Cont: Brexit: Now What? The Perfect 10.

[Ulf Nereng]

Perhaps one day the citizens of Boston, Lincolnshire will rise up, shouting "No Chlorine Without Representation!", while throwing poultry in the ocean. It will be known as the Boston Chicken Party.

 

[Trebuchet]

...without citizenship, the right to vote or congressional representation.

Nitpick: Puerto Ricans are full US citizens but not represented in Congress because it is not a state. They are free to move to a state any time they like and then can vote there. Same applies to Guam, IIRC.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The message today from our great Fuhrer? NOT about BLM, not a jot about the riots, the deaths, the care homes, Cummings, the ongoing PPE crisis, the fact he he is still running towards a No Deal cliff edge?
No, his message to the Nation today is Shop With Confidence.
It's our duty to go out and shop for Britain.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I don't think that there'd be any desire for a 51st state - too many voters used to "socialised" medicine - much better just to have a tame client state willing to take substandard goods.....

I remember a Lenny Henry routine from the 80s or 90s where he said that the UK sees the US as kind of an ally, and the US sees the UK as kind of a warehouse.

The more things change, eh?

 

[The Don]

Nitpick: Puerto Ricans are full US citizens but not represented in Congress because it is not a state. They are free to move to a state any time they like and then can vote there. Same applies to Guam, IIRC.

Thought they had a non-voting representative

 

[catsmate]

Thought they had a non-voting representative

No, that's Washingtonians, the DC sort.

 

[McHrozni]

The UK government has already clearly signalled that the UK is now perfectly happy to capitulate on food standards - and on anything else for that matter - for example, the NHS is also back on the table.

That's Brentryasajuniortradepartner (with singular e) for ya. Maybe a stint as a de-facto colony of the former colony will demonstrate to the Brexitards just why everyone with half a brain (or more) was looking down on them this whole time.

Then again, probably not.

It's only logical, really. UK wants to get away from EU and the only viable alternative is to join forces with the USA. The other alternatives are idiotic (Pacific partnership? please ...). USA is close enough for such a partnership to be at least possible and there are historical and linguistic ties between the two countries.

The fact USA is currently ruled by a wannabe dictator who seeks short term profit everywhere and UK as a place to loot just makes the change a bit worse for UK than it already was. UK was going from being first among equals to a junior partner and it won't be able to change that in the foreseeable future.

It's kind of funny, really. The UK-USA deal will leave UK with everything Brexiteers falsely claimed to hate about the EU and none of the upsides. They'll cheer for the deal too, no doubt.

I just hope the disaster we call "Trump presidency" acts as a catalyst for major reform within the USA and brings the country back into sanity. That would help. UK would still piggyback as the anchor the country is, but at least then we could have a reasonable western world back again. One can dream, at least.

McHrozni

 

[Mojo]

I remember a Lenny Henry routine from the 80s or 90s where he said that the UK sees the US as kind of an ally, and the US sees the UK as kind of a warehouse.

Must have been the 90s. In the 80s they saw us as kind of an aircraft carrier.

 

[The Don]

That's Brentryasajuniortradepartner (with singular e) for ya. Maybe a stint as a de-facto colony of the former colony will demonstrate to the Brexitards just why everyone with half a brain (or more) was looking down on them this whole time.

IMO the terms of the UK's relationship with the EU will be determined by the US. After a no-deal Brexit, the UK government will be desperate for a face-saving high profile trade deal. The US would be crazy not to step into the breach, regardless of who is President at the time.

This will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a fire sale trade deal with the world's sixth largest economy.

Despite the logistical difficulties (3,000 miles of ocean as opposed to 22 miles of Channel), the US will become our primary trade partner with all the economic damage that entails.

Then again, probably not.

The US trade deal will be the bestest trade deal ever as far as the Brexiteers are concerned, because the media they consume and the people they surround themselves with will tell them that.

Any slight downsides, like thousands dying annually from food-poisoning, the NHS falling apart and the majority of people working longer hours with fewer employment protections for less money will be considered a price worth paying for the freedoms to do whatever the US tells us whatever we want and/or the fault of Remoaners and/or the EU refusing to negotiate an EU trade deal.

The one thing that the Brexiteers will be sure of was that Brexit was a fabulous idea. Any shortcomings are down to other people.

It's only logical, really. UK wants to get away from EU and the only viable alternative is to join forces with the USA. The other alternatives are idiotic (Pacific partnership? please ...). USA is close enough for such a partnership to be at least possible and there are historical and linguistic ties between the two countries.

That's my view. The Brexiteers like it because from their perspective, the US is an extension of the UK being white (minorities are airbrushed out), culturally similar and speaking the same language. The Brexiteers may even be able to twist it so that in their minds, the UK is the senior partner in some way.

The fact USA is currently ruled by a wannabe dictator who seeks short term profit everywhere and UK as a place to loot just makes the change a bit worse for UK than it already was. UK was going from being first among equals to a junior partner and it won't be able to change that in the foreseeable future.

Apparently the logic is that we were bullied into being first among equals by those horrid Europeans whereas the decision to be the US's lackey was made by us and is therefore a superior position to be in.

It's kind of funny, really. The UK-USA deal will leave UK with everything Brexiteers falsely claimed to hate about the EU and none of the upsides. They'll cheer for the deal too, no doubt.

Yes, remarkable isn't it ?

I just hope the disaster we call "Trump presidency" acts as a catalyst for major reform within the USA and brings the country back into sanity. That would help. UK would still piggyback as the anchor the country is, but at least then we could have a reasonable western world back again. One can dream, at least.

McHrozni

One can. I don't hold out much hope for the next 10-20 years. IMO the post-Covid economic crash will further fuel nationalism and populism which will make the likes of Trump and Johnson more rather than less likely to be popular

 

[McHrozni]

IMO the terms of the UK's relationship with the EU will be determined by the US. After a no-deal Brexit, the UK government will be desperate for a face-saving high profile trade deal. The US would be crazy not to step into the breach, regardless of who is President at the time.

This will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a fire sale trade deal with the world's sixth largest economy.

Despite the logistical difficulties (3,000 miles of ocean as opposed to 22 miles of Channel), the US will become our primary trade partner with all the economic damage that entails.

That is what I'm talking about.

That's my view. The Brexiteers like it because from their perspective, the US is an extension of the UK being white (minorities are airbrushed out), culturally similar and speaking the same language. The Brexiteers may even be able to twist it so that in their minds, the UK is the senior partner in some way.

I agree, but you might want to rethink the hilighted word.

Yes, remarkable isn't it ?

Quite. It's cognitive dissonance at work with the proto-mind, really. X is bad, therefore Y is good, even if it has all the downsides you claimed X had (mostly false) and few of any of the upsides it had (mostly ignored) and no other redeeming features it's still good because X was bad.

One can. I don't hold out much hope for the next 10-20 years. IMO the post-Covid economic crash will further fuel nationalism and populism which will make the likes of Trump and Johnson more rather than less likely to be popular

The silver lining is that Trump and BJ are both in power during the crash and can't use the economy to blame the other political option for. They'll try sure, but it won't be very effective. Plus it's not like the majority believes they anything but mishandled it. Their core supporters do of course, but they're, at best, a plurality of a majority. That can win elections in FPTP ... some of the time, but not with any regularity.

You no longer believe Trump's reelection is inevitable, I take it?

McHrozni

 

[The Great Zaganza]

It seems to me that the success of Brexit will depend on the US November election more than whatever happens in London/Brussels.

 

[The Don]

You no longer believe Trump's reelection is inevitable, I take it?

McHrozni

I never thought it was inevitable, merely likely.

I still think it's likely despite the economy being a mess and President Trump and the GOP messing up Coronavirus and the recent BLM protests because:

• There are still over 4 months to go to the election, a lot can be forgotten in that time.
• By then the economy will be picking up somewhat. It'll still be a basket case but President Trump and the GOP will be able to point at 4 or 5 months of rapid job gains and claim credit for it
• There will likely be a grand announcement in October of a vaccine and/or cure which will give the Trump Administration a huge bump in the polls. By December it'll be shown to be a load of hooey but it'll have done its job
• The recent issues in the Georgia primary has shown what can be expected in red states if people in certain neighbourhoods attempt to vote in person
• Postal ballots will be nigh on impossible to get for certain demographics in red states
• President Trump's base will for sure turn out to vote, whether the same is true of the opposition remains to be seen

I can see him getting 300+ electoral college votes with some unexpected results in red/purple states where voter turnout is very, very low in certain districts. A bunch of those states will be won with wafer thin margins.

