Merged Now What?

[GlennB]

I think Garrison means the deal as it stands when the deadline looms and it's time to poop or get off the pot.

What deal is that? The EU has already abandoned the concessions agreed in Feb (?) as they were conditional on the UK remaining in the EU. I can't see any deal 'on the table' that we can accept or reject at our leisure.

 

[Darat]

Er, the UK will not be able to insist on the terms. What do we think we're going to say to the rest of the EU? "Give us what we demand or we'll change our minds and remain!"?

Could be a good threat!

 

[CapelDodger]

What deal is that?

Nobody knows.

The EU has already abandoned the concessions agreed in Feb (?) as they were conditional on the UK remaining in the EU. I can't see any deal 'on the table' that we can accept or reject at our leisure.

Negotiations haven't started so negotiating positions have not been set out. When Article 50 is triggered there'll be two years to agree on future arrangements, or the UK gets the standard deal if no agreement can be reached. That final deal is what the second referendum would be about, the question being is it worth leaving on that basis?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

But they will tackle the job with distinctly varying degrees of enthusiasm, and of course they could always hold a 2nd referendum on the Brexit terms themselves.

I don't see how there can be a 2nd referendum on terms unless the EU really really want the UK to stay and will bend over backwards to keep them.

2 years to negotiate a deal, put the deal to the public and then vote on it? And hope the public give you the result you want? I hope they've learned a lesson on that by now.

 

[GlennB]

Could be a good threat!

True, actually.

"Anything! Demand anything and it's yours!! Just go!!! Here, take The Algarve, Portugal says that's fine"

 

[CapelDodger]

I don't think so. I think he's quite a bright chap. However, his public persona is poor, his manner (whilst ultra-polite) is just odd, and he has rubbed people up the wrong way whichever department he has been in. There wouldn't be a teacher in the country who would vote for him, for instance, after his time at the DofE.

Cameron has described Gove as a "bit of a Maoist" who believes in permanent revolution and creative destruction. His attitude towards experts (such as teachers in the education field) is a manifestation of that.

 

[Francesca R]

I don't see how there can be a 2nd referendum on terms unless the EU really really want the UK to stay

They certainly didn't want the UK to go, as didn't most UK politicians.

Lots of people are angry/upset/other-emotions now but that will give way. Well for most of them it will. Some folks can be perpetually pissed off.

 

[Fengirl]

I'd be interested to get others' opinions of this analysis by three constitutional scholars on the question of what must happen next to trigger Brexit.

My tl:dr summary of what they are saying is as follows:

1. Article 50 can only be invoked in line with the constitutional requirements of the member state wishing to leave.
2. The UK constitution provdes two potential mechanisms for invoking Art. 50: an Act of Paliament giving the PM the authority to do so, OR the exercise of the Royal Prerogative.
3. The exercise of the prerogative in these circumstances would overturn centuries of well-established legal precedent that says prerogative powers must NOT be used to overturn statute - the statute in question here being the European Communities Act of 1972.

The ramifications of the PM using the prerogative and triggering Art. 50 without an Act of Paliament - the ramifications, that is, for parliamentary sovereignty and the separation of powers - are so vast (and chilling, if you really think about it) that they dwarf the Brexit decision.

I haven't paid any attention to constitutional law since 1st yr law school, so would be interested to hear what the other legal brains here make of it.

 

[Francesca R]

Cameron has described Gove as a "bit of a Maoist" who believes in permanent revolution and creative destruction. His attitude towards experts (such as teachers in the education field) is a manifestation of that.

In 2010 Cameron was somewhat more revolutionary I suspect he gave Gove starting orders. Then big society flopped and stuff.

 

[CapelDodger]

I don't see how there can be a 2nd referendum on terms unless the EU really really want the UK to stay and will bend over backwards to keep them.

Experts (lawyers in this case) tell us the process can be stopped unilaterally by the leaving party. Of course other experts say otherwise (these are lawyers, after all).

