DevilsAdvocate
Philosopher
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2004
- Messages
- 7,686
I’m pretty sure Randi has addressed this in the past. If I recall correctly, he said there would not be any standard odds set in the Challenges rules because it is up to the applicant to describe their ability and how they will demonstrate the ability.
As Thabiguy said, this is a challenge. You claim you can do something paranormal. Randi challenges you to do what you say you can do. Then you have to prove it to win the million. If the result could occur by chance alone, the rate of success is determined along with the protocol. The number of trials and number of “hits” required will depend on the claim and the protocol. JREF may have to look at probability, significance, standard deviations, and confidence to determine what would be considered sufficiently unlikely so as to be considered “paranormal” and not just lucky.
If I recall correctly, Randi claimed he never said there is a fixed 1 in 1000 odds, and at one point someone on these forums traced that number back to a really old interview or TV or radio show where Randi tossed that number out as an example of what might be considered sufficient to pass a test and people just picked up on that number, then someone concluded that because the applicant would have to pass both the preliminary and final test the odds would be 1000 * 1000 = 1000000 for the final. Randi has repeated said that the success rate must be stated by the applicant as part of the claim and the final measure of success must be determined with the protocol.
If you look at the challenge applications, I think you will find that the final odds that are accepted are usually well under 1:1000, and usually hit around two standard deviations from the norm. I haven’t seen any instance in the challenge negotiations where JREF required outlandish odds. In my opinion, the odds accepted are usually too low to really be “paranormal”.
As far as long term tests like a Ganzfield test, in theory I don’t think JREF would have any problems, but in practice there are a number of difficulties. JREF relies on various organizations (like local skeptic groups) to conduct the tests and it may be difficult to find an organization that would be willing to put in the time. Of course the applicant would have to cover any costs. It may be possible if the applicant could come up with a good protocol.
As Thabiguy said, this is a challenge. You claim you can do something paranormal. Randi challenges you to do what you say you can do. Then you have to prove it to win the million. If the result could occur by chance alone, the rate of success is determined along with the protocol. The number of trials and number of “hits” required will depend on the claim and the protocol. JREF may have to look at probability, significance, standard deviations, and confidence to determine what would be considered sufficiently unlikely so as to be considered “paranormal” and not just lucky.
If I recall correctly, Randi claimed he never said there is a fixed 1 in 1000 odds, and at one point someone on these forums traced that number back to a really old interview or TV or radio show where Randi tossed that number out as an example of what might be considered sufficient to pass a test and people just picked up on that number, then someone concluded that because the applicant would have to pass both the preliminary and final test the odds would be 1000 * 1000 = 1000000 for the final. Randi has repeated said that the success rate must be stated by the applicant as part of the claim and the final measure of success must be determined with the protocol.
If you look at the challenge applications, I think you will find that the final odds that are accepted are usually well under 1:1000, and usually hit around two standard deviations from the norm. I haven’t seen any instance in the challenge negotiations where JREF required outlandish odds. In my opinion, the odds accepted are usually too low to really be “paranormal”.
As far as long term tests like a Ganzfield test, in theory I don’t think JREF would have any problems, but in practice there are a number of difficulties. JREF relies on various organizations (like local skeptic groups) to conduct the tests and it may be difficult to find an organization that would be willing to put in the time. Of course the applicant would have to cover any costs. It may be possible if the applicant could come up with a good protocol.
). If you confine yourself to considering situations that actually represent the types of claims that people make for the paranormal (rather than for parapsychology research), then most of your concerns over the odds of the Challenge would evaporate.
