• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Nuclear comet deflection

If you don't build nukes, the comets will win!

:boxedin:

....and we definatley can't lose the Comet Race!



Seriously, let's assume that, like the program I watched, we only have four months until impact. We'd need to deflect the comet an awful lot to avoid an impact, probably up to 10+ degrees. Assuming a 1.5 kilometer wide comet, with a typical rock/ice ratio of deep period comets, how many standoff 1 megaton blasts might be needed in succession to achieve such a deflection?
 
....and we definatley can't lose the Comet Race!
Seriously, let's assume that, like the program I watched, we only have four months until impact. We'd need to deflect the comet an awful lot to avoid an impact, probably up to 10+ degrees. Assuming a 1.5 kilometer wide comet, with a typical rock/ice ratio of deep period comets, how many standoff 1 megaton blasts might be needed in succession to achieve such a deflection?
.
What possible vehicle could be assembled beginning -today- for a launch in 4 months, with a nuke for the comet?
 
In seriousness, though, I thought the idea behind deflection wasn't so much the explosion pushing the rock, but the heat from the blast causing "venting" on the comet via vaporization of the ices. Essentially, man-made jets that would push the comet, just like they sometimes get naturally.

So how far into left field am I there?

This could make sense for comets, but that is not what is usually discussed. The most likely thing to hit Earth would be an asteroid, specifically a near-Earth asteroid (that is, one of the ones that orbits around the same distance from the Sun as the Earth - obviously any asteroid would have to be near at some point if it's going to hit us). Asteroids are made of rock and metal, so no venting. Any defense system would have to cover all possible dangers, so designing one specifically to work via venting, which wouldn't work on the most likely dangers, wouldn't be all that helpful.

Considering an ocean impact, preferably deep ocean, far from land, many small pieces would be far less destructive than one huge impact. Especially if they come in a line, so the earth spins and spreads out the impact zone.

They wouldn't be in a line. When people talk about asteroids as clouds of debris, they don't mean a huge cloud spread all over the place, they mean a collection of stuff held together by gravity, but without enough gravity to compact it all into a solid mass.

The problem in an impact is that the amount of energy is ridiculously big. It doesn't matter if it's one big rock or a collection of small rocks, when it hits, pretty much the whole thing, along with whatever it lands on, will be instantly vapourised when the kinetic energy is cnoverted to heat.

Incidentally, when you say "preferably far from land", that may actually be the worst possible case. An asteroid hitting land would make a big crater, wipe out anything in the vicinity and throw up a load of dust that would probably last for a year or two and would have an effect similar to, but probably more severe than, major volcanic erruptions. An asteroid hitting the sea would create tsunamis that would race around the entire world, and would release a massive amount of water into the atmosphere with major effects on the climate as well as disruption to the circulating currents which are an important factor in stabilising the climate. Obviously we can't be sure unless it actually happens, but most people working in this area consider an oceanic a much worse scenario than a land one.

Smaller pieces may not bury themselves deep through the crust, but shatter in the water, and just impact the crust, rather than blowing through into magma, leading to a planet killing event.

As far as I know, no-one has ever suggested an asteroid actually punching through the crust. Even some of the biggest impacts we've had, such as the KT boundary collision that got the dinosaurs, didn't even come close. There is debate about whether large impacts can influence tectonic activity due to the shock, and this certainly seems likely, but it's nothing to do with actually punching through to the mantle.

Many smaller tsunamis would be less destructive than one huge one.

Well, not necessarily. In any case, as explained above, the tsunami resulting from one large rock hitting the sea would be exactly the same as the tsunami resulting from a large, gravitationally bound collection of rocks all landing in the same place at the same time.

And there would be more atmospheric braking and energy transfer, many small pieces would present more surface area to heat and expend energy. Every square meter that burns is less to impact.

Firstly, as explained above, it's the energy transfer that's the whole problem in the first place. Secondly, there would be no difference in surface area or resistance between a single rock and a collection of rocks. What's important is not the total surface area, but the surface area in contact with the atmosphere. The front edge of the impacting body will push all air out of the way in a shockwave, so anything behind that won't have anything to offer it resistance anyway.

As a caveat - this all applies to large impacts on the scale of mass-extinction events. This would almost certainly be the case for a comet, but asteroids come in much smaller sizes. In a large impact, all that really matters is the total kinetic energy, but below a certain size, you're looking more at localised damage rather than global effects, and in that case the details become more important and some of your points have merit.
 
I recall there had been international offers when New Orleans went under, but alas ... Overall, the United States declined 54 of 77 recorded aid offers from three of its staunchest allies: Canada, Britain and Israel, according to a 40-page State Department table of the offers that had been received as of January 2006. (article)

What happened to other 23 aid offers?
 
