Merged Now What?

[MikeG]

Junker has appointed the Frenchman Michel Barnier as the EU commission's Brexit negotiator.

It's an "up yours" gesture from Junker to appoint the most anti-British figure he could find. Luckily the EU will soon be disposing of the failure that is Junker, and I guess his negotiator will follow or be sidelined by some other appointees who actually want to negotiate for the common good.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36901875

I don't think this guy will be of any great consequence. He is the Commission's negotiator, but it won't be the Commission who do the negotiating. That will be supervised by the Council of Ministers. It's just another name to add to the seating arrangements for the next few years.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

the population of the EU is ~510m people as of Jan 1st 2016

that includes the UK, so without the UK you're looking at 445m people.

That's everyone, from newborns to OAPs. ~2/3rds of a population is between 15-65, and for the most part, people outside of this age range don't spend a lot.

So now the 'market' is 293m of post Brexit EU vs 43m UK alone.


As to why a country might prefer to do a deal with the UK as opposed to the whole EU, language, speed of getting a deal done, higher % of your target market segment in the UK, more favourable terms, long term stability etc.

It doesn't have to be just raw numbers, if it takes 10 years to negotiate an EU deal and 4 years to negotiate a UK deal for example...

You're more or less right on the number - I mistakenly used the population of Europe rather than the EU but the rest of your analysis is slightly off.

First of all you can't just dismiss a third of the market when they are all consumers of products.

But more importantly I didn't ask whether a country would WANT to do a deal, I asked why they would give the UK better terms.

Lets not also forget that there are many FTAs already in place for the EU that we will be giving up and have to renegotiate and another raft that are already close to completion or well underway. I make it more than 30 existing and another dozen or so provisional the same again or more already agreed but not implemented and another dozen or so already in negotiations.

That's a hell of a lot of work just to get back to where we started in terms of trade and that's assuming we could even get the same terms.

 

[Craig B]

Well the Norn Iron will probably be getting Irish passports anyway; maybe Scotland should start issuing their own?

I think the Foreign Office killjoys would take a dim view of that. Ireland became effectively independent in 1922, which Scotland is not yet, but nevertheless

The Irish Free State first notified the British government that it proposed to issue its own passports in 1923 ... The British Government ... instructed its consular and passport officers everywhere, that Irish Free State passports were not to be recognised if the holder was not described in the passport as a "British Subject". This led to considerable practical difficulty for Irish Free State citizens abroad with many having to obtain British passports in addition to their Irish Free State passports. The British Consular Officers would also confiscate the Irish Free State passports, a practice the Irish authorities regarded as "very humiliating". The issue continued to be a thorny one until the early 1930s.​

However I wish the Scottish Government would do something like that. It would be great fun at Dover, though I suspect our friends and "Auld Allies" in Calais would greet a Scottish passport with greater affection, if only to be irksome to their English neighbours.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

I would personally limit it to the English and Welsh. Scots and Northern Irish still very much welcome.

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You realise that not all English or Welsh voted to leave? And not all Scots or Northern Irish voted remain?

I was in favour of remain, my area of the UK voted to remain (South Oxfordshire), am I still welcome?

 

[Amazer]

You realise that not all English or Welsh voted to leave? And not all Scots or Northern Irish voted remain?

I was just having a bit of fun.... not actually serious about that proposal.

I was in favour of remain, my area of the UK voted to remain (South Oxfordshire), am I still welcome?

Very much so.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

I don't think this guy will be of any great consequence. He is the Commission's negotiator, but it won't be the Commission who do the negotiating. That will be supervised by the Council of Ministers. It's just another name to add to the seating arrangements for the next few years.

Isn't he the technocrat who will shape the issues and brief the Council? Makes him fairly influential. By the way, with caveats, imo technocracy has its virtues, one of which being that facts may be brought to bear, and another that the procedural contradictions and legal gordian knots that come from more political negotiations can be avoided.

I think he has a rep as being anti-British for the mere fact of being pro-regulation in financial markets. The truth then being, one ideology and set of interests within the UK is painting him as a bigger foe to gain support for parochial purposes.

 

[Darat]

Yes, of course - that will be part of the Brexit negotiations.

It should be up to the countries where the immigrants are living. If they want to keep them all that's fine. If they want to send home those who don't have sufficient funds to support themselves that's fine. I doubt any country would want to send home all immigrants as many of them will be working important jobs and contributing to the economy and taxes of the country where they live - but if they do want to send them home, that's fine too.

