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Fusion, eh?

Before tipping off Paul Allen or anyone else, Bussard's response should probably be analyzed in here some by those who understand the physics behind his claim. My high school physics term paper 30 years ago was on fusion but that's about as far as my knowledge of the subject goes. From what little I do understand, I remain highly skeptical.
 
I put the response in Microsoft Word and ran a spell check. Produced several spelling errors. I would have thought a scientist would have put a letter through a spell checker before sending it out.

Uh, maybe he was in a hurry(it's not his job to reply to people on a random internet forum) and forgot? Can't scientists forget to do something?
I forget to run some of my stuff though spell checker sometimes, and I'm quite into having words spelled right; but it seems I'm not quite as anal about it as you.
 
He sent a long reply. That takes some effort. It was not done in a hurry.
This is one red flag. There are just so many things wrong. None of them conclusive, but put together it would be foolish to be a supporter.
1. How do we know that he is who is says he is?
2. When it comes to raising money he can do anything we can do and better. We have nothing to gain to support him.
 
He sent a long reply. That takes some effort. It was not done in a hurry.
This is one red flag. There are just so many things wrong. None of them conclusive, but put together it would be foolish to be a supporter.
1. How do we know that he is who is says he is?
2. When it comes to raising money he can do anything we can do and better. We have nothing to gain to support him.

Indeed he did. If it is nothing but a scam, what reason did he have for giving the, highly detailed, reply to a forum of skeptics? Surely a scam artist would know their reply would get ripped a new one if it really wasn't legit?

We don't, right now, but if indeed we made the effort to seriously help to get him funding we'd make damn sure it really is him.

Maybe, this isn't a given.
We have nothing to gain by helping poor, starving people in other countries, yet some people do. Why?
Anyway, I'd say working fusion(asuming it panned out) would be a gain for us, even if we didn't get rich off of it. As you say, oil is running out, so, what are we going to use after it's gone?
 
My university had a tokamak too. My understanding was that the physics principles are sound, it's just been a shortage of engineering capability for the past several decades, and continues to be now. It's also my understanding that shrinking the device makes the problem harder, not easier... that larger tokamaks are fundamentally easier to deal with (ie, the engineering margins are more forgiving, in a field where you take every advantage you can get).

Since I'm kinda new here, is the general feeling of the forum that fusion, as a principle, is woowoo, or just the latest guy to run up claiming (again) to have done it with today's technology?
 
Indeed he did. If it is nothing but a scam, what reason did he have for giving the, highly detailed, reply to a forum of skeptics? Surely a scam artist would know their reply would get ripped a new one if it really wasn't legit?

He would know that not many people would know how a commercial fusion reactor would work. Sure we can say the obvious things will not work, but this is far more complex.

I doubt if he would know much about us. That takes a lot of effort and time.

All I am saying is to proceed with extreme caution.
 
My university had a tokamak too. My understanding was that the physics principles are sound, it's just been a shortage of engineering capability for the past several decades, and continues to be now. It's also my understanding that shrinking the device makes the problem harder, not easier... that larger tokamaks are fundamentally easier to deal with (ie, the engineering margins are more forgiving, in a field where you take every advantage you can get).

Since I'm kinda new here, is the general feeling of the forum that fusion, as a principle, is woowoo, or just the latest guy to run up claiming (again) to have done it with today's technology?

The problem with fusion is that everytime we think we understand it, and know how to design a reactor that exceeds breakeven, some previously unseen feature of the physics manifests itself.

We had great fusion confidence in the 60's, and built reactors, and discovered microinstabilities. We've discovered many other things since then.

I wouldn't be suirprised at all if ITER finds some new issues after it's built.

So fusion isn't woo. We know all the basic fusion reactions, their ignition temperatures, and their yields. Fusion works wonderfully in thermonuclear weapons.
 
We've slowly been overcoming the problems inherent in fusion. Japan's JT-60 has come close to the break even point and recently maintained a fusion reaction for a period of @ 28 seconds. That may not seem like much but it's a pretty significant leap and demonstrates that the principle itself is sound; it's just a matter of our technical capabilities catching up to principle.

Just remember that in the not too distant past, men flying through the air in machines or going to the moon was considered woo as well. We will get there with fusion. The problem is and always has been a lack of funding. We've been apathetic in the past because we had what seemed to be an abundance of fossil fuels that were available cheaply. There was not a lot of motivation to fund the large projects necessary to develop fusion. With ITER that's all changing...finally.
 