2 years to negotiate a deal, put the deal to the public and then vote on it? And hope the public give you the result you want? I hope they've learned a lesson on that by now.

Two years for today's 16 and 17 year-olds to come of age, and for Leavers to drop of the perch. Plus a look at what the vote actually means. I'd give it a try.

 

[CapelDodger]

In 2010 Cameron was somewhat more revolutionary I suspect he gave Gove starting orders.

Gove was going to tear into any department he was given, first the civil servants (experts) and then the workers (more experts).

Then big society flopped and stuff.

"Joining the big society" instantly became a euphemism for redundancy, of course. Not a good sign.

 

[CapelDodger]

I haven't paid any attention to constitutional law since 1st yr law school, so would be interested to hear what the other legal brains here make if it.

In the final analysis, of course, the Army decides.

 

[Aepervius]

The EU's Credit rating was also just downgraded by S&P

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-30/sp-downgrades-european-union-aa-aa-full-text

EU credit rating does not matter much. The one of its composing country do matter a lot.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Experts (lawyers in this case) tell us the process can be stopped unilaterally by the leaving party. Of course other experts say otherwise (these are lawyers, after all).

Two years for today's 16 and 17 year-olds to come of age, and for Leavers to drop of the perch. Plus a look at what the vote actually means. I'd give it a try.

It wasn't so much that it can be stopped or not but whether they could actually negotiate terms, run and win a referendum before the deadline.

I think even the SNP would struggle to get their referendum agreed and complete inside 2 years (plus however long it takes the Tories to pull the trigger of course) and they don't have the hassle of having to negotiate terms first.

 

[ceptimus]

That final deal is what the second referendum would be about, the question being is it worth leaving on that basis?

I don't see the EU wanting to give us a chance to remain after the pain and costs of a two year negotiation. I think after that they'll want us gone.

This assuming that the EU hasn't changed significantly during those two years as a result of other countries leaving or other events.

 

[CapelDodger]

It wasn't so much that it can be stopped or not but whether they could actually negotiate terms, run and win a referendum before the deadline.

A referendum campaign need only take three weeks (that's the minimum for Parliamentary elections, I think). Winning is a matter of perspective, of course: anyone calling a second referendum will do so hoping that the choice would be to stay. That, after all, is its purpose.

I think even the SNP would struggle to get their referendum agreed and complete inside 2 years (plus however long it takes the Tories to pull the trigger of course) and they don't have the hassle of having to negotiate terms first.

Things can be expedited at times of crisis.

 

[CapelDodger]

I don't see the EU wanting to give us a chance to remain after the pain and costs of a two year negotiation. I think after that they'll want us gone.

If the UK doesn't trigger Article 50 or aborts the process subsequently I don't think there's much the EU can do about it.

This assuming that the EU hasn't changed significantly during those two years as a result of other countries leaving or other events.

Ah, events. They will probably overwhelm this little spat.

 

[asydhouse]

I don't see the EU wanting to give us a chance to remain after the pain and costs of a two year negotiation. I think after that they'll want us gone.

This assuming that the EU hasn't changed significantly during those two years as a result of other countries leaving or other events.

But from what I've read, it's up to the leaving country to decide whether to go through with it. The EU don't have the choice to deny a change of mind on the part of the leaver, if the leaver decides to stay afterall within the two years following the triggering of Article 50.

The EU cannot force us to leave. We can choose to drop it even after triggering Article 50.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

A referendum campaign need only take three weeks (that's the minimum for Parliamentary elections, I think). Winning is a matter of perspective, of course: anyone calling a second referendum will do so hoping that the choice would be to stay. That, after all, is its purpose.

Things can be expedited at times of crisis.

Have you ever known our politicians to do something quickly?

Does a referendum need a vote in the Commons or does the PM just call one?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The EU cannot force us to leave.

I imagine they could find a way if they REALLY wanted to. Perhaps someone needs to polonium Farage before he burns all our bridges?