I guess those countries that are still in the EU won't be able to decide individually (as there is free movement between all those countries) so they will have to let the EU negotiate on their behalf and come up with a one-size-fits-all policy for any UK people living in EU countries.

I would hope that the EU will do the same as the UK and grant automatic right to remain for those UK people who were already living there prior to the referendum date (or other date X) - but of course that is up to the EU and will have to be negotiated.

Since the UK wont be a member of the EU the remaining EU countries can decide on whatever restrictions they like in regards to UK folks in their country, they are under no obligation to come up with an EU wide policy.

 

[MCel58]

I don't think this guy will be of any great consequence. He is the Commission's negotiator, but it won't be the Commission who do the negotiating. That will be supervised by the Council of Ministers. It's just another name to add to the seating arrangements for the next few years.

That would be very unusual and a complete change of normal protocols as the Council of Ministers do not normally take the lead in any negotiations but are only usually brought in to authorise and set the directives and then with the EU parliament ratify or veto decisions.
The commission actually carries out the actual negotiations. The negotiator has actually been appointed in line with Article 218 not by the commission but by the Council of Ministers.
These roles are established in Articles 207 and 218 of the Lisbon treaty. Certainly article 50 has to be submitted to the commission not to the Council of Ministers.

Article 207 states clearly

The Commission shall conduct these negotiations in consultation with a special committee appointed by the Council to assist the Commission in this task and within the framework of such directives as the Council may issue to it. The Commission shall report regularly to the special committee and to the European Parliament on the progress of negotiations.

Here are the bit from Article 218

3. The Commission, or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy where the agreement envisaged relates exclusively or principally to the common foreign and security policy, shall submit recommendations to the Council, which shall adopt a decision authorising the opening of negotiations and, depending on the subject of the agreement envisaged, nominating the Union negotiator or the head of the Union's negotiating team.

 

[MCel58]

Since the UK wont be a member of the EU the remaining EU countries can decide on whatever restrictions they like in regards to UK folks in their country, they are under no obligation to come up with an EU wide policy.

I agree and given the immigration policies of most EU countries say that non EU nationals can only have a work permit if no other EU national can fill the post and that a range of benefits like health care and residency etc are much more difficult as a non EU national, many of the U.K.expats are extremely worried by Brexit.
This is even more true for those who retired here because most of them have free health care under the EHIC system which of course will disappear and may leave many elderly UK expats with no other choice to return back to the UK as their health care insurance given their present situation and state of health may be far too expensive.

 

[The Don]

I agree and given the immigration policies of most EU countries say that non EU nationals can only have a work permit if no other EU national can fill the post and that a range of benefits like health care and residency etc are much more difficult as a non EU national, many of the U.K.expats are extremely worried by Brexit.
This is even more true for those who retired here because most of them have free health care under the EHIC system which of course will disappear and may leave many elderly UK expats with no other choice to return back to the UK as their health care insurance given their present situation and state of health may be far too expensive.

Not just ex-pats (funny how "they" are called immigrants or migrants but "we" are ex-pats) but also service providers. My company will likely be very badly hit (possibly put out of business) if we are out of the EEA because we rely on putting people "in post" remotely.

Instead of competing against other EU companies I will be competing against Indian companies (and having to go through all the pain of proving that there is no EU national who can perform the role - in truth they can, it's just a matter of price).

 

[Hlafordlaes]

I agree and given the immigration policies of most EU countries say that non EU nationals can only have a work permit if no other EU national can fill the post and that a range of benefits like health care and residency etc are much more difficult as a non EU national, many of the U.K.expats are extremely worried by Brexit.

A bit of a self-serving aside, as the italicized has been my case forever: even if this is a paper law and is rarely invoked, at any time a change in the level of anti-immigrant frenzy could mean someone like myself might suddenly not be able to continue raising children or make payments on a mortgage, or meet any other obligations. The EU desperately needs the equivalent of a US green card, in which permanent residency privileges are granted after some reasonable period of time, subject to reasonable restrictions. On paper, immigrants from outside the EU are never quite fully people.

 

[GlennB]

I agree and given the immigration policies of most EU countries say that non EU nationals can only have a work permit if no other EU national can fill the post and that a range of benefits like health care and residency etc are much more difficult as a non EU national, many of the U.K.expats are extremely worried by Brexit.
This is even more true for those who retired here because most of them have free health care under the EHIC system which of course will disappear and may leave many elderly UK expats with no other choice to return back to the UK as their health care insurance given their present situation and state of health may be far too expensive.

