Okay, here they are. (An experiment gone awry, but here it is! Seriously, it'd be easier to go argue at the Politics forum. There just aren't enough "believers" on this board to help out with these kind of threads! "Learning the hard way!"
)
Anyway, I gave it a shot. Pretty much, one per....(And, Claus, give me five minutes or so to proofread, okay? Tx. )
Posted by TLN:
But how do we know it wasn't either a lucky guess or researched?
We don’t.
Posted by ARCTIC PENGUIN
Of course you know that the shows are edited. I assume you would not try to pass off anything that occurs there as happening under controlled conditions?
You have no way of verifying that JE did not research these subjects, either before they entered the studio, or while they were in the studio with the microphones on.
I think people are on better ground arguing cold reading.
Posted by Renata
Why is there never a good hit like that on those readings?
The cigarettes in the coffin—and wrong brand--was, imo, better than either of these.
Posted by DRAGON (and FSOL)
So, Clancie, what if the lady and her daughter hadn't reacted in quite that way the the first question about the tree and it turned out that someone else had cut it down for her? I think JE would still have made it sound like a hit - not so impressive because more mundane - but still a hit. Good example of warm reading.
I’m curious why people think that the daughter's reaction meant JE was right? If the comment seemed ludicrous (which the daughter’s reaction indicated)…why pursue it? Why not say, “Is there a funny story about someone cutting down a tree?” Why emphasize (as he did the first time he said it through the end) the word YOU?
To say he
would have stretched it if it missed is pure speculation.
Posted by DENISE
I'm sure my grandmother has cut down a tree in her time, as have many other elderly women. Doing such things is usually part of life on the farm back in the day.
But is it common for JE’s New York City audiences? I’ve never heard him ask it before, of male or female.
I don't think it would be common here in LA either.
I hear many people saying its commonplace to guess that a well dressed elderly woman had chopped down a tree sometime in her life. All I can say is….as a Los Angeleno all my life, I’ve never done it and never known any woman who’s done it. (I suppose, if nothing else, that will give some insight into why this struck me as “interesting” for JE to come up with this for
her vs. someone else.)
Posted by Arctic Penguin
If you knew their name and address (i.e. they had advance tickets) you could try searching local newspapers for anything. Maybe the woman got cited for cutting a tree without a permit, or maybe it fell on the neighbor's house. You don't know, do you?
I think the daughter wouldn’t have been surprised then. I really think the “cold reading” argument is better than “hot reading” for this one, AP.
And about the grandfather’s name—JE didn’t give the name, but he mentioned it was grandfather’s (i.e. not any other family members’). Lucky guess, then? Sounds like that’s what most people here think.
Posted by STARRMAN
This is essentially what you are saying: Yes, the most likely explanation is that JE was talking to her dead grandfather and he told him to tell her that she cut a tree down by herself.
I’m saying that it’s interesting that he narrowed it
from the beginning more than many people give him credit for. He said, “YOU cut down the tree” rather than the more general (and safer) “There’s a funny story about someone cutting down a tree.”
Posted by BROWN (and MR. SKINNY gives examples to support this point later):
In my family, I can immediately name three elderly women who I know have cut down trees. All three of them are unafraid of outdoor labor, and do not consider it "man's work."… Consequently, the "cut down a tree" guess doesn't seem to me to be all that remarkable.
I can understand that, Brown and Mr. Skinny. Likewise, I’m sure you can understand why it surprised me, as I’ve
never known any woman who cut down a tree (or JE ever addressing this possibility to someone before).
And given the woman's apparent age and frailty, it seemed an odd direction to guess.
**Here’s a thought. If its so common, why doesn’t he use it more often? Why the one time he uses it, does it “fit”? (Okay, that’s rhetorical. I already know 10 of you are yelling, “EDITING”, lol)
Posted by LTC8K6
Why wouldn't the dead relative know the proper term?
If "they" can send the image of a kiddush cup, then they can send the image of the words "kiddush cup" as well.
I know I am doing a poor job of explaining why “chalice” instead of “Kiddush cup” interested me so.
It has to do with being very consistent with how JE describes the “process” as being based on imagery that is within his personal frame of reference (i.e. the Christian chalice). But I understand that others (obviously) aren’t impressed!
But I
can address the second part (this relates to JE's “process” ). JE says he hears some information (clairaudience), feels some information (clairsentience), but mostly gets what he gets from seeing various images (clairvoyance), some which become familiar, recurrent symbols to him.
Posted by IPECAC
AAARGH!! He could see the cup but he couldn't see the d*mned name engraved on the cup?!? Instead the "grandpa" had to tell him the name was on the cup. And of course the "grandpa" didn't/couldn't tell JE his own name?!?
This is a perfect example of why many of us don't believe this nonsense
Well, Ipecac, would you have believed it if he’d gotten the name? I wouldn’t have been surprised if he had, but I also wouldn’t expect that to convince you of spirit communication. Would it have?
Posted by RENATA
He did not actually guess it was Jewish, the sitters told them that. Do Catholics or any other Christians use a similar type item?
That’s what a chalice is, basically, a kiddush cup.
Posted by DALLIN
Also…interesting that he doesn't even bring up the engraving until after the sitters confirmed they owned the cup….So, he learned from the sitter that they owned a kiddush cup from the departed; I would think it a safe guess to throw out that his name was engraved on it. It sounds to me like he was playing the numbers.
I think someone already mentioned this, Dallin, but JE talked about the engraved name on it
before the sitter validated the existence of an important chalice/Kiddush cup.
Posted by TRACER
Notice that JE didn't say anything about the cup being engraved until after the Elderly woman had told him it was a Kiddush cup.
I don’t think this will change your view about this, Tracer, but just wanted to repeat that JE mentioned the engraved name
before she validated the existence of a special cup. I don’t think he gave any indication that he thought she was Jewish. (They were non-descript ethnically--white, one elderly, one middle aged--as far as I was concerned, btw.)
Posted by STARRMAN (and supported later by DINGLER 44)
Why can't this be explained as JE being the BEST cold reader out there? Michael Jordan's lifetime statistics are much better than most basketball players, but they are all STILL playing basketball.
Well, is he the
best cold reader? Or is he a
mediocre cold reader? I wish critics would make up their minds!
Personally, I have read much better examples of meaningful validations from other mediums than what JE gives. The advantage of JE is that what he does is not hidden in a small séance room or in a private reading, but is out there for people to see and evaluate.
Posted by GROUND STRENGTH
I have been doing quite a bit of cold reading lately and I always open up with a bit of psychometry (take a ring or other item) then say
"I feel that there is an accident involving water in your past'"
The sitter always fits this prediction to themselves and then later stretches it to something like, "He must be psychic otherwise, How did he know I was in a boating accident"
There’s no doubt some people can be duped. That doesn’t mean that its
necessarily false.
Why not start a thread about your cold reading techniques and experiences? I’m extremely interested in that (and curious how “chalice” will work for you).
Posted by LORD KENNETH
Oh my goodness! Asking an elderly woman if she has every cut down a tree! If she hadn't (said no), JE could have just asked if she had every had a tree cut down (didn't mean she did it herself).
Glad you joined in, Kenneth.
No, he specifically said he saw her doing it herself,
not hiring someone.
Re: Kiddush cup question. Renata already answered it.
Posted by VOIDX
I assume from this that it is being said that JE must have certain conditions in order to perform well and use his talent.
Actually, he’s said it doesn’t matter whether its radio, television, remote or in person.
Posted by PAUL ANAGNOPOLOUS
By the way, while we're figuring out the probabilities for all these things, let's not forget the probability of a good hit by coincidence. That should be easy to calculate, no?
You’re being facetious, right? Otherwise, it would certainly be interesting to know the probability of a hit by coincidence. The Sylvia Challenge purports to do that, but I don’t see any statistics to back it up.
Posted by CFLARSEN
Neil (it should have been "Neil", not "Neill", my bad) is a cold-reader who once posted a cold-reading transcript on TVTalkshows. I challenged Clancie to see if she could point out what was different from a cold-reading transcript and a JE-transcript. She could not. All her points were invalid.
