Merged Now What?

[McHrozni]

True, but we can use a reasonable mathematical model to come up with a good approximation. We have 40odd years of data to work with.

The assumption is that membership in the EU is the dominating factor in the change of growth levels. You'll need to prove that is the case first. Good luck with that.

If you try to do a serious analysis, don't bother. It was already done, by multiple experts - actual experts in the field, not politicians - and they only disagree on how bad the whole thing will be for the UK. They're unanimous on it would be bad for the UK economically and otherwise.

In other words, it was all already done, and it was dismissed out of hand by the Brexitards. "This country has had enough of experts" is typically not a good way to start making your plans. Since it's clear there was no analysis and no plan made for the whole thing, the UK needs a miracle to avoid disaster.

McHrozni

 

[cullennz]

OK we've reached "bargaining". Eagerly awaiting "depression"

I think it might be begging

 

[angrysoba]

Ridiculous. No plan/s that Vote Leave could ever make would have any authority because............get this...............they weren't/ aren't the government, or fighting to be elected as the government. I'm really not sure how much simpler I can make this for you, and I'm sorry that you can't understand this very basic point.

As an illustration, if Gisela Stuart had said "we intend to spend an extra £5 billion a year on the NHS" what impact would that have had on George Osborne's plans, do you think?

This is ultimately the problem with putting it to a referendum. Nobody can be held to account, unlike parties or governments that can be voted out if they fail to do what they said they would in parliament. The Lib Dems were destroyed, for example, for being in a government that went against the promises of their campaign manifestos.

Farage is not in power, Boris and Gove are now done for. It falls to Theresa May to go through with Brexit (presumably). But it is an unenviable task given that she declared herself a remained and given that a significant number of leavers will expect an end to free movement of workers, another group may demand to stay in the single market even if it means retaining free movement of workers, while still more will demand more money for public services now that they no longer have to pay the EU despite the problems that could be caused by a stricken economy leaving little left over for that.

I put it to you that there will be some bitterly disappointed Brexiteers by the time it's over.

 

[MikeG]

........If you try to do a serious analysis, don't bother. It was already done, by multiple experts - actual experts in the field, not politicians - and they only disagree on how bad the whole thing will be for the UK. They're unanimous on it would be bad for the UK economically ......

Again, I agree with this. Again, however, not all decisions are or should be economic. Having said that, could you ever get half a dozen economists to agree on a forecast for the following year when we were a member of the EU and enjoying stable economic times? Pick any years forecast in the last say 20 and see how they stacked up against the reality. Therefore, why could you expect people to accept forecasts for 2020 from these very same people?

 

[cullennz]

Not being funny but as a little bro" commonwealth country.

Can you stop bitching about who said she said over the referendum?

Your emarrassing my late great grand dad.

It is done. Now deal with it as best as possible for the UK

 

[MikeG]

.....Farage is not in power.......

Not only that, but as he never had any prospect of power anyone who took anything Farage said as being authoritative was deluding themselves.

.....I put it to you that there will be some bitterly disappointed Brexiteers by the time it's over.

I'm 100% certain you'll be right.

 

[McHrozni]

Again, I agree with this. Again, however, not all decisions are or should be economic.

Yeah? Name one argument for Leave that isn't inherently a question of economics. In case you somehow manage that you also need to show it trumps the economic downsides in some way. Good luck with that.

Having said that, could you ever get half a dozen economists to agree on a forecast for the following year when we were a member of the EU and enjoying stable economic times? Pick any years forecast in the last say 20 and see how they stacked up against the reality. Therefore, why could you expect people to accept forecasts for 2020 from these very same people?

Because unlike with those forecasts, they all agree on they key point UK will be worse off it if exits the EU, for starters. The uncertainty is only in how bad it will be, and this in no small part depends on the politics. Thus far, the politics have been pointing to the worst possible outcome.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Again, I agree with this. Again, however, not all decisions are or should be economic. Having said that, could you ever get half a dozen economists to agree on a forecast for the following year when we were a member of the EU and enjoying stable economic times? Pick any years forecast in the last say 20 and see how they stacked up against the reality. Therefore, why could you expect people to accept forecasts for 2020 from these very same people?

I guess it depends on what constitutes agreement (with each other or reality). If all 20 economists forecast growth is that agreement ? Is a forecast of 0.1% contraction in the economy when there is 0.5% growth more or less in agreement than a forecast of 1.5% growth ?

