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China

The Great Zaganza said:
I am very happy that China a trailblazer in renewable energy installation - it's the biggest polluter, but also conscious of the fact.

But its past policies have burdened it with massive pollution, a demographic time bomb and a messed up labor, banking and real estate market. And the handling of Covid suggests that Xi does not have the Mandate of Heaven.

These are not problems that can be solved only top-down, but that's the only way The Party will allow problems to be handled.
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Profound. Just profound.
 
Ziggurat said:
I don't think that's correct.

Educating a lot of students abroad means you don't need to invest as much in educational infrastructure. But it also means that the money you're paying for tuition for those students doesn't circulate back into your own economy. Plus, one of the reasons that US universities are so keen to accept Chinese students is that they often pay higher tuition rates than US students. So Chinese students are in effect subsidizing education for US students. Add in the purchasing power parity advantage to domestic pay rates for professors, and it becomes even worse.

In purely economic terms, educating Chinese students abroad is more expensive than educating them domestically. The advantage of doing so is that you can ramp up education rates much faster than you can ramp up domestic education capacity. Considering how devastated the intellectual class was from the cultural revolution, even decades later that capacity constraint is still no small matter.
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That's a good point actually. Fair call.
 
Ziggurat said:
I don't think that's correct.

Educating a lot of students abroad means you don't need to invest as much in educational infrastructure. But it also means that the money you're paying for tuition for those students doesn't circulate back into your own economy. Plus, one of the reasons that US universities are so keen to accept Chinese students is that they often pay higher tuition rates than US students. So Chinese students are in effect subsidizing education for US students. Add in the purchasing power parity advantage to domestic pay rates for professors, and it becomes even worse.
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Small note to add some context here. Some years back I was dating a local professor who was from China. She and the guy that is now here ex-husband came over in the first wave of grad students. The govrenment paid for their education and they were supposed to go home after completing their studies. If they did not come back they were told they would have to pay back the cost.

They decided to stay. They contacted the govrenment to figure out how much they owed. After a long delay they were told that the govrenment could not figure out where all the money had come from in the first place and they would not be on the hook for the cost since the govrenment could not come up with any numbers.
 
Orphia Nay said:
Protests have broken out in China against Xi Jinping and the CCP's strict covid policy.

"China's biggest protests since 1989 signal the end of Xi Jinping's hopes to beat the virus"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11...e-1989-signal-the-end-of-xi-jinping/101704556
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I made the comment in the Shanghai lockdown thread that Xi is now utterly hoisted on his own petard with nowhere to go.

The protests will only keep ramping up, and the very last reason he will have to ease off zero-covid is pressure from the plebs, because that would be the ultimate loss of face for him, and probably his political death at the very least.

Could not happen to a nicer bloke.
 
This is huge and amazing.

Videos have even shown agitators being arrested by police, and then the crowds moving in to take him back from the police and de-arrest him. Absolutely unprecedented rebellious behaviour.

Bricks and metal pipes being thrown at riot police, very reminiscent of Hong Kong 2019.
Amazing to see.

Calling Xi a traitor to his country, and to step down, and for the CCP to step down?!

This is a major change in behaviour.
 
GraculusTheGreenBird said:
This is a major change in behaviour.
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Yes, it is. The problem is that the protests might not work. The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests were a major change in behavior, but the CCP brutally crushed it, killing hundreds and possibly even thousands. The protests failed.

So I'm pessimistic about what's going to happen this time. The CCP is certainly willing to kill plenty of its own citizens in order to maintain power and control. The open question is, will they be able to, will the police/military carry out a crackdown, and will a crackdown work or spark a civil war/revolution? I don't know anything for certain, but sadly, I think a brutal crackdown probably will work to suppress these protests. I dearly hope I'm wrong, but hope isn't enough.
 
Ziggurat said:
Yes, it is. The problem is that the protests might not work. The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests were a major change in behavior, but the CCP brutally crushed it, killing hundreds and possibly even thousands. The protests failed.