This could make sense for comets, but that is not what is usually discussed. The most likely thing to hit Earth would be an asteroid, specifically a near-Earth asteroid (that is, one of the ones that orbits around the same distance from the Sun as the Earth - obviously any asteroid would have to be near at some point if it's going to hit us). Asteroids are made of rock and metal, so no venting.

A rock and metal asteroid is a whole 'nother story. This thread says comets.

Asteroids could be deflected with ease, and long before they reach a point where they are going to pass close to us. Because they are in orbit, we could nudge them repeatedly, altering the orbit.

Definitely don't want to blow one of them into pieces.
 
.
What possible vehicle could be assembled beginning -today- for a launch in 4 months, with a nuke for the comet?

I invoke Deus Ex Machina and say that the government already has a secret spacecraft capable of taking a warhead sized payload out of Earth's gravity well for reasons only known to them.:p
 
If you don't care about possible loss of craft and crew, it would be possible to launch multiple missions to attack a comet, in very short time. Russian heavy lifters as well as Shuttle missions, with ISS refueling.

Unmanned missions would be even faster.
 
A rock and metal asteroid is a whole 'nother story. This thread says comets.

True. However, as I already mentioned, no-one really separates the two for this kind of discussion. When people talk about deflecting an object from hitting Earth, they mean any object, since the mechanics of both deflection and impact are pretty much the same. The gravity of Jupiter may be capable of breaking up a comet by tidal forces, but Earth certainly isn't going to manage that. Comet or asteroid, if something decides to hit us, it's going to a damn big lump hitting us all in one go.

Asteroids could be deflected with ease, and long before they reach a point where they are going to pass close to us. Because they are in orbit, we could nudge them repeatedly, altering the orbit.

Comets aren't in orbit? I know plenty of astronomers who would be pretty surprised to hear that.

I Ratant said:
What possible vehicle could be assembled beginning -today- for a launch in 4 months, with a nuke for the comet?

As Robinsons says, this really wouldn't be that difficult. We have plenty of different vehicles which are capable of this sort of thing, and we have plenty of warheads available. Such missions may not be as carefully planned as is usual, and they almost certainly wouldn't be able to pick the best launch windows, but as long as you don't worry about losing a few people, nuclear warheads and billions dollars, there's nothing stopping us doing it right now.
 
Comets aren't in orbit? I know plenty of astronomers who would be pretty surprised to hear that.

I should have been more precise. A near earth asteroid is going to pass close to us multiple times (close being a relative term of course) before we both meet, allowing for multiple hits with Nukes, to deflect the orbit, so we do not meet.

A comet, which of course is in an orbit, comes out of the Oort Cloud on a large orbit, and we are only going to know about it once it is near (again, relatively speaking), at which point there is only one horrible fact, it is going to intersect with us, meaning we have very little time.

But, blowing a comet to pieces is going to make it less destructive, in the case of a direct impact. For multiple reasons. (This is all conjecture of course). Some of the matter will fly at angles keeping it from hitting us at all.

Imagine 200 or so 100 Megaton warheads, in the middle of the debris cloud, blowing chunks in all directions, vaporising some matter, creating a bunch of smaller objects. Every Kiloton of matter we stop from direct impact, is that much less damage.

Water impact would be more destructive to people, but less destructive for long term climate. Water vapor, steam and tsunamis all can be dealt with better than the cloud of dust, ash and CO2 from the fires and hammer blow of a land hit. It might prevent a magma releasing event, less seismic stress, coastal areas can be evacuated before the event.

The planet would recover from the years of rainfall and flooding better than a nuclear winter from the dust and ash clouds, which could kick us into an Ice Age.

As Robinsons[sic] says, this really wouldn't be that difficult.

I love it when somebody is smart enough to agree with me.
 
I invoke Deus Ex Machina and say that the government already has a secret spacecraft capable of taking a warhead sized payload out of Earth's gravity well for reasons only known to them.:p

.
Invoking divine intervention...fingering out which launches placed nasty stuff in orbit for future use back here, and then re-targeting to get out of the gravity well... It would require divine aid.
A warhead would be the typical response to the extra-terrestial threat, but fraught with exaberating and undesired results when the debris comes down.
The best vehicle would be one that could lamprey onto the incoming thingy, and deflect it intact.
The existence of such a beast is less than highly unlikely!
Re-targetable outside the earth's immediate vicinity would require having a very sophisticated vehicle already available.
And visible.
 

Back
Top Bottom