Electric Vehicles

[gnome]

I like the idea of the driver owns the car, the swap stations own the battery. When one goes bad, they retire it. The costs of that spread across the price of each swap.

The idea of that appeals to me, that once the expensive battery has a problem I don't suddenly have a few thousand dollars to come up with in the short term.

On the other hand I've been hearing about batteries you can count on to last the lifetime of the car, so maybe that's obsolete.

 

[lobosrul5]

Thing about public transport is that it tends to have very varied loads over a day. So there will be plenty of opportunity to charge vehicles during the low periods.

However, I think we are here having some tunnel-vision again, in reality some future scenario could be this:

There is already a move (at least in Europe) towards cars that are not owned. You rent them when you need them. There is also the quest for fully automatic cars. Let's assume those are combined (and assume various safety challenges are solved), then a car would be something you ordered on your smartphone (or whatever communication terminal we may have in a decade or two). You will tell the app where you want to go, and an automatic car will appear at the curb. You will get in, take a nap or read a book, and leave it at the destination. You will be billed online. If you order a longer ride than the range of the usual car, you will either get a long-range version, or you will be requested to change car during the trip. If you are a larger group, you order a larger car.

Mind you, this scenario needs not be applied universally. In some areas, it may never be feasible, in others it could be implemented tomorrow (well, within a few years ).

Hans

I think, generally, thats where transportation is headed. But its going to take longer than we think. For one, I don't believe fully auto drive cars will ever work on "normal" roads. We'll need some sort of beacons in the road, and some sort of way for traffic signals and the like to talk to them, and talk to each other (ie position data). I just don't see powerful enough AI in the next century to account for things like road lines being invisible due to snow cover or construction. As long as you are staying in a fully developed "auto car network" you can order your on demand car. But if you need to go on low density dirt roads, then you'll need one with the option to drive manually.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... On the other hand I've been hearing about batteries you can count on to last the lifetime of the car, so maybe that's obsolete.

It's been pointed out to me that research work like this: https://electrek.co/2020/10/18/tesla-battery-test-results-over-2-million-miles/ suggests that it's likely to be the other way around. It's not entirely fanciful to think the batteries could outlast several cars.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Here's the thing.

No matter how long it lasts, people are still going to want new cars every once and while for new features, new style, or simple "I'm sick of my old car"-ness.

It's a nice idea that I buy a car when I'm 18 and just "Ship of Theseus" it until I'm 80, but that's not going to actually happen in the real world.

 

[ponderingturtle]

The devil, as always, is in the details.

Still, none of that seems insurmountable. It seems roughly analogous to what happens when you exchange an empty propane tank for a full one. In that case you “own” the one given to you for the time you have it, and the dealer verifies your exchange tank is still legally in limits.

It’s also been pointed out that even after a car’s battery pack drops below a certain arbitrary threshold, it could still have value as part of a “PowerWall” or other backup usage. I have no doubt a successful business model could be dreamed up once the demand is there.

Yea it is not impossible but seems to be unnecessary for personal transport. People just are not driving that many hours solid all that often with how fast they can be charged and how much capacity batteries have. It is a solution in search of a problem.

There simply isn't going to be enough people driving long distances and not able to stop for a half hour for a recharge to support the infrastructure to make battery swapping practical.

 

[xterra]

Reverting to an earlier part of this thread, can someone summarize the connection possibilities/alternatives/permutations?

In the US, fuel nozzles are standardized, as are the filling tubes in the car. This in theory prevents putting diesel fuel in a gasoline tank and vice versa. It also means that the owner of a particular brand of car is not limited to using only a station that has that brand of nozzle: I don't have to worry about whether my Chevrolet truck is not fillable at a particular station.

Is there a move to standardize connectors and receptacles, or will a vehicle owner have to carry adapters? If so, how would that work?

A related issue is whether eventually charging stations will be tied to particular payment systems, or whether one could just use a credit or debit card.

 

[crescent]

Here's the thing.

No matter how long it lasts, people are still going to want new cars every once and while for new features, new style, or simple "I'm sick of my old car"-ness.

It's a nice idea that I buy a car when I'm 18 and just "Ship of Theseus" it until I'm 80, but that's not going to actually happen in the real world.

True - but there will also always be people who can never, ever afford a new car. The people who like new cars just supply the market for used cars. Older used cars eventually get shipped out of country, some get fully destroyed in accidents. Even if we stopped all production of internal combustion-engined cars tomorrow and made up for it with production of EV's, we might still be a decade or more away from the longevity of the EVs suppressing sales of new cars. In reality we are probably decades away from that point.

You might see a new service industry springing up in the refurbishment of older EV's. New paint, new upholstery, maybe some sort of standardized way of updating the electronics.

 

[JoeMorgue]

You might see a new service industry springing up in the refurbishment of older EV's. New paint, new upholstery, maybe some sort of standardized way of updating the electronics.