OTOH Biden will win the popular vote by a huge margin but that will confirm that voter fraud is rife in blue states with tens of millions of ballots being cast illegally according to the GOP.

 

[McHrozni]

It seems to me that the success of Brexit will depend on the US November election more than whatever happens in London/Brussels.

More like the reason why Brexit failed will.

Either Trump wins and the trade deal with USA makes UK a de facto territory of USA, just with fewer rights; or else Biden wins and prioritises the EU instead, UK is forced into a relationship with the EU that has most of the downsides and few of the upsides of full membership, for the lack of other options.

BJ and Brexiteers celebrate it as a success in either case.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

It seems to me that the success of Brexit will depend on the US November election more than whatever happens in London/Brussels.

I'm not sure that the result of the US election will necessarily make a huge difference. Whether it's a Democratic or GOP President and or Senate, the US will still want the same key things:

• No UK/EU free trade agreement
• Unfettered access to UK markets - including US agricultural products which don't currently adhere to UK standard
• Access to the NHS

The only key point of difference was that Democrats (and some Republicans) were worried about the border in Ireland but Boris Johnson has already addressed this by saying that the border will now be in the Irish Sea (contrary to his many, many pronouncements in the past).

Regardless of who is in charge of the US, they'd be crazy not to demand the most favourable trade terms safe in the knowledge that the UK's Conservative government will be obliged to accept them.

 

[McHrozni]

I never thought it was inevitable, merely likely.

I still think it's likely despite the economy being a mess and President Trump and the GOP messing up Coronavirus and the recent BLM protests because:

• There are still over 4 months to go to the election, a lot can be forgotten in that time.
• By then the economy will be picking up somewhat. It'll still be a basket case but President Trump and the GOP will be able to point at 4 or 5 months of rapid job gains and claim credit for it
• There will likely be a grand announcement in October of a vaccine and/or cure which will give the Trump Administration a huge bump in the polls. By December it'll be shown to be a load of hooey but it'll have done its job
• The recent issues in the Georgia primary has shown what can be expected in red states if people in certain neighbourhoods attempt to vote in person
• Postal ballots will be nigh on impossible to get for certain demographics in red states
• President Trump's base will for sure turn out to vote, whether the same is true of the opposition remains to be seen

I can see him getting 300+ electoral college votes with some unexpected results in red/purple states where voter turnout is very, very low in certain districts. A bunch of those states will be won with wafer thin margins.

OTOH Biden will win the popular vote by a huge margin but that will confirm that voter fraud is rife in blue states with tens of millions of ballots being cast illegally according to the GOP.

We'll see in November. However I think you're overestimating his strength in many key points. The base is a major point - his base will turn out to vote for him, that is guaranteed ... but his base is ~20% of the electorate. Much of the rest will turn out to vote against him. People who are, at best, apathetic about Biden and probably wouldn't bother to vote will at least try to cast their vote, some of the time at a minimum, to make sure Trump isn't reelected.

The reelection is, of course, possible, primarily due to widespread vote suppression and other fraud Trump and his GOP are notorious for.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_yG_-K2MDo

Lincoln project are Republicans against Trump. They're at least effective in their advertising, which is a major weakness of the DNC.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

The silver lining is that Trump and BJ are both in power during the crash and can't use the economy to blame the other political option for. They'll try sure, but it won't be very effective.

I think you underestimate the malleability of the electorate.

Boris Johnson won a stonking majority running a campaign which was essentially "If you're unhappy with the current government and their handling of Brexit, vote for me" - despite the fact that it was his party that had been in power for the last 10 years, his party that had been driving Brexit and he personally that had negotiated this "fantastic" Brexit deal, which has since turned out to be a terrible deal we had been forced into.

When Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have to face reelection in 4 years, they'll be able to successfully campaign as the party to vote for if you're unhappy with Brexit, the Coronavirus and the economic turmoil which has resulted from them.

 

[McHrozni]

I think you underestimate the malleability of the electorate.

