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Nuclear comet deflection

Travis

Misanthrope of the Mountains
Joined
Mar 31, 2007
Messages
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A program on the Science Channel tonight laid out a situations where the US decided to not deflect a comet with nuclear weapons and instead merely evacuated the impact area with massive international help.

Aside from the ridiculous idea that the international community would help the US in such a situation I wonder about the merits of the central premise of the program: that a comet would be more likely to break up from a nearby nuclear blast than to be deflected.

What I wonder is even if the comet is fractured into smaller pieces couldn't we then just deflect the smaller pieces? We do have thousands of warheads to use if we need to. I imagine the practicality of it would be dependent on matters of scale and time.
 
Aside from the ridiculous idea that the international community would help the US in such a situation [...]

I recall there had been international offers when New Orleans went under, but alas ... Overall, the United States declined 54 of 77 recorded aid offers from three of its staunchest allies: Canada, Britain and Israel, according to a 40-page State Department table of the offers that had been received as of January 2006. (article)

Maybe it's more a case of "us big. us not wanting help" instead of "why nobody likes us" :confused:

What I wonder is even if the comet is fractured into smaller pieces couldn't we then just deflect the smaller pieces? We do have thousands of warheads to use if we need to. I imagine the practicality of it would be dependent on matters of scale and time.

There are a few problems with the "deflection by nuclear blast" approach:

1) The energy of the impact is the same, wether it's a "cloud of debris" or a "solid object". It's still a helluvalot o' mass, coming in at mind-numbing speed...
2) No air in space. The reason a nuclear detonation causes so much destruction on earth is the huge amount of air moved around by the shockwave. Except for a bunch of pushy photons, there's not much going to happen. Space is BIG and EMPTY...

See: http://www.badastronomy.com/ - Phil Plait does quite a good job of pointing to the facts.
 
The thing about deflecting asteroids or comets is that they have a lot of energy. A comet 20 km in diameter going at 10 km/s has 2x10^23 Joules, as much as a 46 million megaton nuclear explosion (this is really small and slow for a comet, too). The entire nuclear arsenal of the Earth isn't even close to that.

So a nuke can't cause big massive deflection in a comet's orbit. And a big massive deflection is just what you need, if you wait until the last minute.

So the essence of diverting comets and asteroids is to get them while they are many millions of miles away - and that's something that no existing weapons system can do. ICBMs might reach orbit, but that's the best they can generally manage. No platform exists to deliver nukes far from Earth, and building one would cost billions and take years.

It might well work out more cost effective to just take the hit... depending on the size of the comet of course.
 
Ok something has always bothered me about that scenario and perhaps someone could explain it to me. What would actually deflect or damage the comet/asteroid? It was my impression that the destructive force of a nuclear blast (that which destroys buildings and such at a distance and presumably this comet) is the shock wave generated. Wouldn't this require air? So how would it impact a comet or asteroid is space? I know there are other forces generated such as heat but I don't see how they would necessarily work to change the course of a comet.
 
Ok something has always bothered me about that scenario and perhaps someone could explain it to me. What would actually deflect or damage the comet/asteroid? It was my impression that the destructive force of a nuclear blast (that which destroys buildings and such at a distance and presumably this comet) is the shock wave generated. Wouldn't this require air? So how would it impact a comet or asteroid is space? I know there are other forces generated such as heat but I don't see how they would necessarily work to change the course of a comet.

In a word - photons. The damage caused by nuclear weapons is largely from the shockwave, but that shockwave doesn't just appear out of nowhere, it is caused by the energy released in the nuclear reaction. Even if there is no air, that energy is still there. While an individual photon may not have much energy or momentum, if you have a lot of them it all adds up. Even just the radiation from the Sun is enough to have an effect on the orbit and rotation of asteroids, and in principle could power spacecraft using solar sails. The radiation from a nuclear explosion nearby would be far more intense. In fact, a nuclear explosion in a vacuum could be far more effective than one in an atmosphere. Shockwaves tend to be very lossy phenomena, so a lot of the energy from the explosion is wasted that wouldn't be in a vacuum.

