Moderated Global Warming Discussion

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Perhaps things have improved since then, but my opinion at the time was that both McIntyre and the vast majority of the posters on the site had a lot of interest in confirming their conspiracy, and little interest in what was actually correct.

Thanks for sharing that, and for taking the trouble to put McIntyre straight. As you appreciate, the damage was already done, which is precisely the intention. Throw mud, move on, print a short update months later at the bottom of page 13.

His stuff is increasingly centred on himself and the hurts done to him by The Mann and his team. They're all cracking-up in the weirdsphere apart from true professionals such as Morano. Things haven't been going well for them for a while, but this year has been spectacularly bad - and it's far from over yet.
 
You mean he looks for trouble. I remember the huge, and ongoing, indignation because the source code for GISS Model E. The code was released, and everyone forgot about auditing it, except for one poor incompetent who had no idea what he was looking at. He still complained about it though. In other words, it's not the code or the data they want, they just want to find something to complain about. McInytre is now reduced to just attacking people, or going back over issues that are long gone. His endless harassment of individuals, all pretense of doing anything about the science has long gone. He just wants blood.

He wants attention. It can be a drug (so I'm told) and McIntyre is hooked. From a life of complete obscurity he suddenly gained a cult following by denying AGW. He'll never give that up willingly.
 
So what "relevant factors" are being missed?

The unknown unknowns driving the natural cycles which might be making all this stuff happen. Haven't you been following? :rolleyes:

CO2 is mostly transparent to visible light and I'm not sure what you mean by emitting heat.

Probably a confusion between IR and heat, but this is the problem when laymen try to talk about science. One really can't be sure what they mean.
 
Sounds like you don't read him. He's far more statistically fluent that Mann or Jones.

Then why do Mann and Jones end up with the correct answer while McIntyre comes up with the wrong answer?

I'm referring to McIntyre's attempt redoing the Statistics in Mann's 1997 paper. McIntyre made serious blunders and ended up with a completely wrong answer while Mann's results have been confirmed both by reviewing his original paper and more than a dozen newer studies that obtained the same results as Mann.

The lesson here is that you can't just take McIntyre's word for how "brilliant" he is at statistics. To this point he's published all of one paper on this subject and than didn't hold up to scrutiny after it was published.
 
Not a bad attempt to see things from the other side, except for the "denier".
1. I agree. If it's appropriate to question proxies for the last thousand years, it's appropriate to question proxies for 500 mya. Depends on which proxies, and how they're selected. Tree ring width responds to temperature and rainfall and fertilization. Furthermore, the microclimate in which one tree or stand of trees grew does not have to match the contemporary microclimate of a grove farther upstream. Do you dispute the broad generalization that the atmosphere of the Ordovician had more CO2 than today?
2. Dunno who implied a constant solar flux. If positive feedbacks dominated, we'd see more exaggerated cycles, or perhaps not even be here to make observations.
3. I try to avoid "alarmist" or other names for people who advance the CO2/AGW hypothesis. Someone once said "Not all religions need a god. Every religion needs a devil".

yeah you avoid names, but then you call a well established theory a hypothesis. lol nice try. but your science denial is obvious.
 
Do you dispute the broad generalization that the atmosphere of the Ordovician had more CO2 than today?

The CO2 record from the Ordovician also has a 10 million year interval step and solar output was much lower then. When you take these factors into account CO2 levels correalte very well with the conditions of the Ordovician and beyond. Arguments that Ordovician glaciation disproves the warming effect of CO2 are groundless. On the contrary, the CO2 record over the late Ordovician is entirely consistent with the notion that CO2 is a strong driver of climate.
 
Has he improved?

LOL. No.

Loved your post BTW, you have an entertaining writing style :D
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About that there is the "semi-protected indefinitely in response to an ongoing high risk of vandalism" article of Wikipedia on the Hockey stick controversy. The talk section (subject to sanctions, as the giant warning indicates) and article history (+2000 editions) are a source for social studies [I suppose an article on the scientific evidence about the existence of one or more gods would have similar developments]. The article contains references on the statistical papers, skills of their authors and committees informing about it.

Reading again on the subject, and its continuing recycling of same old, same old which characterizes climate change denialism -it's some sort of mysticism associated to what seemed to work momentarily-, it made me remember what I thought back in 2008: they are around an airport finding mistakes in the design and construction of a 747, and claiming it can't fly and it only seems to fly and it is flying until the surge of some yet-to-be-known temporarily-passivated real variables of this flying business will show all the planes falling from the skies like hail.
 
Then why do Mann and Jones end up with the correct answer while McIntyre comes up with the wrong answer?

I'm referring to McIntyre's attempt redoing the Statistics in Mann's 1997 paper. McIntyre made serious blunders and ended up with a completely wrong answer while Mann's results have been confirmed both by reviewing his original paper and more than a dozen newer studies that obtained the same results as Mann.

The lesson here is that you can't just take McIntyre's word for how "brilliant" he is at statistics. To this point he's published all of one paper on this subject and than didn't hold up to scrutiny after it was published.

But all the people who read his blog agree he is brilliant.
 
Sounds like you don't read him. He's far more statistically fluent that Mann or Jones.

You don't think McIntyre actually read the code after blubbering like a baby because he demanded it be released? :)

No, some poor sod who had no idea what he was doing muddled around with it for a while, made some complaints, had it pointed out to him he was wrong, and the interest in the code died away, not with a bang, but a whimper.
 