We've slowly been overcoming the problems inherent in fusion. Japan's JT-60 has come close to the break even point and recently maintained a fusion reaction for a period of @ 28 seconds. That may not seem like much but it's a pretty significant leap and demonstrates that the principle itself is sound; it's just a matter of our technical capabilities catching up to principle.
This reminds me creepily -- the fur on the back of my neck rose, in fact -- of the beginning of the first book in Jack Chalker's "Flux and Anchor" series. I couldn't stomach his plots long enough to get through but I do remember the brief description of the first "punches" into whatever the flux source was... and I'll bet Chalker based it on the fusion work that had been done up to that time (mid- to late 1980s?) or similar real-world physics work.
 
This reminds me creepily -- the fur on the back of my neck rose, in fact -- of the beginning of the first book in Jack Chalker's "Flux and Anchor" series. I couldn't stomach his plots long enough to get through but I do remember the brief description of the first "punches" into whatever the flux source was... and I'll bet Chalker based it on the fusion work that had been done up to that time (mid- to late 1980s?) or similar real-world physics work.

Well, once someone does it, everyone will be doing it. But before it is successful, there are lots of people who try it and give up.

The X-Prize was the same way. Now we have commericial spaceships and spaceports being built all over the place.

Of course, public enthusiasm may wane a bit after the first few flaming wrecks.
 
It has only one tiny problem, and that is that no one knows how to shield the center electrode well enough to prevent the hydrogen plasma from contacting it, and getting quenched.

Bussard claims his device uses magnetic fields to create a spherical shell of recirculating electrons, and the electrons act as a virtual electrode for the ion chamber.

i find it amusing that they claim to be able to tackle such a complex, revolutionary issue, but he gives such a loose estimate on budget...i mean, 100-200 million? indicates they have no real idea what they are up against.

He says $150M for a D-T reactor or $200M for an aneutronic p-B11 reactor. He's not being wishy washy. It depends on whether you want neutron radiation or not.

1: Apparantly not, otherwise he would say so, and probably patent the stuff.

He has patented it. I believe 4,826,646 and 5,160,695, among others.

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?patentnumber=4826646

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?patentnumber=5160695

(I'm not allowed to post links. Aren't spam protection measures ridiculous? It's extremely irritating to work around.)

Can Bussard take existing computer codes used for modeling magnetic confinement fusion, and model his proposed device on a supercomputer, and demonstrate it to work in simulation?

He says that there are too many variables to do efficient simulations on computer. They have simulations for startup, but not steady state.

1. How do we know that he is who is says he is?

We don't, although it's consistent with things he's said elsewhere. If not him, why would someone write about what he's actually doing but include misspellings?

My university had a tokamak too. My understanding was that the physics principles are sound, it's just been a shortage of engineering capability for the past several decades, and continues to be now.

Bussard says exactly the same thing.

Tokomak scientists say that IEC reactors will never work, and it's just a matter of engineering and a few billion more dollars before Tokomaks work. Bussard, who helped get Tokomaks started, says they will never work, and it's just a matter of engineering and a few million more dollars before IEC reactors work.

They both have credentials, and I don't know the advanced physics, so who should I believe?

It's also my understanding that shrinking the device makes the problem harder, not easier... that larger Tokamaks are fundamentally easier to deal with (ie, the engineering margins are more forgiving, in a field where you take every advantage you can get).
He says the same thing about IEC reactors.

He summarizes the whole mess in his lecture at Google, if you haven't seen it.

ht tp://vi deo.goo gle.c om/vide oplay?docid= 1996321846673788606

The big problem that I've heard of is Todd Rider's papers, which say that IEC fusion can never reach break-even "without circulating a prohibitive amount of power relative to the fusion power". I don't know what that means really (the electrons Bussard is circulating around through the magnetic fields?) but apparently it pounds the nails into the IEC fusion coffin. Yet Bussard claims it's still a viable technique, and I've seen a few people say that Rider's paper doesn't apply to the method he's using. I'd love to see Bussard rebut Rider's paper. I haven't seen that anywhere.

http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&lr=&cluster=7593394092257962635
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&lr=&cluster=14365216228545048361

And a glimmer of defiance:

http://www.fusor.net/board/download_forum.php?bn=fusor_general&site=fusor#N1164 224519

The X-Prize was the same way. Now we have commericial spaceships and spaceports being built all over the place.

Is that sarcastic?
 
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Well actually... :D

Seems that there are a few little "thises and thats" y'all might want to make sure you're aware of.

First, Philo T. Farnsworth invented the television camera. Yep, that's right- Farnsworth's invention was used up until CCDs came on the scene in the 1980s. So the fusor wasn't the only thing he ever invented. In fairness, elements of both Farnsworth's and Zworykin's designs were used- but you should also be aware that Farnsworth won a lawsuit against RCA, primarily based on the fact that a schoolteacher of his was able to reproduce a drawing he had made when he was in school that captured the essence of the operation of the cesium television camera tube. The royalties didn't make him rich; after all, how big a market is there for million dollar television cameras?