Not gonna happen. Cars are high tech now. That's like suggesting buying a computer once and just keep updating the parts forever. Sure you could do that back in the 80s, 90s, maybe the early 2000s but not anymore. Eventually one key part just isn't going to be able to support another key part.

BTW, I fully predict about a 50/50 at worst odds that that same thing will happen to housing within a few decades at most.

 

[Segnosaur]

I like the idea of the driver owns the car, the swap stations own the battery. When one goes bad, they retire it. The costs of that spread across the price of each swap.

The idea of that appeals to me, that once the expensive battery has a problem I don't suddenly have a few thousand dollars to come up with in the short term.

Not necessarily a horrible idea, but there are flaws.

The fact that you have added a new "middle-man" into the maintenance of an electric vehicle can cause problems... there is an increase in overhead (after all, the swap station has to earn its profit), they would need some way to determine who the biggest "battery abusers" are (so that people who don't drive as much don't end up "subsidizing" others), and there is always a risk that your local swap station could go out of business (meaning you would lose any sort of deposit you had with them).

 

[acbytesla]

I do, however, have to have the brake fluid replaced once a year, ironically because the car seldom uses the brakes and water can build up in the system.

Brake fluid is hygroscopic and absorbs water from the air. Higher moisture content in your brake system reduces the boiling point of the fluid. This can lead to failure over time. But people neglect this more than any other fluid. I know people that have never replaced it. I'm sure you could easily go a few years as opposed to every year. But I replace mine every year because it is so easy to do.

Everyone should replace the fluids every one to two years in their vehicles. But it is an easy job to do. You can easily do it yourself with a turkey baster or a fluid extractor. I never pay to have this done. You merely pull the cap off the brake reservoir and suck out as much fluid out of the reservoir as you can and refill with the correct brake fluid for your vehicle. Don't worry that you're only replacing 80 to 90 percent. The point is to remove as much moisture from the system as you can. It's never going to be perfect except when it is brand new.

PS: NEVER EVER USE THAT Turkey Baster for food once you have used it for this.

 

[Dr. Keith]

Reverting to an earlier part of this thread, can someone summarize the connection possibilities/alternatives/permutations?

In the US, fuel nozzles are standardized, as are the filling tubes in the car. This in theory prevents putting diesel fuel in a gasoline tank and vice versa. It also means that the owner of a particular brand of car is not limited to using only a station that has that brand of nozzle: I don't have to worry about whether my Chevrolet truck is not fillable at a particular station.

Is there a move to standardize connectors and receptacles, or will a vehicle owner have to carry adapters? If so, how would that work?

A related issue is whether eventually charging stations will be tied to particular payment systems, or whether one could just use a credit or debit card.

Tesla gets bad mouthed for going their own way on charging, but it was the only way to sell the cars. There was very little infrastructure and nobody was willing to build it. Tesla stepped up and built out the infrastructure and made it free for their early vehicles. It was a necessary step to get people to invest in EVs and it worked.

Since then the rest of the industry has gone back and forth on standards. I think there is one pretty universal standard in the US and another in Europe, but I don't really know. There are now more non-Tesla chargers in the US than Tesla ones, but the real catch is that Teslas can use both, with adapters, while non-Teslas still can't use the Tesla chargers. Many think this will change over time as Tesla will have to get some return on that investment, but it can be a pretty big reason why some people buy a Tesla over competitors.

I think there will be adapters and differences for some time, but that each region will settle in on some standard for a bit. And then USB-C will come out and we will all get new adapters.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Here's the thing.

No matter how long it lasts, people are still going to want new cars every once and while for new features, new style, or simple "I'm sick of my old car"-ness.

It's a nice idea that I buy a car when I'm 18 and just "Ship of Theseus" it until I'm 80, but that's not going to actually happen in the real world.

That isn't a new issue, nor a problem. That's how the car market works now. The people who buy new cars might typically only keep them for 3 years. There are a similar number of people who buy 3 year old cars, and so on.

The worry around how electric cars will disrupt the car market is probably about what they will cost. Electric cars are, for now, significantly more expensive, and at some point they might need a part replaced which is so expensive it's an uneconomic repair.

For the used market it might feel a bit like if everyone who buys new cars suddenly decided to buy big executive cars instead; they're really expensive when new so used car buyers will probably have to buy an older one than they're used to, but their value tumbles as they get older and they approach the age when they're liable to require a repair that costs more then the car's worth.

 

[Dr. Keith]

For the used market it might feel a bit like if everyone who buys new cars suddenly decided to buy big executive cars instead; they're really expensive when new so used car buyers will probably have to buy an older one than they're used to, but their value tumbles as they get older and they approach the age when they're liable to require a repair that costs more then the car's worth.

You sound like my wife when I proposed buying a five year old BMW 7 Series* instead of a new minivan. It was wrong then and it is wrong now!!!!


* The L models had longer rear doors that made child seats a breeze.