Claus, you raised some other points, but unfortunately my “one response” is going to have to be taken up correcting your misrepresentation here.
You say, “I challenged Clancie to see if she could point out what was different from a cold-reading transcript and a JE-transcript. She could not”
Yet you and I both know I listed thirty
30 ! differences between that transcript and a JE reading (I’ve even added one or two since then in discussion here).
Just because
you decided (to your own satisfaction, at least
) that “all (Clancie’s) points were invalid” is
NOT the same as saying, as you do here “Clancie
couldn’t point out what was different from a cold reading transcript and JE.”
I pointed out the differences, Claus. Thirty of them.
Posted by ARCTIC PENGUIN
It may tell us something about Clancie's thought processes, but it tells us nothing about JE's 'mediumship'. It is cherry-picking. It is counting the hits and forgetting the misses. Since the conditions were uncontrolled and the results edited, they should be assigned no value whatsoever.
Whatever. (I will agree that this thread was an experiment I’m not going to do again. In a way, the reason you mention is one reason why).
Posted by ELI54
Did Grandpa's passing have anything to do with a tree falling on him?
No, it didn't.
Posted by Thaiboxerken
The only interesting hits I would find in any medium would be ones that win the JREF or CSICOP tests.
If Sylvia passed the Challenge Randi’s designed for her, people could say it was lucky guesswork. Its very poorly designed and no scientific journal would consider it worth anything as far as establishing the existence of mediumship.
And re: CSICOP, I don’t think CSICOP
does testing anymore. Which CSICOP tests are you referring to, tbk?
Posted by Instig8r
JE started out each seminar, bragging about alleged wondrous readings that he did in the past. Then, he sheepishly owned up to a few times when no spirits came through. I believe he does this to keep audience expectations down to a manageable level.
Probably so. But…why not? With 3000 people, most of them desperately hoping to hear from at least one loved one and many big fans that expect JE to produce big results for them…why
not try and lower the expectation level a bit?
When dealing with the public, it just makes sense. (Plus its true—there are great readings and poor ones.)
Posted by NEO
On the other hand, Ian's 90 seconds of aired readings were taken from 30 minutes of taped *readings*, and in that timeframe, I believe he included parts of readings from two or three different people.
Neo, is that really you?
A JE believer?
Its getting mighty lonely here, lol.
A very important fact about PrimeTime is that many of the participants have publicly posted about their experiences and were absolutely convinced that Ian was a cold reader the entire time. PT had a thirty minute follow up discussion with everyone afterwards and showed
not a single criticism! Even JE does better job of showing the people who don’t think he’s “for real” than they did. There was no balance at all, and many participants were very angry that their viewpoints weren’t expressed—in fact, that they were all made to look as if they’d been taken in.
Posted by LOKI
So, work out JE's average first - but even if he tops the averages, it doesn't prove mediumship!
Yet, Loki, isn’t this Randi’s premise in the Sylvia Challenge? That beating the expected average
will prove mediumship?
Posted by THANZ
Has JE ever claimed that being in close physical proximity to the sitter makes a reading easier - or the converse, that great physical distance makes it harder to "focus on the spiritual energies" or something like that?
It would seem to me that this would be an easy excuse for JE to explain away the poor LKL readings…. So, does anyone know if he has offered this excuse and if not, why not?
Thanz (And by the way, even though you don’t believe in any of this, you always understand my point, which I definitely appreciate.
)
Re: your question. Actually, he’s said just the opposite, that physical distance, phone connection or live, etc. makes absolutely no difference.
I don’t think anyone’s ever asked him about his feelings about the hits/misses on LKL readings specifically, though.
Posted by KELVING
(These are) perfect examples of how cold reading works.
When you do as many readings as JE does, you are going to have some so called "hits" once in a while.
If this is the best the believer crowd can do, don't expect science textbooks to be rewritten anytime soon to include John Edward's miraculous abilities.
Not the “believer crowd”, Kelvin. Just me.
And when you say its cold reading because out of the volume of guesses some will be right? Is that actually considered part of cold reading? (a question, not a challenge. I’m not sure).
That's it! For better or worse, an experiment gone awry, but there it is!
.......neo
.......neo