Amen, and it's quite a worry for this household. Still, May has stated that she intends to maintain the reciprocal residency deals as long as the EU returns the compliment.

(small nitpick - the EHIC system is only for emergency treatment for visitors. UK ex-pat pensioners get the same health care deal as locals through the EU's S1 system. Non-pensioners living in other EU countries basically need health insurance, though there are exceptions)

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

A bit of a self-serving aside, as the italicized has been my case forever: even if this is a paper law and is rarely invoked, at any time a change in the level of anti-immigrant frenzy could mean someone like myself might suddenly not be able to continue raising children or make payments on a mortgage, or meet any other obligations. The EU desperately needs the equivalent of a US green card, in which permanent residency privileges are granted after some reasonable period of time, subject to reasonable restrictions. On paper, immigrants from outside the EU are never quite fully people.

This would have to be from an individual country rather than the EU. The UK certainly has this, do other countries not?

ETA: They surely do. France offers permanent residency after 5 years.

Maybe I'm confused and you're talking about movements within the EU?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Still, May has stated that she intends to maintain the reciprocal residency deals as long as the EU returns the compliment.

So out means out-ish?

I'm personally all for immigration but I think May might discover that this is not what her electorate thought they were voting for.

I am slightly worried about where that goes next if Brexit doesn't do the job for them.

 

[Amazer]

This would have to be from an individual country rather than the EU. The UK certainly has this, do other countries not?

ETA: They surely do. France offers permanent residency after 5 years.

Maybe I'm confused and you're talking about movements within the EU?

The Netherlands offers the same

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[MCel58]

Not just ex-pats (funny how "they" are called immigrants or migrants but "we" are ex-pats) but also service providers. My company will likely be very badly hit (possibly put out of business) if we are out of the EEA because we rely on putting people "in post" remotely.

Instead of competing against other EU companies I will be competing against Indian companies (and having to go through all the pain of proving that there is no EU national who can perform the role - in truth they can, it's just a matter of price).

I understand that, my friends have been involved recently in trying to get work visas for very highly skilled and qualified Indian and Russian staff in Belgium and have not succeeded. This is a very difficult issue including now having to bear the full costs of various insurances that were covered under our membership of the EU.

 

[MCel58]

Amen, and it's quite a worry for this household. Still, May has stated that she intends to maintain the reciprocal residency deals as long as the EU returns the compliment.

(small nitpick - the EHIC system is only for emergency treatment for visitors. UK ex-pat pensioners get the same health care deal as locals through the EU's S1 system. Non-pensioners living in other EU countries basically need health insurance, though there are exceptions)

But my understanding is that only EU members can use the EU's S1 system but maybe I have that wrong.

 

[MCel58]

The Netherlands offers the same

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Yes but residency will now depend on issues like work permits, health insurance, showing you have enough cash to stay etc, etc. Many people without a work permit will not be able to afford such things. It depends whether we will all get the permits that we need to be able to meet the conditions of residency. The problem is that no-one knows the answer. Perhaps this will return part of the brain drain generation back to the UK.
After all many of us did what a former Tory government told us to do and got on our bikes and went to where the work was that fitted our skills.
I have many UK friends that work at the commission and EU parliament and there could be a minimum of 1000 staff there that lose their jobs particularly in the parliament and related institutions that at present are working for UK interests. I think many of them feel forgotten in this whole discussion.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

(funny how "they" are called immigrants or migrants but "we" are ex-pats)

From the point of view of the county being left there is a difference between 'outward migrants' and 'ex-pats' as the latter is a subset of the former which will also include citizens of a different country who came to Britain long term but are now either returning home or moving on to a third country. We'd similarly distinguish between incoming migrants and returning British citizens. I'd be very surprised if other countries didn't have similar linguistic distinctions. Given time the language would possibly/may develop to distinguish between those from outside the free movement zone and those here on visas and hence without an automatic right to enter or remain. My wife has worked her entire career in the relocation industry and to her they are two completely different things.

 

[GlennB]

But my understanding is that only EU members can use the EU's S1 system but maybe I have that wrong.

No, you're right in that respect. My point was that EHIC doesn't provide routine health care, just emergency treatment. Even then, if you've been present for a long time (I think it's 18 months) then a sharp hospital employee might realise that even your EHIC cover has expired.

If you needed a substantial course of therapy (say) you'd have to pay for it or return home to get it, unless you have S1 cover. (EHIC also covers Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein).