China

[theprestige]

India's a lot more open about what goes on within its borders than China is. Only an utter moron would believe for a second that the data being provided by the Chinese government is a rational basis for comparison with other countries.

 

[The Atheist]

Only an utter moron would believe for a second that the data being provided by the Chinese government is a rational basis for comparison with other countries.

Correct. That's why I used independent data.

 

[The Atheist]

Maybe the US trade deficit with China isn't really $300M a year - I mean, what would the office of the President of USA know?

Maybe all those trillions of dollars of goods China imports are fudged by the countries that export to them?

Maybe the idea that China and India exported exactly the same amount of goods in 1961, but China now exports five times more than India is made up by the CCP?

Utter morons all round, I guess.

 

[lomiller]

China has undoubtedly been successful over the last 30 years, and this has allowed it to improve the lives of it's citizens on a massive scale. People haven't resisted the lack of political freedom because for the most part their interests were still being served. I think this is coming to an end though and it doesn't have much to do with Covid policy.

China's success is much like US success in the 50's, but if China wants to take the next step and improve it's citizens lives again they need to pivot their economy in much the same way the US has since it's golden age of industrial production. Labor intensive production line work is, for the most part, always going to be low pay low productivity and that puts an upper limit on the quality of life those types of jobs can offer. To move beyond that level you need to start exporting the more manual less valuable manufacturing jobs to lower wage economies abroad. Then you can focus those resources on building a service economy and promoting your own consumer economy.

The US resisted and lamented this change while it was happening and some idiots still want to go back, but it didn't have a government form that could simply legislate it away. China is so intent on replicating what has worked for the last 30 years that it's refusing to move forward.

This is starting to prevent it from improving the lives of it's middle class, which has grown very large. There are still some people being lifted from poverty but they are now outnumbered by the stalled middle class. If recent reports that China has overestimated it's population by up to 200 million people, the stalled middle class now outnumbers the very poor by almost 3:1.

All this suggests that the number of people willing to tolerate lack of freedom in exchange for constant improvement in their day to day lives is rapidly changing. On the other side of the ledger the government has more and more to lose if it suppresses dissent to harshly. Cracking down too harshly would harm the economy the government has become dependent on (something their Covid policy does show us) reducing the governments power and increasing the agitation in the population.


All in all I think China is rapidly approaching an inflection point where something has to change. This could mean transforming it's economy and political system to something more like Japan or South Korea Or, it will start to see the gains it made start to unwind and possibly even enter a death spiral where economic collapse causes unrest and harsh crackdowns cause further collapse in a viscous cycle. I have no guess as to which one happens.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

the Protests are, for many Chinese, the first time that they will feel the physical force of the State Security Apparatus.
Many will be cowered into submission.
But everyone will grow more resentful.

 

[The Atheist]

More restrictions eased, this time in Shanghai.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/in...eases-covid-curbs-chinas-policy-shift-expands

Looks like Xi has quietly admitted it's got to end. He won't admit a mistake, but the zero-covid policy will quietly fade away.

 

[Lplus]

More restrictions eased, this time in Shanghai.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/in...eases-covid-curbs-chinas-policy-shift-expands

Looks like Xi has quietly admitted it's got to end. He won't admit a mistake, but the zero-covid policy will quietly fade away.

Yesterday's Economist reckons that relaxing restrictions will lead to a massive wave of infections and overwhelmed ICUs and deaths, unless China can manage to get the great majority of it's old fully vaccinated and massively increase the number of ICUs and antivirals in a vey short time.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

More restrictions eased, this time in Shanghai.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/in...eases-covid-curbs-chinas-policy-shift-expands

And the reports from the ground are that what is being said is not what is happening, Shanghai is "said" to be easing up, but in fact more sub-regions are going into lockdown.

More restrictions eased, this time in Shanghai.
Looks like Xi has quietly admitted it's got to end. He won't admit a mistake, but the zero-covid policy will quietly fade away.

Unfortunately it cant just fade away, they don't have enough in place to do so. Their elderly population is still not vaccinated enough, their vaccines are 50% effective (if that) against Omicron, and their population has little built up immunity as it has been closed for so long. They refuse to license more effective rna vaccines like the Omicron specific Pfizer because its western and hence loss of face.

So, relaxing restrictions will lead to huge numbers of deaths and infections. Less than the rest of the world, as they have waited until Omicron, but probably hundreds of thousands.
So they can try to cover it up, as they usually do. But it will not be easy.

All their 3 years of restrictions have done is push everything 3 years down the road, they still have to go through what the rest of the world has gone through.

Their best bet is to crackdown as much as possible, try to balance protests with lockdowns, whilst having a big push for vaccination, but unless they use RNA, or make vaccines mandatory (which they have been strangely reluctant to do) its not going to work.
This will play out for a long time.

 

[shemp]

I'd like to see this eventually lead to the collapse of the Chinese government, but that won't happen. If the **** hits the fan, Xi won't hesitate to kill and imprison thousands or even millions (hey, what's a million people out of 1.4 billion? a drop in the bucket), and if that doesn't work, he'll be purged or have an "accidental" death, and the new regime will blame everything on him personally.

 

[The Atheist]

Yesterday's Economist reckons that relaxing restrictions will lead to a massive wave of infections and overwhelmed ICUs and deaths, unless China can manage to get the great majority of it's old fully vaccinated and massively increase the number of ICUs and antivirals in a vey short time.

Not buying it.

The Scrabble variants of omicron that form the vast majority of cases is ridiculously mild compared to delta and while there would be plenty of infections, I'd lay heavy odds on the death toll being very low.

And the reports from the ground are that what is being said is not what is happening, Shanghai is "said" to be easing up, but in fact more sub-regions are going into lockdown.

Thanks - nice to have someone on the ground!

Their best bet is to crackdown as much as possible, try to balance protests with lockdowns, whilst having a big push for vaccination, but unless they use RNA, or make vaccines mandatory (which they have been strangely reluctant to do) its not going to work.
This will play out for a long time.

If it does they'll destroy their economy, so the balancing act will be interesting.

 

[Wildy]

The BBC is reporting that people are using Jiang Zemin's death as a way to criticise Xi.

 

[Roboramma]

Thanks - nice to have someone on the ground!

We got a report yesterday that certain places that required getting covid tests within 48 hours won't require it anymore (public parks, subways, etc.) but a lot of places still do (restaurants for instance). We've been doing daily tests at my building lately (none today, though), and a friend of my had her building go into lockdown today, so it's definitely not over, but word is that things are supposed to be slowly easing off.
The government claims that everything will be opening up in March and the plan is to get ready for that in the meantime. Right now there's a strong push to get everyone over 80 vaccinated. We'll see, I guess.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

We got a report yesterday that certain places that required getting covid tests within 48 hours won't require it anymore (public parks, subways, etc.) but a lot of places still do (restaurants for instance). We've been doing daily tests at my building lately (none today, though), and a friend of my had her building go into lockdown today, so it's definitely not over, but word is that things are supposed to be slowly easing off.
The government claims that everything will be opening up in March and the plan is to get ready for that in the meantime. Right now there's a strong push to get everyone over 80 vaccinated. We'll see, I guess.

This is definitely the right approach. Push push push for the elderly to get properly vaccinated.

Unfortunately there are still going to be a lot of deaths, purely due to the 1.4 billion population. There are a lot of over 80s with co-morbidities there.

 

[The Atheist]

Sound-looking analysis by the Beeb on what's happening: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63857194

 

[Frank Newgent]

My wife communicates sometimes with a woman in Guangzhou who we have done business with. She had left Guangzhou a while back to be with her mother in hometown then could not leave because of road lockdown.

Now over, she is back in Guangzhou (Liwan district) and apparently moving about freely.

 

[arthwollipot]

The Pentagon's report on the Chinese military notes an expanding nuclear arsenal – and a sophisticated integration strategy

American scholar Tai Ming Cheung, a long-time observer of Chinese military developments, has described how "China's leaders see science, technology and innovation as essential ingredients in the pursuit of power, prosperity and prestige". This is especially the case, he said, in the military realm.

Because of advances in Chinese military capability, in 2000 the United States military was tasked in the National Defense Authorization Act to produce an annual report on "the current and future military strategy of the People's Republic of China". With evidence provided from government and open sources, over the past 22 years these have become one of the most important assessments of Chinese military developments.

Last week, the 2022 version of the report was released. Where it was covered in news media, the headlines were about the assessment that China intends to build its nuclear missile arsenal to 1,500 warheads by 2035, and the continued growth of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

 

[theprestige]

I am not at all surprised that the Pentagon has discovered that just as one of its two "near peer" adversaries is on the wane, the other is waxing prodigiously. One hopes that Congress will be able to allocate sufficient funds for the Pentagon's own commensurate growth in power and capability. And that all their partners in the military-industrial complex will get their fair share of the taxpayer's large but necessary sacrifice.

 

[The Atheist]

I'd be interested in an update on how the silo fields are progressing.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-09/news/new-chinese-missile-silo-fields-discovered

I had a discussion the other day and a guy asked me how I thought the China/US would pan out.

My pick is around 2045 China will tell America it's taking back Taiwan and that they have 5000 nukes aimed at American targets if America tries to intervene.

At which stage America, faced with the choice of self-immolating over a small country 8000 km away, will back down.

 

[arthwollipot]

My pick is around 2045 China will tell America it's taking back Taiwan and that they have 5000 nukes aimed at American targets if America tries to intervene.

At which stage America, faced with the choice of self-immolating over a small country 8000 km away, will back down.

That about agrees with Kevin Rudd's timetable.

 

[Frank Newgent]

I'd be interested in an update on how the silo fields are progressing.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-09/news/new-chinese-missile-silo-fields-discovered

I had a discussion the other day and a guy asked me how I thought the China/US would pan out.

My pick is around 2045 China will tell America it's taking back Taiwan and that they have 5000 nukes aimed at American targets if America tries to intervene.

At which stage America, faced with the choice of self-immolating over a small country 8000 km away, will back down.

Come that day do you think you will prefer one side over the other?