However, shockwaves can have some advantages. In space, a minimum of 50% of the radiation will be emitted away from the target and is wasted. In air, and near the ground, some of that energy can still contribute due to absorption, reflection and so on. Overall though, while a nuclear explosion in space may not do as much damage, more energy and momentum will be transmitted to the target.

Burying the bomb inside the target would ensure that all the energy was tramsitted to it, but would waste most of that in damaging it rather than actually moving it. However, it is thought that many asteroids and comets are actually just loose collections of rubble, without enough gravity to compact them into a solid body. In this case, having a bomb at the centre could push the rubble in different directions, so some might miss altogether and the bits that do still hit would arrive more spread out in time resulting, hopefully, in an intense meteor shower rather than a single massive impact.

Edit: However, there are still three problems, two already mentioned by Seismosaur. Firstly, you need to get there very early. Last minute heroics work in Holywood, but not in real life. You're almost certainly looking at at least a couple of years if you want any chance of actually deflecting anything. Secondly, we actually know very little about asteroids and comets, so it is very hard to know what the effects of any actions would actually be. A bomb might push it as planned, it might blow it apart and it might have almost no effect. Until we try it, we just don't know. Thirdly, we don't actually have any way of getting nuclear weapons to the right place. This is probably the least of the problems from a technical point of view since we know we can already send things to asteroids, it's just a matter of doing so with warheads. Politically, however, the idea of sending nuclear weapons into space is a rather tricky matter.
 
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There is actually a solution for this. It's pretty easy, too.

Airbags.

Actually, giant bags of water or foam. It's designed to give _resistance_ to the explosion, and cause it to be transmitted to the asteroid.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2730-cosmic-airbag-could-save-the-planet.html

I love simple solutions to complex problems.

It's an interesting idea, but has nothing to do with nuclear explosions. An airbag would simply provide something to push against in the case of a rubble asteroid rather than a solid one. Also, they certainly wouldn't be full of water or foam, which would be ridiculously big and heavy to fly into space, they would be filled with some kind of gas, probably one produced by reaction from much smaller reactants.

As I say, it's a nice idea, but probably completely impractical. To start with, that's a lot of mass you have to get there. Not necessarily a problem on its own, but once it's there you still need to actually do the pushing, which requires a whole load more fuel. In addition, there aren't currently any materials which would be tough enough to do this. It would not only need to stand up to a lot of pressure, but would need to be tough enough not to get even a single hole from pointy rocks, and yet still be light enough to launch and small enough to fit in a rocket. Maybe a long way in the future, but at the moment, no.
 
We just need a long enough pole, and a big enough nylon sheet. Viola, Earth-sized Umbrella!

In seriousness, though, I thought the idea behind deflection wasn't so much the explosion pushing the rock, but the heat from the blast causing "venting" on the comet via vaporization of the ices. Essentially, man-made jets that would push the comet, just like they sometimes get naturally.

So how far into left field am I there?
 
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We just need a long enough pole, and a big enough nylon sheet. Viola, Earth-sized Umbrella!

In seriousness, though, I thought the idea behind deflection wasn't so much the explosion pushing the rock, but the heat from the blast causing "venting" on the comet via vaporization of the ices. Essentially, man-made jets that would push the comet, just like they sometimes get naturally.

So how far into left field am I there?

Interesting. Maybe, instead of a nuclear bomb, you'd want to use a nuclear reactor to simply generate heat and initiate venting.

If that works, I suspect that the appropriate reactor is a very, very simple one; think of the "criticality accidents" that killed Louis Slotin and Harry Daghlian. Size- and mass-wise, it's a lot closer to being a bomb than to being a reactor core. (No shielding/containment/etc. needed.) You want to build a (somewhat regulated) version of that, sit it on the comet's surface, and let it start melting a hole. Even an RTG might work: process a few gigacuries of nuclear waste, put a 20kW of minor actinides into a heat-sinking case, and drop that onto your comet. Doesn't even need a gentle landing.
 
