Merged Now What?

[McHrozni]

I agree that there should be a close examination of the terms (or even the terms we are pursuing) but I don't think that the government of the day will put it to a referendum, just in case we get the "wrong" answer. Personally as much as I'd like to remain in the EU, I cannot see this happening. No matter how unfavourable or badly fudged the position the UK will have to leave the EU to abide by the terms of the referendum - solely IMO.

There's a small but important difference between something being absolutely necessary and actually doing it. Without a referendum on what kind of Brexit is to be sought, the plurality of the electorate - perhaps even a clear majority - will end up being dissatisfied and have a very good case of their will not being followed and their voices not being heard, for no good reason. That is, IF the MPs agree on what they want to pursue at all, which is far from a given.

If Tories are fine with that, fine. They'll only screw themselves all over again anyway.

I do find it peculiar that membership of the EU typically required several general elections as the government negotiated, plus a referendum to join the Union. However that can be all undone by a simple majority in a single referendum, that can never be undone, even if it becomes clear immediately afterwards those who campaigned to Leave based their campaign on lies, and never had a plan to actually leave the EU in the first place.

McHrozni

 

[Belz...]

No sorry. This is important. Your one-line retorts won't do.

Those retorts are what I think. If they're not long enough for you, that isn't my problem.

No the question was IDENTITY.

That term gets thrown around way too much, as if someone can change reality by "identifying". I identify as awesome. You have to consider me awesome; otherwise you are invalidating my experiences.

I am afraid this is overly literal wrt to my meaning. Maybe a review of what I wrote would be in order.

I don't even know what you're asking, now. What did you mean, then, when you said you were European?

 

[McHrozni]

Those retorts are what I think.

I ... would not be this open about it if I were you.

There is no way to explain why without it being easily misunderstood as an insult.

McHrozni

 

[Aepervius]

Those retorts are what I think. If they're not long enough for you, that isn't my problem.



That term gets thrown around way too much, as if someone can change reality by "identifying". I identify as awesome. You have to consider me awesome; otherwise you are invalidating my experiences.



I don't even know what you're asking, now. What did you mean, then, when you said you were European?

Identity has direct life consequence, as it shapes your political view and how you want the future to be shaped. I am on paper french. But as identity I am European but if push come to shoves, then i would campaign for something which would impact negatively France as long as it impacts positively Europe as a whole.

I would not do that if I identified as French rather than European.

There is a huge gap between what paper identify you , and what people identify to. One is jsut an administrative steps, the other is how you shape your life.

Your example is just incredibly childish sorry.

 

[cullennz]

Identity has direct life consequence, as it shapes your political view and how you want the future to be shaped. I am on paper french. But as identity I am European but if push come to shoves, then i would campaign for something which would impact negatively France as long as it impacts positively Europe as a whole.

I would not do that if I identified as French rather than European.

There is a huge gap between what paper identify you , and what people identify to. One is jsut an administrative steps, the other is how you shape your life.

Your example is just incredibly childish sorry.

That is all fine except if the balance of power starts serving self interest

 

[catsmate]

I was talking about this very perspective. The EU is not particularly keen on rewarding the UK for leaving, which is to be expected. Overall I think the EU will likely end up on top, it will loose the problem child of the UK, while probably retaining the British market and whatnot, maybe even taking significant business currently based in the UK.

Indeed, "EEA-minus" isn't going to happen, despite the claims of some Leave aficionados; France and Belgium have already stated it is unacceptable to them.
So Britain, after making other concessions, accepts a Norway level of access, obeys many EU regulations (without any control over such rules), pays into the EU budget (probably 20-30% less than as an EU member) and accept free movement of labour.
Or the UK rejects this and negotiates a free-trade deal of some sort (which would take far more than two years) and watches the services sector leave en-masse and GDP drop by 10% as it looses guaranteed access to the common market.

 

[MikeG]

.....Or the UK rejects this and negotiates a free-trade deal of some sort (which would take far more than two years) and watches the services sector leave en-masse and GDP drop by 10% as it looses guaranteed access to the common market.

Ahemmmm
Where did you get your 10% figure from?

 

[McHrozni]

So Britain, after making other concessions, accepts a Norway level of access, obeys many EU regulations (without any control over such rules), pays into the EU budget (probably 20-30% less than as an EU member) and accept free movement of labour.
Or the UK rejects this and negotiates a free-trade deal of some sort (which would take far more than two years) and watches the services sector leave en-masse and GDP drop by 10% as it looses guaranteed access to the common market.

Note that the EU comes out on top in either of these two scenarios. In fact, the only scenario where EU doesn't end up on top are scenarios that the Brexit ironically made significantly less likely - countries start to exit the EU en masse. Brexit has already demonstrated that is a bad idea, so the enthusiasm has waned off somewhat quite quickly.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Where did you get your 10% figure from?

I think that figure was demonstrated several times over.

It doesn't include Scotland leaving incidentally, so it could easily be 20% of GDP. This would put the emasculated UK behind France immediately.

McHrozni

 

[Amazer]

Ahemmmm
Where did you get your 10% figure from?

Would it make you feel better if it was only a 5% drop in GDP? There seems to be a wide-ranging consensus that UK FS would suffer, and suffer badly at the hands of Brexit.

Or do you foresee massive growth in other industries that would more or less offset the losses your Financial Services would suffer because of a loss of access to the common market?

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Indeed, "EEA-minus" isn't going to happen, despite the claims of some Leave aficionados; France and Belgium have already stated it is unacceptable to them.

Indeed. It is not spiteful, or only so, that this should be the case, as other states and regions should not be encouraged to think EU Lite, or Out.

So Britain, after making other concessions, accepts a Norway level of access, obeys many EU regulations (without any control over such rules), pays into the EU budget (probably 20-30% less than as an EU member) and accept free movement of labour.
Or the UK rejects this and negotiates a free-trade deal of some sort (which would take far more than two years) and watches the services sector leave en-masse and GDP drop by 10% as it looses guaranteed access to the common market.

These do seem to be the options. Celerity and clarity are needed to avoid the second if going for the first. Worst case: dalliance with a Brexit state of flux, threatening but not acting on Art50, as I think after a while even more businesses would rethink the sanity of investing in the UK.

 

[McHrozni]

Indeed. It is not spiteful, or only so, that this should be the case, as other states and regions should not be encouraged to think EU Lite, or Out.

There's another factor: EU stands to gain a lot from British loss. The financial sector will move to other EU countries - Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are commonly mentioned candidates to take a piece of the pie. With that in mind, the EU has very rational economic reasons to deny the common market to the UK, if the UK won't offer substantial concessions in return. The loss of British market could be entirely compensated by the gain of British businesses.

Rarely has so much been sacrificed by so few to gain so little.

McHrozni

 

[abaddon]

And now we are down to one candidate for PM.

Hello democracy.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

There's another factor: EU stands to gain a lot from British loss. The financial sector will move to other EU countries - Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are commonly mentioned candidates to take a piece of the pie. With that in mind, the EU has very rational economic reasons to deny the common market to the UK, if the UK won't offer substantial concessions in return. The loss of British market could be entirely compensated by the gain of British businesses.

Rarely has so much been sacrificed by so few to gain so little.

McHrozni

Oh, sure, I'll agree with you on that. Were I in the EU financial services industry, the planning and execution meetings would be daily, with evening follow up. The art of pie-grabbing, par excellence. But I think this is more the private sector (and some unfortunate public figures), as EU governments, and certainly Merkel, realize there is also the long game.

 

[McHrozni]

Well, at least now we know what to expect:

There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it through the back door ... Brexit means Brexit

and

Article 50 should not be filed until the end of 2016

If I were in charge of any appropriate institution in the EU, I'd start planning a couple of big fairs designed especially to attract British businesses to move to my country before uncertainty sets in. That way I could benefit whatever the end result would be.

As a side note, I fully expect her to find an excuse not to invoke A50. There are plenty of good reasons, not being able to agree upon what negotiating position to take seems like a fairly good one too.

McHrozni

 

[Lothian]

And now we are down to one candidate for PM.

Hello democracy.

Meh, It was the same when Blair gave it to Brown. People in the UK don't vote for a PM they vote for an MP. They decide themselves on the rules to pick a PM.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

And now we are down to one candidate for PM.

Hello democracy.

Get thee back! Thou depresseth me overmuch. May thine wooden teeth fall out and clatter.

 

[MikeG]

Would it make you feel better if it was only a 5% drop in GDP? There seems to be a wide-ranging consensus that UK FS would suffer, and suffer badly at the hands of Brexit.........

What would make me feel better was people supporting their claims. That's all. I'm interested in where this figure comes from. Figures which aren't supported by fact have an odd habit of becoming accepted wisdom.

 

[MikeG]

And now we are down to one candidate for PM.

Hello democracy.

Asking the blue rinse brigade in the shires who they prefer can be seen as democracy, can it?

 

[Craig B]

All the Brexiteers have now disappeared from the mighty struggle for the salvation of the fatherland. Not merely a scurvy crew but a laughable one! Was there ever such a shameful response to an alleged victory for the common people, by their self proclaimed champions.

Now in their absence a handful of Tory MPs chooses a Prime Minister. Farage taunted the continental MEPs, "you're not laughing now". But I bet they're splitting their sides.