So I'm pessimistic about what's going to happen this time. The CCP is certainly willing to kill plenty of its own citizens in order to maintain power and control. The open question is, will they be able to, will the police/military carry out a crackdown, and will a crackdown work or spark a civil war/revolution? I don't know anything for certain, but sadly, I think a brutal crackdown probably will work to suppress these protests. I dearly hope I'm wrong, but hope isn't enough.
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Oh absolutely. Odds on its not going to overthrow the CCP, but it is the first time since 1989 that this kind of thing has happened. Its definitely a chink in the armour, particulary Xi himself, who has made a point of so closely tying himself to the zero covid policy.

Right now he has no good options, the crack down risks further unrest.

This isnt 1989, before cell phones were omni present. Whilst the government can control individuals and media to an unimaginable degree, it is not omnipotent, and videos of those crackdowns will get out, and be shared. That sows the seeds for later problems now protesters have a taste for it

On the other hand, if he backs down with the policy, that shows weakness.

Not too dissimilar to Putin, through ignorance and insistence on a ideological position, they have got themselves into a situation that is increasingly hard to get out of.

What is also interesting is some of the interactions with the police, when the protesters have got them to straight up admit they share the same frustrations over the bad policies, but its their job to enforce them.

My guess, like yours, is a crackdown. Its his go to solution.

However, the eyes of the world are on them to an unprecedented degree. Beating up a BBC reporter, then claiming he was arrested to stop him from catching covid from the protesters is also not a good way to keep it out of international headlines...
 
Darat said:
No chance of anything like an uprising.
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I would have said a year ago there was no chance of any type of protest.

I would have said there was no chance of something like banner man before the National congress, and zero chance of protesters fighting police just like in HK, and absolutely no chance ever of protesters openly calling Xi a traitor and for the CCP to step down.

Yet here we are.

Not disagreeing with you necessarily, but we do live in interesting times. e.g. Iran protests, Ukraine war.

Nothing would really surprise me this year. Alien invasion, maybe.
 
arthwollipot said:
From this side of the planet it looks like a pretty successful nation.
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If you like totaltarian governmen and a lack of indidivual rights and freedom.
I am so tired of how some on the left sitll try to whitewash the Xi regme and the CCP.
 
Darat said:
No chance of anything like an uprising.
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I'm wondering how many uprisings in China were expected. Every dynasty that fell, did they see it coming? The Taiping Rebellion? The revolution that tossed out the emperors, and the subsequent civil war that brought these very CCP to power? It's easy to look back and say they should have known what was about to happen, but I suspect that most if not all of the time these events came as surprises to those in the moment.
 
dudalb said:
If you like totaltarian governmen and a lack of indidivual rights and freedom.
I am so tired of how some on the left sitll try to whitewash the Xi regme and the CCP.
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Comments like that show a complete inability to read.

Saying a country/regime is successful has absolutely nothing to with liking it, and even less to do with whitewashing it.

China is successful, and you don't think that's true, have a look at the current US/China investment balance, where China owns a trillion dollars of US bonds.

Saudi Arabia is also very successful economically, and despite their regime being every bit as despicable as China, US remains besties with them.
 
The Atheist said:
Comments like that show a complete inability to read.

Saying a country/regime is successful has absolutely nothing to with liking it, and even less to do with whitewashing it.

China is successful, and you don't think that's true, have a look at the current US/China investment balance, where China owns a trillion dollars of US bonds.

Saudi Arabia is also very successful economically, and despite their regime being every bit as despicable as China, US remains besties with them.
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To know what people mean when they talk about "success" you have to find out what they deem to be success, and their criteria for achieving it. I'd have said a successful nation is one where most of its population are mostly content, regardless of any trade figures or treasury balances.

As for China owning a trillion dollars of US bonds that just means they invested. They gave that trillion dollars to us, and are hoping very much we'll give it back someday with extra. I'm not certain I'd use "loaned a lot of money to a rival" as a criterion for success.
 
There's a certain irony in the fact that China has spent a ton of money in recent years on social control mechanisms, as opposed to, say, it's health sector, and now they're faced with the tail-end of a pandemic that is threatening to overrun the health sector, they're having to rely on those social control mechanisms to maintain power.
 
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