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Merged Now What?

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McHrozni said:
It is silly to expect it will receive more than it already has because it's leaving.
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Who is expecting that the UK will receive more than it already has?

That's lunacy.

I think we'll be better off in the long term out of the EU, which is mostly why I voted to Leave. I don't for a moment think we'll get a better deal from the EU because we left. It'll obviously be worse, though I suspect it will end up being broadly similar.

I think we will get a better deal with the rest of the world because we left the EU.
 
Ambrosia said:
Fine - we pay ~250m/week to the EU when you account for the rebate and the EU sends some money back to the UK in the form of grants and what have you, that we have little to no control over. I think on balance we send somewhere in the region of 140m/week in "membership fees" to the EU. i.e. if post Brexit we funded all of the things that the EU funds now we'd have ~140m/week (7ish billion a year) in savings.

The point is that we are still a fully paid up EU member state, bound by all the EU treaties we signed up to, and will remain so until we conclude the article 50 negotiations, or until 2 years elapse after we invoke article 50.

Is that accurate enough for you now?
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Yep still a member until we resign. And freedom of movement still applies. I wonder what anyone in Poland Bulgaria Romania etc who was thinking about coming to the UK will do before the gates shut?

The Leave campaigners may have finally created the flood of EU migrants they've been having wet dreams about for a decade.
 
Ambrosia said:
Fine - we pay ~250m/week to the EU when you account for the rebate and the EU sends some money back to the UK in the form of grants and what have you, that we have little to no control over. I think on balance we send somewhere in the region of 140m/week in "membership fees" to the EU. i.e. if post Brexit we funded all of the things that the EU funds now we'd have ~140m/week (7ish billion a year) in savings.
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Yes, that's my understanding of the situation.

Of course that supposes that the UK won't have to make any financial contribution to the EU retain membership of the EEA (if that's what we want)

It also supposes that there will be no additional costs to the UK which are currently covered by EU membership. That two new government departments have been created to handle the Brexit process and the UK's trade relations post-Brexit seem to indicate that there will be additional costs. Whether or not these will exceed any savings will no doubt become clear in due course.

Ambrosia said:
The point is that we are still a fully paid up EU member state, bound by all the EU treaties we signed up to, and will remain so until we conclude the article 50 negotiations, or until 2 years elapse after we invoke article 50.

Is that accurate enough for you now?
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Yes, thank you.
 
Ambrosia said:
Who is expecting that the UK will receive more than it already has?
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It was one of the cornerstones of (part of) the Leave campaign, that we would continue to enjoy the same trading relationship with the EU that we currently have without any of the obligations (financial or legal) of membership.

Ambrosia said:
That's lunacy.
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I agree but even the man in charge of Brexit negotiations, David Davis, thinks that it's possible.

Ambrosia said:
I think we'll be better off in the long term out of the EU, which is mostly why I voted to Leave. I don't for a moment think we'll get a better deal from the EU because we left. It'll obviously be worse, though I suspect it will end up being broadly similar.

I think we will get a better deal with the rest of the world because we left the EU.
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We'll never know whether or not we would have been better off - there isn't an identical in the EU British economy we can run as a control. I think the UK is being wildly optimistic if it thinks it can, in general, get better trade terms than a much larger entity with experienced and skilled negotiators can.
 
The Don said:
The U.K. is a large net contributor due to the size of our country and the strength of our economy. When net contribution per head is considered the UK is well down the list.
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Based on the 2007-13 Europa data the UK paid less in total than France, Germany or Italy.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Is there any reasoning behind that?

Why would a country offer better terms to the UK to access a market of 65m people than they would to the EU to access a market of 750m?
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the population of the EU is ~510m people as of Jan 1st 2016

that includes the UK, so without the UK you're looking at 445m people.

That's everyone, from newborns to OAPs. ~2/3rds of a population is between 15-65, and for the most part, people outside of this age range don't spend a lot.

So now the 'market' is 293m of post Brexit EU vs 43m UK alone.


As to why a country might prefer to do a deal with the UK as opposed to the whole EU, language, speed of getting a deal done, higher % of your target market segment in the UK, more favourable terms, long term stability etc.

It doesn't have to be just raw numbers, if it takes 10 years to negotiate an EU deal and 4 years to negotiate a UK deal for example...
 
Ambrosia said:
That's everyone, from newborns to OAPs. ~2/3rds of a population is between 15-65, and for the most part, people outside of this age range don't spend a lot..
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Are you sure ?

My next door neighbours are in their early 70's and in the last two years have bought two (imported) new cars, been on several foreign holidays and undertaken a comprehensive set of house improvements.

Wyld Bird Seed's drummer is 67 and last year bought a new Mercedes E350 and is currently having a conservatory built which is so big that locals joke that it, and the Great Wall of China, are the only two man made structures visible from space.

My in-laws are in their mid-70s, have just come back from a trip to India and are off to Norway in October - they also subsidise my Sister-in-law to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars annually.

Don't underestimate the power of the silver pound/dollar/Euro ;)
 
Ambrosia said:
the population of the EU is ~510m people as of Jan 1st 2016

that includes the UK, so without the UK you're looking at 445m people.