With a comet especially, a nearby nuke would vapourise a lot of surface ice and make it jet out away from the comet. The comet would then feel and equal and opposite force from this escaping water.
 
If you don't build nukes, the comets will win!

:boxedin:

Most of our nuclear research would be of little use since you would probably be looking to build a big multistage fusion device that no one really bothers with because from a militry point of view they are not very useful.
 
Most of our nuclear research would be of little use since you would probably be looking to build a big multistage fusion device that no one really bothers with because from a militry point of view they are not very useful.

This is twice now that the same style of joke has failed...

Jimbo07's jokes: FAIL!
 
A push on a comet would be better than blowing stuff off it.
A low energy push over a long period of time would move the orbit sufficiently to have the thing miss the earth, I would expect.
There aren't any such "pushers" though.
Nuke the sumbitch -after- it passes, if the -next- pass is gonna be the big one.
That might alter the outgoing orbit enough to have nothing more than a meteor shower when/if it comes back.
 
A push on a comet would be better than blowing stuff off it.
A low energy push over a long period of time would move the orbit sufficiently to have the thing miss the earth, I would expect.
There aren't any such "pushers" though.

There are a few candidates but you run into problems with dectecting the things soon enough.
 
There's a couple ways to do it. If I was going to do it for a spacefaring civilization, I'd have early warning systems, and several asteroids in wide orbits around the planet, loaded with rockets to change their orbit. You could store kinetic energy in those until you had a target, then alter their course until they slammed into it. That would liquify both objects, and totally disrupt the hit (not to mention fragmenting it into pieces that would burn up in the atmosphere).
 
1) The energy of the impact is the same, wether it's a "cloud of debris" or a "solid object". It's still a helluvalot o' mass, coming in at mind-numbing speed...

Every time I hear that I think about a shotgun blast. While the mass is the same, as well as the speed, a slug does one heck of a lot more damage than a load of birdshot. Be it a sheet of plywood or a human body.
 
Every time I hear that I think about a shotgun blast. While the mass is the same, as well as the speed, a slug does one heck of a lot more damage than a load of birdshot. Be it a sheet of plywood or a human body.

Well, it kinda depends. A slug does a lot of damage locally, but compare a slug to 00 buck, and it starts getting iffy. The slug has greater penetration, but the buck has a wider spread and can do a lot more damage to soft tissue. A better example is to compare your shotgun (with buck or bird shot) to a rifle. Or even better, compare a .45 caliber pistol to a 9mm pistol. The 9mm round actually has a higher muzzle energy...but the .45 is MUCH better at rapidly transferring its energy to the target.

In the case of a comet/asteroid, it really doesn't take much penetration to wipe out everything on the surface; Tuskonga (sp?-the Russian place) was an air burst, for example. So, you might have a half-mile deep crater 4 miles in diameter in one location, compared to 32 1/8th of a mile deep craters a half-mile in diameter, for example (this is just a back-of-the-envelope calc based on the ratio of volumes excavated, but illustrates the general idea).

Of course, there are extremes on each end. If an impacter is big enough, it really doesn't matter if it's one chunk or a lot of pieces. If an impacter is small enough, the pieces may be so small they'll burn in atmosphere rather than impact.

I don;t have exact figures, but I've heard fairly consistently that an impact of lot sof small particles is worse than a large one, assuming the particles are large enough to actually impact.
 
Considering an ocean impact, preferably deep ocean, far from land, many small pieces would be far less destructive than one huge impact. Especially if they come in a line, so the earth spins and spreads out the impact zone.

Smaller pieces may not bury themselves deep through the crust, but shatter in the water, and just impact the crust, rather than blowing through into magma, leading to a planet killing event.

Many smaller tsunamis would be less destructive than one huge one.

And there would be more atmospheric braking and energy transfer, many small pieces would present more surface area to heat and expend energy. Every square meter that burns is less to impact.
 

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