Computers in 2020

[NWO Sentryman]

what would the IT buffs here say about computers and what they would look like in 2020?

 

[JJM 777]

In 2020 governments already ran out of new ideas how to make cars and refrigerators etc. more energy-effective and ecological, so they turned to IT sector and made a new law banning computer operating systems that consume unreasonably much CPU power or memory, compared to the tasks needed by the computer user.

This new law made Windows XP, Vista and later Microsoft operating systems illegal. Now computers are running again with featherweight programming techniques, and old hardware from 1990's is again enough to run an operating system that meets all practical needs of a typical home user, only excluding the gamers.

 

[quadraginta]

In 2020 governments already ran out of new ideas how to make cars and refrigerators etc. more energy-effective and ecological, so they turned to IT sector and made a new law banning computer operating systems that consume unreasonably much CPU power or memory, compared to the tasks needed by the computer user.

This new law made Windows XP, Vista and later Microsoft operating systems illegal. Now computers are running again with featherweight programming techniques, and old hardware from 1990's is again enough to run an operating system that meets all practical needs of a typical home user, only excluding the gamers.

Sounds reasonable. The OS, app, and data should all fit on the same 5 1/4" floppy.

Who could possibly need to address more than 1 MB of memory space?

 

[Eddie Dane]

Most people seem to have a huge overkill of processing power at their disposal.

And their getting clued into this too.
See the current success of netbooks.

 

[jasonpatterson]

They'll keep upgrading things with computers that don't particularly need them and attempt to make you think that having them is a good thing. To make you continue buying upgrades, they'll continue producing more and more bloated products that don't use them.
My prediction:
"Wow, your phone only has an 8 GHz processor with 4GB of RAM, how do you get anything done?"

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

In 2020 governments already ran out of new ideas how to make cars and refrigerators etc. more energy-effective and ecological, so they turned to IT sector and made a new law banning computer operating systems that consume unreasonably much CPU power or memory, compared to the tasks needed by the computer user.

This new law made Windows XP, Vista and later Microsoft operating systems illegal. Now computers are running again with featherweight programming techniques, and old hardware from 1990's is again enough to run an operating system that meets all practical needs of a typical home user, only excluding the gamers.

They'll keep upgrading things with computers that don't particularly need them and attempt to make you think that having them is a good thing. To make you continue buying upgrades, they'll continue producing more and more bloated products that don't use them.
My prediction:
"Wow, your phone only has an 8 GHz processor with 4GB of RAM, how do you get anything done?"

Given how tough it is to pass any kind of health insurance reform due to cries of "socialism!", I think Jason's scenario is MUCH more likely than JJM's.

I can't imagine the computer giants calmly acquiescing to the laws JJM suggests. There's money to be made!

ETA: I remember one of the first TV ads I saw that was making the case for how important it is to have a camera built in to your cell phone. A guy is in a 7-11 when in walks Siegried and Roy and a tiger. He says, "Oh, they'll never believe this!" Then snaps a photo to send to his friends.

Yup--if I had a dollar for every time that's happened to me! Meanwhile, nowadays many people can't imagine not having a camera on their cell phones.

 

[FreshHat]

"I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them."

Professor John Frink,
Springfield Heights Institute Of Technology,
c. 1970

 

[RussDill]

Computers will be less noticeable, but more ubiquitous. Augmented reality, improved computer/human interaction, etc. But really, 2020 is not that far away. Is there really that much of a difference between 2000 and 2010 computer wise?

Also, please, keep me out of any country that feels that it is right to take that amount of control of people's lives. Do we need to amend the constitution here is the US to cover computing cycles?

 

[Mitchell314]

The processor throughput and clock frequency will increase; thus allowing computers to crash faster.

 

[shadron]

In 2020 governments already ran out of new ideas how to make cars and refrigerators etc. more energy-effective and ecological, so they turned to IT sector and made a new law banning computer operating systems that consume unreasonably much CPU power or memory, compared to the tasks needed by the computer user.

This new law made Windows XP, Vista and later Microsoft operating systems illegal. Now computers are running again with featherweight programming techniques, and old hardware from 1990's is again enough to run an operating system that meets all practical needs of a typical home user, only excluding the gamers.

Uh-huh, and cranks on your car and convenient doors on the side of the house where delivery men can deliver milk and ice right into your icebox.

 

[shadron]

Sounds reasonable. The OS, app, and data should all fit on the same 5 1/4" floppy.

Who could possibly need to address more than 1 MB of memory space?

Yeah, all you need then is a drive to read the 5.25" floppy.

The Viking Mission to Mars got there on a computer that had 36 kbytes of plated wire memory, an analog tape memory drive, and no floating point hardware. There was an integer divide instruction, but it was used only in the wait loop, to use up time with minimal power use. That computer managed the entire orbiter separation, deorbit and landing sequence and the first fifteen minutes of science on the surface without human intervention.

 

[theprestige]

Yeah, all you need then is a drive to read the 5.25" floppy.

The Viking Mission to Mars got there on a computer that had 36 kbytes of plated wire memory, an analog tape memory drive, and no floating point hardware. There was an integer divide instruction, but it was used only in the wait loop, to use up time with minimal power use. That computer managed the entire orbiter separation, deorbit and landing sequence and the first fifteen minutes of science on the surface without human intervention.

That's because all the heavy computing was done by massive mainframes back on Earth, and only the solutions to all those hairy math problems were transmitted to Viking. The Viking computer was more like a simple device driver than anything else.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Computers will be less noticeable, but more ubiquitous. Augmented reality, improved computer/human interaction, etc. But really, 2020 is not that far away. Is there really that much of a difference between 2000 and 2010 computer wise?

The words 'Nano technology' and 'breakthroug' just ticked into my mind. Could someone more knowledgeable than me elaborate here?

 

[Gagglegnash]

Hi

I'm picturing cellular computing.

We'd have out portable and desktop computers, tailored to our needs to keep costs and energy expenses lower (you need a license to run the hotter video games because of energy constrains, and if you game, you can't take as many baths and showers as other people... which already doesn't seem to be much of a problem in the gaming community).

In homes, there's a Home Cycle Server (about what I have on my desk right now - four dual-core CPUs with 16 GB of RAM with a 160GB private local hard drive backed up by a 1TB NAS drive) to which the entire household's more difficult tasks are referred.
(NOTE: Apply ridiculous 11-year size inflation to hard drive specs for proper scale.)

Nation-wide service providers (not quite like ISPs - more like cellphone providers) would sell subscriptions to more powerful cycle servers. These would provide their service through the nation-wide WiFi that we'll need, and most of which we'd already have if governments would just recognize that WiFi, now, is just as important as telephone was when they started concentrating on getting 'phone capabilities extend nation-wide.

Any tasks that need even more power are referred up to a few large regional cycle servers on a cost-per-cycle basis. There's yet another tier of usage, probably run by the national government, where a very few real, honest to goodness supercomputers share cycles downwards while they do very high level research for outfits like the National Weather Service, the sundry Big National Research Labs, and Bill Gates balancing his checkbook.

Running in parallel would be a mess of special-interest Ad Hoc providers who would carry prepackaged solutions, as BBSes, chat boards, and web page providers do now - only with actual software and calculating power instead of just data. A few examples would be a CAD/CAM server for makers of theatrical costumes, or prototyping servers for neural net hobbyists, or Geographical Information Services (GIS) servers for amateur mapmakers and geocaching clubs and enthusiasts.

This is possible because we have most of the equipment available, if not quite in place, already. Cellular WiFi for communications, larger and more powerful computers already selling CPU time to whoever can afford it, and a common cross-platform high-speed language: Java.

Using this method of distribution, my computer, little more than a voice-command dumb terminal which could be implanted under my thumbnail, can do anything I want it to. While it's true that the very complicated stuff takes a bit longer, I can do it! Like the great Krell Machine in, "Forbidden Planet," I just keep invoking more and more powerful resources to get my task done.

(This isn't all mine: I added some bells, whistles, and optimization, but the basic idea is from a friend and teacher's Master's thesis. Hiyas, Bruce!)

 

[uruk]

Personal computers will become a device that will be about the size of a cellphone that you will carry around you and your interface will be a headmount display that will look like a pair of sunglasses.
You will be connected to the internet 24/7 unless Obama decides to turn off the internet.

And cats and dogs will cohabitate together in unholy unions.

 

[uruk]

The words 'Nano technology' and 'breakthroug' just ticked into my mind. Could someone more knowledgeable than me elaborate here?

I'd say in about one to two hundred years your computer will be integrated into your brain via nano technology. The manga "Ghost in the shell" has an explination.....some what.

 

[Gagglegnash]

Hi

I'd say in about one to two hundred years your computer will be integrated into your brain via nano technology. The manga "Ghost in the shell" has an explination.....some what.

There's already a guy... in Japan, I think... who's experimenting with running bundles of micowires through the arteries and individual microwires through the capillaries to individual brain cells, so... maybe a scale not measurable in hundreds-of-years without applying some odd little fraction.

 

[quadraginta]

Hi




There's already a guy... in Japan, I think... who's experimenting with running bundles of micowires through the arteries and individual microwires through the capillaries to individual brain cells, so... maybe a scale not measurable in hundreds-of-years without applying some odd little fraction.

IBM using DNA, nanotech to build next-generation chips

"We have met the future, and it is here." (apologies to Walt Kelly)

 

[Michael Mozina]

In 2020 governments already ran out of new ideas how to make cars and refrigerators etc. more energy-effective and ecological, so they turned to IT sector and made a new law banning computer operating systems that consume unreasonably much CPU power or memory, compared to the tasks needed by the computer user.

This new law made Windows XP, Vista and later Microsoft operating systems illegal. Now computers are running again with featherweight programming techniques, and old hardware from 1990's is again enough to run an operating system that meets all practical needs of a typical home user, only excluding the gamers.

I'll guess just the opposite. I'll guess the average computer uses 10 times the resources of today's computer in terms of ram, hard drive space, etc, and still takes forever to perform a reboot. The average OS will probably be 10 times more bloated that XP, Vista and Windows 7. I also suspect that Linux (from Google) will be just as popular as Windows.

 

[shadron]

That's because all the heavy computing was done by massive mainframes back on Earth, and only the solutions to all those hairy math problems were transmitted to Viking. The Viking computer was more like a simple device driver than anything else.

Actually it was mainly a sequencer and loop controller, and while it's target was preplanned, it had to react in real time to the inertial units to keep the aeroshell attitude profile and keep track of altitude and location profile matching, and it had to react to the IRUs and the landing radars to throttle the rockets for landing; none of that could be preplanned.