Some interesting climate news. While McIntyre and his admirers still cling to arguments from as long as a decade ago, science move inexorably forward:'

Jan Esper and colleagues have an article in Nature Climate Change that introduces a new reconstruction (N-Scan) of high-latitude (Fennoscandian) summer temperature changes over the past two millennia based on Maximum Latewood Density (‘MXD’). The most exciting–and in our view important–development is that they seem to have greatly ameliorated the “divergence problem” that has plagued some surface temperature reconstructions based on these types of data; given that the the revised MXD data appear to be able to track the most recent warming provides increased confidence in the estimates they provide of past temperature changes.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...e-rings-and-climate-some-recent-developments/
 
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You don't think McIntyre actually read the code after blubbering like a baby because he demanded it be released? :)

No, some poor sod who had no idea what he was doing muddled around with it for a while, made some complaints, had it pointed out to him he was wrong, and the interest in the code died away, not with a bang, but a whimper.
Link, please. To a report in neutral langtuage.
 
Link, please.

Link to what? The fact that code is available? The fact that McIntyre has done nothing with it?

To a report in neutral langtuage.

Why on earth would anyone generate a report on blog postings? McIntyre is a nobody who posts on the internet, nobody is going to waste their time evaluating what he does/doesn't write on his blog because science isn't done on blogs it's done in peer reviewed literature.

When McIntyre stops posting conspiracy theories on his blog and starts writing some peer reviewed papers maybe someone will write reports based on his work.
 
Found it, "Chiefio" blunders through the GISSTemp code, (not modelE, as I recalled). It was a lonely task, and he's lost interest two years ago. So much for getting the code and exposing to the world the fraud behind the rising temperatures.

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/gisstemp-technical-and-source-code/

McIntyre would have ignored because, for one thing, it's not written in "R". And as we all know, it's the standard programming language for the world. If McIntyre likes and uses it, then everyone else should. Such an attitude gives you a good insight into how his mind works.
 
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Link to what? The fact that code is available? The fact that McIntyre has done nothing with it?
To the source of "unique person's" description.
Mcntyre is a nobody...
Not according to his wikipedia bio. Anyway, George Boole was a "nobody" (school teacher). The Wright brothers were high school dropouts.
Darwin was a Divinity major.
...science isn't done on blogs it's done in peer reviewed literature.
Grigory Perelman published his results on the internet, not in any peer reviewed journal.
Anyway, I've been a fan of Freeman Dyson since he published Disturbing the Universe, a fan of Matt Ridley since publication of The Origins of Virtue. I'll take the word of people who are open with the data and don't suppress discussion over those who violate archiving rules and undermine discussion (e.g., sabotage of peer review). One last point: Steve McIntyre, Anthony Watts, Roy Spencer attach their names to their analysis. Who participates in this discussion on JREF?
 
Not according to his wikipedia bio. Anyway, George Boole was a "nobody" (school teacher). The Wright brothers were high school dropouts.
Darwin was a Divinity major.Grigory Perelman published his results on the internet, not in any peer reviewed journal.

And Stalin was a seminarian and he wasn't even called Stalin... AND???? Are we to worship McIntyre today because he may become a sound thinker in a distant future? What about you becoming a saint?

Grigory Perelman didn't "publish his results" on blogs. Grigory Perelman didn't autopublish.

Climateaudit.org Website Information


CONTACT INFORMATION

Owner Stephen McIntyre Email
63f92f25f6adfdf.png
@utoronto.ca
Phone Numbers +1 416 469 3034
Address 25 Playter Blvd
Toronto, ON M4K 2W1
Canada
You do pretty little word games but you are saying nothing.

<navel gazing snip>

I'll take the word of people who are open with the data and don't suppress discussion over those who violate archiving rules and undermine discussion (e.g., sabotage of peer review).

Yes, you are pro-Bambi and anti-Hunter. We got it!

One last point: Steve McIntyre, Anthony Watts, Roy Spencer attach their names to their analysis. Who participates in this discussion on JREF?

We do. Not them.
 
Not according to his wikipedia bio.
well if his Wikipedia page says he's brilliant then he must be...
:dl:


Anyway, George Boole was a "nobody" (school teacher). The Wright brothers were high school dropouts.

And then they did something.

to quote Carl Sagan "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright Brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown."


McIntyre has yet to do anything of note in the field of climate science. Until he does so he's a nobody whose opinion carries no weight whatsoever. What you are doing is pointing to McIntyre (a nobody with a blog) and saying "he believes it, so it must have merit" when in fact he has done nothing that is worth even bothering to refute. If you like his arguments bring those here in your own voice with accompanied support and we have something worth addressing, otherwise you simply asking us to "correct the internet".
 
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a fan of Matt Ridley

Why are you a 'fan' of people who so fundamentally misinterpret the whole debate?

http://www.skepticalscience.com/matt-ridley-wired-for-lukewarm-catastrophe.html

For example, Ridley pooh-poohs the adverse health effects of DDT, downplays the role of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in ozone depletion, the health risks associated with air pollution, and so on. The general theme of the article is that because these other environmental concerns did not result in catastrophic consequences, environmental concerns in general can be considered overblown alarmism.

Now, there is of course a glaring logical fallacy in this argument - we took action to address all of these prior environmental concerns. We phased out the use of DDT and CFCs, passed Clean Air Acts to reduce air pollution, etc. In fact, we recommend that anyone reading Ridley's article first put on a head vise, because he manages to undercut the premise of his own argument by making this very point:

"By the 1970s the focus of chemical concern had shifted to air pollution....driven partly by regulation and partly by innovation, both of which dramatically cut the pollution coming from car exhaust and smokestacks, ambient air quality improved dramatically in many cities in the developed world over the following few decades."​

You might wonder how Ridley can make the argument that these prior environmental concerns were overblown because they did not have catastrophic results, when he himself admits that we took steps to stem their adverse impacts. Please keep your head vise on while you try to figure out the answer to that question, and if you do figure it out, please let us know. Chris Goodall debunks many of the claims Ridley makes with regards to past environmental threats in a good post at Carbon Commentary.
 
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