Boris Johnson won a stonking majority running a campaign which was essentially "If you're unhappy with the current government and their handling of Brexit, vote for me" - despite the fact that it was his party that had been in power for the last 10 years, his party that had been driving Brexit and he personally that had negotiated this "fantastic" Brexit deal, which has since turned out to be a terrible deal we had been forced into.

When Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have to face reelection in 4 years, they'll be able to successfully campaign as the party to vote for if you're unhappy with Brexit, the Coronavirus and the economic turmoil which has resulted from them.

The difference is that BJ voted on himself handling Brexit and not his party. He used Theresa May as a patsy, he was merely the guy who handled Brexit issues, the fact Brexit became such a mess was all her fault - which isn't even wrong, she did pick him as a member of the cabinet. It's just misleading and hypocritical as hell. Theresa May was in no small part to blame for the failure and BJ even resigned over the deal she approved of. He negotiated it yes, but Theresa May approved of it and tried to have it passed through HoC, BJ loudly opposed. He was in position to say he would've handled things differently as PM and anyone who didn't follow the proceedings closely enough might even believe him.

He's the PM now. Who will he blame for failures of his governmnet? The speaker?

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

We'll see in November. However I think you're overestimating his strength in many key points. The base is a major point - his base will turn out to vote for him, that is guaranteed ... but his base is ~20% of the electorate.

And yet his approval rating is still 40% despite having a simultaneous public health disaster and economic crash. I think his base is much larger than 20%. If you still approve of him now IMO you must be part of his base.

Much of the rest will turn out to vote against him. People who are, at best, apathetic about Biden and probably wouldn't bother to vote will at least try to cast their vote, some of the time at a minimum, to make sure Trump isn't reelected.

They may cast their vote but while people who support President Trump will vote for him, those who are against him have more options. The Libertarians and Greens are marginal parties for sure, but they may be able to siphon away just enough Biden support to allow President Trump to win narrow victories in key states.

I think that there is still a sizeable BernieBro contingent who will not vote for Biden under any circumstances. For them, ideological purity is far more important than something as "trivial" as who is currently running the country

On the other side, there may be some religious fundamentalists who feel that they cannot vote for President Trump because he really is too flawed who absolutely cannot vote for Biden either because he advocates the wholesale slaughter of babies (or however fundies are misrepresenting a woman's right to choose these days).

The reelection is, of course, possible, primarily due to widespread vote suppression and other fraud Trump and his GOP are notorious for.

I think that the GOP will be working very hard to try and ensure that as few people from certain demographics vote as possible - especially in swing states.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_yG_-K2MDo

Lincoln project are Republicans against Trump. They're at least effective in their advertising, which is a major weakness of the DNC.

McHrozni

Yes, it's great stuff and I agree that the DNC have (so far) had very weak messaging.

IMO however, they are preaching to the choir.

 

[The Don]

He's the PM now. Who will he blame for failures of his governmnet? The speaker?

McHrozni

Oh, there are plenty of alternatives, the top few being:

• The ministers who, despite the faith that Boris Johnson put in them, failed to come up with effective policies to square the circle
• The "fifth column" within his own party who tried, however ineffectively, to protect food standards, the farmers, British workers and so on
• The rearguard action fought by Remoaners, the Labour Party and the UK "deep state" which undermined Boris Johnson's government
• The EU
• Factors completely beyond his control - like the Coronavirus

IMO enough people will buy this **** and/or will be convinced that the Starmer-led Labour Party are radical leftists in disguise that they will continue to cast their vote for the Conservatives.

Alternatively the Conservatives could bin Boris Johnson and call for the country to rally round the new leader.

Of course it Scotland achieves independence, then unless there is a schism in the Conservative Party and/or a huge electoral shift, the Conservatives will be in power in the rUK for the rest of my life (I'm 53 and plan to live for at least another 40 years).

 

[The Don]

Meanwhile, today's Daily Express' front page headline is that a Brexit deal will be sealed in July because the EU is just about to fold

Other newspapers are reporting a thaw in relations, not least because Boris Johnson hasn't (yet) stormed out of these negotiations. The last "great" Boris Deal^TM involved the UK unilaterally folding on some of our "red-lines". I wonder whether this will be much the same ?