Second, the IEC design Bussard has developed from Farnsworth's (and, by the way, Hirsch's- and therein lies another interesting tidbit) fusor has several important improvements over the original design, the very latest of which Bussard's company (yes, there was a company, yes, they were funded by DARPA funds, yes, they were getting money from the US Navy up until 2005, and yes, an Admiral in the US Navy thought the work was important enough that he authorized enough money to keep them going until April of 2006, even though the money had run out because the US military had to pay for Iraq and Congress wasn't authorizing raiding Social Security for it any more) completed early this year. No scientific papers have been published because the terms of the government funding contract prohibited it. Thus, the designs have not undergone peer review; however, they were not Dr. Bussard's designs alone, but the designs of a group of nuclear physicists and nuclear engineers working together on a US government funded project, for a company that held the patents. So stop talking about Dr. Bussard like he's Joe Blow, or a mad scientist in a basement somewhere. That's not what's going on here. He was the principal investigator for a defense contractor. It's extremely likely now that the government has let the contract lapse that the papers will be published, and we'll have some serious meat to chew on fairly shortly published in the professional literature. Dr. Bussard apparently also owns the patents (and no, they're not applications, they're US patents, registered with the patent office, with, you know, numbers and like that). (ETA: I've just found that a prior poster has given the patent numbers. Hopefully that will help.)

Third, you should all be aware that the interstellar ramjet concept is by no means Dr. Bussard's claim to fame, particularly not among the US fusion research community. Dr. Bussard was Assistant Director (and Dr. Robert Hirsch- yes, Hirsch of the Farnsworth-Hirsch fusor- was Director) of the Controlled Thermonuclear Reaction Division of the old US Atomic Energy Commission- the predecessor of today's Department of Energy- the Secretary of the DoE is a member of the Cabinet of the President of the United States. Together, Hirsch and Bussard oversaw the birth of the US fusion research community in the 1970s. They are the ones who pushed the Tokamak, and got $18 billion from Congress for it; in essence, they are the reason ITER even exists (and for those not paying attention, ITER was finally ratified by all the signatories just last week- they'll be building it in France). Really, people, this guy AIN'T Joe Blow- he's one of the founders of fusion research. There may not be anyone alive that knows as much about fusion as Dr. Robert Bussard. Certainly there are very few if any who have done as much to advance research into it, both administratively and personally.

Fourth, several unique features of his latest design make it very much worth looking into:
1. It appears that to avoid the problem with the electrode in the middle one must construct a system that presents a "virtual anode" (Dr. Bussard's term) at the center. Apparently, the means to do this are quite simple: use electrons to surround and contain the plasma; they form the cathode. If you can't see why Dr. Bussard would call the center of this a "virtual anode," you should probably study Maxwell's equations a little while. It seems pretty obvious to me.
2. To avoid losses among the electrons, one must have an even number of faces surrounding each vertex of the magnetic coils one must use to control the electrons (yes, of COURSE you use a magnetic field to control the electrons- how do you think Farnsworth came up with the thing in the first place?). This is because magnetic poles come in pairs: north and south. If they are not matched around the vertex, then the electrons (and the plasma) can escape, and energy will be lost. If the number of faces around the vertex is odd, you can't have north-south-north-south... and so forth. They won't be matched- there will be an unmatched pole. Dr. Bussard came to this realization rather late, if I understood correctly; it sounded like perhaps not until 2002 or later. This also seems pretty obvious, and just the sort of thing a whole bunch of nuclear physicists would stare straight at and completely miss.
3. The last key to the device is that the electrons cannot come into contact with the metal of the windings; if they do, they will be conducted away and lost in eddy currents. This was what Dr. Bussard was working on when the funding ran out, and he managed to complete a prototype that proved it. This is apparently the answer to Todd Rider's objections.
4. If Dr. Bussard's calculations are correct, there are two scaling factors involved in this type of device: the power output scales as the seventh power of the size, and the power gain as the fifth power of the size. Therefore, there is a "smallest" size below which there will not be net power output.

Hans, where did you get information that he doesn't intend a small prototype? In fact, he explicitly states that he does, and that he needs about $2 million for it. It will be larger than his previous ones, so that he can test the scaling factors and confirm the minimum size of a working, net power output device. If his calculation of the scaling factors is correct, it will then require between $110 million and $200 million to build a working device that will make net power.

Reading the original article by Todd Rider makes me nearly certain that Dr. Bussard is very aware of it, and has been struggling with the last sentence of the abstract for quite some time: "In order for IEC systems to be used as fusion reactors, it will be necessary to find methods to circumvent these problems."

It looks legit to me. Not to mention the fact he appeared in front of the staff of Google (they have these "tech talks" every so often- I think maybe they're competing with Microsoft, they do that too) and gave a pretty thorough talk about it, a few weeks back. This guy is the real deal, for sure- the real question is, will his idea work? Only time will tell.
 
Aneutronic & Low Energy Nuke Reactions

I thought your readers would be interested in looking at these energy technologies:

Aneutronic Fusion: Here I am not talking about the big science ITER project taking thirty years, but the several small alternative plasma fusion efforts.

There are three companies pursuing hydrogen-boron plasma toroid fusion, Paul Koloc, Prometheus II, Eric Lerner, Focus Fusion and Clint Seward of Electron Power Systems

Vincent Page (a technology officer at GE!!) gave a presentation at the 05 6th symposium on current trends in international fusion research , which high lights the need to fully fund three different approaches to P-B11 fusion

He quotes costs and time to development of P-B11 Fusion as tens of million $, and years verses the many decades and ten Billion plus $ projected for ITER and other "Big" science efforts.



Also:
The Navy Heats up "Cold Fusion" with Use of CR-39 Detectors in LENR Experiment:

Extraordinary Evidence - "Cold Fusion"

The field of low energy nuclear reactions, historically known as cold fusion, has never had simple physical evidence of the claimed nuclear processes to physically place in the hands of doubters.

Until now.

Scientists at the U.S. Navy’s San Diego SPAWAR Systems Center have produced something unique in the 17-year history of the scientific drama historically known as cold fusion: simple, portable, highly repeatable, unambiguous, and permanent physical evidence of nuclear events using detectors that have a long track record of reliability and acceptance among nuclear physicists.

Using a unique experimental method called co-deposition, combined with the application of external electric and magnetic fields, and recording the results with standard nuclear-industry detectors, researchers have produced what may be the most convincing evidence yet in the pursuit of proof of low energy nuclear reactions.

New Energy Times, issue #19
"Extraordinary Evidence"

I would have put in links , but it won't let me
Regards,
Erich
Erich J. Knight
 
I've had a look over Prometheus, Focus Fusion, and Electron Power Systems. I consider the last two relatively promising; I'm not so sure about the Prometheus system. But I agree with the assessment that these need to be researched; all three are pretty good ideas, with more than just plausible explanations of how they should work. Mr. Seward in particular has done quite a bit of work in the lab, and has used the principles behind his idea in other contexts with some success.
 
video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docid=1996321846673788606

If anyone is interested, here's a nice 90 minute google techtalk given by Robert Bussard. From nov 9th 2006.

EDIT: Since I'm apparently not trusted enough to post links I had to put in in the title instead.
 
Bussard's first paper available online

Bussard mentions two papers in the Google talk. The first is a summary, and the second is going to be many pages and much more detailed, he claims. The first was published in October and is now available online:

"The Advent of Clean Nuclear Fusion: Super-performance Space Power and Propulsion", Robert W. Bussard, Ph.D., 57th International Astronautical Congress, October 2-6, 2006

ht tp://askmar.com/ConferenceNotes/2006-9%20IAC%20Paper.pdf

It goes into more detail than other things I've read. He seems to counter Rider's objections around pg. 13, though I'm not an expert and don't understand the objections fully. Bussard is certainly convinced this will work. It also contains some nice photos of the machines (they are actually full-resolution digital camera pics; you can copy and paste them out of the PDF to see full-size).

The only bad thing that sticks out to me is his shoddy presentation. The post on this forum has lots of spelling errors and not-quite-there grammar, and the graphs in this paper are completely illegible. They look like photocopies of photographs of photocopies. I look at them and I am forced to say "what was this person thinking??"

But I agree with Schneibster; there are a lot of arrows pointing to "legit" and only a few pointing to "crazy old man". He's not the only nuclear physicist who's been working on this for the last 10 years, and I don't think the Navy hands out millions of dollars in research money to any old kook who shows up claiming he can make a viable fusion reactor.


Edit: I can't post a link. The "You are only allowed to post URLs (e.g. *************) to websites after you have made 15 posts or more." thing is supremely, utterly retarded.

It's 2006; there are, in fact, ways to prevent spam that don't prevent well-meaning people from contributing. Who do I complain to to get this ridiculous thing turned off?


Edit: I also noticed this article which summarizes the Google lecture:

ht tp://askmar.com/ConferenceNotes/Should%20Google%20Go%20Nuclear.pdf
ht tp://askmar.com/Fusion.html
 
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Thanks omegatron. Keep posting; before long the restriction on posting links goes away. It's some relatively small number of posts.
 
You need to have 15 posts before you can post links. I cannot find a reference for you (thanks to the search facility not working properly). You can start a thread here but I must warn you the answer will be no.

The reason is to stop people posting links to spam.
 

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