 

[MikeG]

......It is done. Now deal with it as best as possible for the UK

Absolutely. I think I may have said this a couple of dozen times already.

 

[MikeG]

Yeah? Name one argument for Leave that isn't inherently a question of economics. .........

What.......you can't even be bothered to read the previous page? Is that laziness, or just a mindless attempt at point-scoring?

 

[MikeG]

I guess it depends on what constitutes agreement (with each other or reality). If all 20 economists forecast growth is that agreement ? Is a forecast of 0.1% contraction in the economy when there is 0.5% growth more or less in agreement than a forecast of 1.5% growth ?

I guess you'd need to set parameters (I dunno.......+/- X%) and judge against that. Not my department, guv, as someone has already said to me this morning the the real world.

 

[Belz...]

I'm sure some are, but that's probably why they disagree with me in the first place. Causality is different from what you imply it to be.

That's a distinction without a difference, as the end result is the same: you cannot allow them a legitimate reason for disagreeing with you.

 

[Belz...]

And I said that that's wrong, because they did present several plans to people during the campaign, but thy lied about yhose.

No, that's not wrong. They still didn't need a plan.

It's not proof, no. It's an indication of what's happening in the world. Might want to check it out.

Still no evidence for your claim.

And it was what I claimed.

No you said it was "breaking".

Yes, it was what I claimed.

It really wasn't. You said it was their job to have a plan. When I said that it wasn't, and that they had to campaign for Leave, you changed your claim to "they lied", which isn't the same thing at all. It also doesn't counter what I said.

After having cofee, this paragraph is even dumber than it appeared to be.

Maybe you should quit coffee, then.

Not only are you saying that you don't need a plan for what to do before voting for sweeping change, you are also saying that the Brexiters were asking the people what their pman should be.

I'm only saying the former, not the latter. I have no idea what reading could lead you to think I was saying the latter. You have, also, not in any way explained why they should have a plan when the only concern was determining what people wanted: leave or remain. Sure, they _could_ have had a plan, but it wasn't required at that juncture.

 

[McHrozni]

What.......you can't even be bothered to read the previous page? Is that laziness, or just a mindless attempt at point-scoring?

No, it's that all reasons for Leave are either economic or made up. Not all decisions need to be economic in nature, but if we remove the economic reasons and the lies (a fair request, I would think) for the Leave option, what is left, exactly?

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

That's a distinction without a difference, as the end result is the same: you cannot allow them a legitimate reason for disagreeing with you.

No, I allow for legitimate reasons for disagreement with me. I welcome it, and have changed my opinion based on those reasons in the past (on smoking, for example).

But if I see a reason that I can demonstrate it's not legitimate I will not hesitate in pulling it down. It's usually called "debating", and not typically seen as something inherently bad in a free and open society.

McHrozni

 

[MikeG]

No, it's that all reasons for Leave are either economic or made up........

You just keep on telling yourself this. If you say it really loudly and really often you might actually convince someone, you never know.

We're out. Done. Finished. Soon-to-be-Ex-members.

Stress all you like about it (really, do please, it's amusing), but you can't change the fact that we're heading permanently out of the door, for better or worse. You might think it productive to spend your time abusing those you don't agree with on the subject, but many would think it better to stop looking back and instead start making plans for the future. What's done is done, now let's get on and make this place work. Your mileage will vary, as always.

 

[McHrozni]

Stress all you like about it (really, do please, it's amusing), but you can't change the fact that we're heading permanently out of the door, for better or worse.

I'm looking forward to it, but I'd still like to see whether there are reasons for Leave that are neither economic nor made up. Your claim is that Leave doesn't need to be an economic decision, so I'm interested in what other reasons that other reasons are there.

If you consider that abuse you should seek professional help.

McHrozni

 

[Lothian]

Campaign promises does not equal " a plan" especially in a cross party political campaign where there isn't even a united campaign HQ.

Please explain what the leave campaign promises were if they were not ....er.....promises of action.

 

[MikeG]

I'm looking forward to it, but I'd still like to see whether there are reasons for Leave that are neither economic nor made up. Your claim is that Leave doesn't need to be an economic decision, so I'm interested in what other reasons that other reasons are there.......

I am not going to go back to yesterday evenings postings just because you are too lazy. There is plenty in there.

 

[Tolls]

Not only that, but as he never had any prospect of power anyone who took anything Farage said as being authoritative was deluding themselves.

I'm sure you just called a chunk of the Leave voters deluded...