 

[bruto]

I could see battery swapping gaining favor, but it will take a lot more infrastructure and standards that no every manufacturer would want to be bound to. Performance standards and plugs and the like are far different from being locked into a specific battery size, capacity, and compatibility. Still, if an outfit like Tesla were able to provide battery swapping at multiple locations which double as charging stations, it might be a good alternative for people who would rather pay a little extra to save a little time. Since those cars seem to be so intricately connected all the time, the problems of differing battery condition and mileage might be addressable in ways we're not currently used to.

Propane and welding tanks are a different sort of thing, because what you exchange is really only the container. If it passes a pressure test, you know it's good, and its efficiency as a container is not questionable as it ages. The decline of life in a battery is quite different.

As for new versus used cars, some of us just don't like to buy new cars, preferring to let some other sucker eat the depreciation, and some of us like to hold on to old ones for a long long time. Just last year I finally gave my 1972 Mercedes to one of my kids. My truck is a 2002, my "new" Hyundai is a 2013 bought used a few years ago, and I expect to keep it for some years more. I also have a 2006 Jeep, currently in semi-retirement awaiting some work to get it through inspection, and I was stalled in my repair work by a slipped disk and long recovery. Now it's buried under snow and waiting till spring. I certainly would be really peeved if cars, like some other appliances, were to become obsolete and lose support after only a few years.

 

[ponderingturtle]

As for new versus used cars, some of us just don't like to buy new cars, preferring to let some other sucker eat the depreciation, and some of us like to hold on to old ones for a long long time. Just last year I finally gave my 1972 Mercedes to one of my kids. My truck is a 2002, my "new" Hyundai is a 2013 bought used a few years ago, and I expect to keep it for some years more. I also have a 2006 Jeep, currently in semi-retirement awaiting some work to get it through inspection, and I was stalled in my repair work by a slipped disk and long recovery. Now it's buried under snow and waiting till spring. I certainly would be really peeved if cars, like some other appliances, were to become obsolete and lose support after only a few years.

I think legally they are not allowed to, that was an issue with the experimental electric cars put out when California had the upcoming mandate that X% of cars sold needed to be electric.

 

[acbytesla]

You sound like my wife when I proposed buying a five year old BMW 7 Series* instead of a new minivan. It was wrong then and it is wrong now!!!!


* The L models had longer rear doors that made child seats a breeze.

A 5 year old 7 series would have likely depreciated by at least 60 percent. But almost any repair on a 7 series is incredibly expensive. Almost every part is 2, 3, 5 times as expensive as a mass market minivan. But they are amazing to drive.

 

[Disbelief]

I envision battery modules that simply slide or drop in, not requiring cabling. Something like the rechargeable batteries on power tools. “Swap Stations” would probably need to verify the serviceability of batteries that are swapped.

Part of this issue, is that the battery is a pretty integral part of the entire system and the crash protection is critical. While it was an early thought, I believe that the current state of design does not make this feasible. Doesn't mean that it won't be an option down the road, especially as battery technology improves.

I am not on the electrical side of the build, but I am not sure you can do away with the cabling at this point either. I would have to ask around about that.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Part of this issue, is that the battery is a pretty integral part of the entire system and the crash protection is critical. While it was an early thought, I believe that the current state of design does not make this feasible. Doesn't mean that it won't be an option down the road, especially as battery technology improves.

Pretty sure the car would have to be designed ground-up for swappable battery modules.

What I picture is a monocoque “frame” design with a built in “tunnel” or ”tunnels”that the battery pack(s) slid into. The frame/tunnel is what would provide crash protection. Another large advantage is that as battery technology improves, keeping up with that technology would just involve upgrading battery packs. In the future that pack could even involve hybrid super-capacitors or whatever the latest technology is.

But it still may be that battery advances will render this concept moot, as I predict will happen with plug-in hybrids before long.

As to cabling, I’m sure there must be durable, high-voltage solutions, perhaps similar to the interface now with fast DC charging.

 

[Dr. Keith]

A 5 year old 7 series would have likely depreciated by at least 60 percent. But almost any repair on a 7 series is incredibly expensive. Almost every part is 2, 3, 5 times as expensive as a mass market minivan. But they are amazing to drive.

I hope you don't mind that I deleted the parts of your post I find offensively true and completely off-topic to the conversation I was having with my wife.

 

[acbytesla]

I hope you don't mind that I deleted the parts of your post I find offensively true and completely off-topic to the conversation I was having with my wife.

I'm a car buff. You're the one who brought up buying a 7 series BMW which I think is a great car. I'm not trying to offend you.

This is a common issue with luxury vehicles. Manufacturers will trade reliability for cutting edge features that sell the vehicle to the first owner who can afford the maintenance. And manufacturers often could care less about second owners. Also unlike vehicles that they manufacture a lot of, they are unable to enjoy the benefits of scale with repair parts,

This concerns me with the Teslas. What is a second and third owner's experience? One of the biggest reasons I wouldn't buy a Tesla is many of the features are not transferable to a second owner. The second owner has to purchase them again. Repairs look to be very expensive as well.