That's everyone, from newborns to OAPs. ~2/3rds of a population is between 15-65, and for the most part, people outside of this age range don't spend a lot.

So now the 'market' is 293m of post Brexit EU vs 43m UK alone.


As to why a country might prefer to do a deal with the UK as opposed to the whole EU, language, speed of getting a deal done, higher % of your target market segment in the UK, more favourable terms, long term stability etc.

It doesn't have to be just raw numbers, if it takes 10 years to negotiate an EU deal and 4 years to negotiate a UK deal for example...
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Are you serious? both the greying population and the under 16 population are major parts of the spending part of any nation. The Don has answered the question re the grey and silver population. Ask any parent or toy company or IT company about the age profile of their targeted customers. It may be the parents that actually spend but it is the under 15 year olds that create the demand.
 
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Yeah, to stop a spike in the number of EU immigrants between now and when Brexit is concluded, Prime Minister May should make a clear statement: "Anyone who can prove they were living here before date X can stay as long as they wish, but anyone who arrives/arrived here after date X will not have automatic right to remain, though they may qualify to remain if they meet whatever conditions we decide to set once Brexit is concluded."

I suggest the most obvious date for X would be the date of the referendum: 23rd June 2016 but perhaps posters would like to suggest other dates?
 
MCel58 said:
Ask any parent or toy company or IT company about the age profile of their targeted customers. It may be the parents that may but it is the under 15 year olds that create the demand.
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Oh yes.
Without the under 15s whole industries would vanish.
 
ceptimus said:
Yeah, to stop a spike in the number of EU immigrants between now and when Brexit is concluded, Prime Minister May should make a clear statement: "Anyone who can prove they were living here before date X can stay as long as they wish, but anyone who arrives/arrived here after date X will not have automatic right to remain, though they may qualify to remain if they meet whatever conditions we decide to set once Brexit is concluded."

I suggest the most obvious date for X would be the date of the referendum: 23rd June 2016 but perhaps posters would like to suggest other dates?
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And should that be reciprocated for the UK people who went to the EU?
 
MCel58 said:
And should that be reciprocated for the UK people who went to the EU?
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Yes, of course - that will be part of the Brexit negotiations.

It should be up to the countries where the immigrants are living. If they want to keep them all that's fine. If they want to send home those who don't have sufficient funds to support themselves that's fine. I doubt any country would want to send home all immigrants as many of them will be working important jobs and contributing to the economy and taxes of the country where they live - but if they do want to send them home, that's fine too.

I guess those countries that are still in the EU won't be able to decide individually (as there is free movement between all those countries) so they will have to let the EU negotiate on their behalf and come up with a one-size-fits-all policy for any UK people living in EU countries.

I would hope that the EU will do the same as the UK and grant automatic right to remain for those UK people who were already living there prior to the referendum date (or other date X) - but of course that is up to the EU and will have to be negotiated.
 
Junker has appointed the Frenchman Michel Barnier as the EU commission's Brexit negotiator.

It's an "up yours" gesture from Junker to appoint the most anti-British figure he could find. Luckily the EU will soon be disposing of the failure that is Junker, and I guess his negotiator will follow or be sidelined by some other appointees who actually want to negotiate for the common good.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36901875
 
ceptimus said:
Junker has appointed the Frenchman Michel Barnier as the EU commission's Brexit negotiator.

It's an "up yours" gesture from Junker to appoint the most anti-British figure he could find. Luckily the EU will soon be disposing of the failure that is Junker, and I guess his negotiator will follow or be sidelined by some other appointees who actually want to negotiate for the common good.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36901875
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Any evidence about disposing of Junker? Looks like yet another irrational dream and wishful thinking.

Also any evidence Barnier is anti-British? So far I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere...
European Commission appoints chief Brexit negotiator but says he won't speak to UK until Article 50 triggered

Here is article about him:
Michel Barnier: Who is the new EU Brexit negotiator labelled 'no friend of the City'?
 
Amazer said:
I would personally limit it to the English and Welsh. Scots and Northern Irish still very much welcome.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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Well the Norn Iron will probably be getting Irish passports anyway; maybe Scotland should start issuing their own?
 
ceptimus said:
Yes, of course - that will be part of the Brexit negotiations.

It should be up to the countries where the immigrants are living. If they want to keep them all that's fine. If they want to send home those who don't have sufficient funds to support themselves that's fine. I doubt any country would want to send home all immigrants as many of them will be working important jobs and contributing to the economy and taxes of the country where they live - but if they do want to send them home, that's fine too.

I guess those countries that are still in the EU won't be able to decide individually (as there is free movement between all those countries) so they will have to let the EU negotiate on their behalf and come up with a one-size-fits-all policy for any UK people living in EU countries.

I would hope that the EU will do the same as the UK and grant automatic right to remain for those UK people who were already living there prior to the referendum date (or other date X) - but of course that is up to the EU and will have to be negotiated.
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I am sure we will all be very welcome back in the UK. After all a number of us are those trade negotiators that you need so much.
 
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