Breaking down telepathy

[dafydd]

On this thread I said my mother in law knew when I went into labour, can you explain that?

.

Anecdotes are not evidence.

 

[Kleonaptra]

Hi Kleonaptra, don't worry, it's plenty enough if you can do it with your own stallion There's no need to complicate things, choose one item, maybe an apple, all you have to do is correctly sense whether your horse is eating an apple or is not eating an apple (of course without hearing or seeing it). If you get it right x amount of times you have demonstrated an ability so amazing that million dollars (or even hundred million dollars) pale next to it.

I'm sure we can help you with a simple protocol if you're interested. Oh, and earlier you wrote:





You should definitely choose only the people that you know are able to do it. It doesn't matter if they are skeptics or believers or even aliens, the only thing that matters is that they can do it. You should concentrate on the people who are best at doing it, every test worth something is designed in a way where it doesn't matter what the people participating believe in.

Believe me, I'd love to work with people who can do it every day. It just wont happen, they live too far away from me. And if I can demonstrate 100% accuracy all the time with the same person, it will only be proof of some wacky connection between the two of us, not telepathy. So, Im going to put together a deck of 25 cards, and try to practise everyday. When Im home it will be my partner, at work it will be whoever I can catch on lunch break.

My stallion is already worth more than a million. Some people call a close bond a 'training deficit' and in most cases Id have to agree, but all us horsey girls grew up on the 'Black stallion' so its nice to know, thats one myth thats true.

 

[MRC_Hans]

I thought I was allowed to assume telepathy exists, for the purposes of my experiment, so long as I didnt try to convince anyone else it existed without evidence.

You are allowed to assume what you will. And we are allowed to challenge your assumption, if you post it here.

However, and I put this down to your lack of education, mentioned by yourself, making such assumptions is not the proper way to investigate a subject.

What you have is some observations that might be interpreted as telepathy. So you want to investigate. Fine, so far!

However, the basic assumption, what we call the null hypothesis, must always be that it does not exist. Otherwise we run an even greater risk of fooling ourselves.

So what you do now is test the hypothesis that telepathy exists, against the null hypotheses. This sounds complicated, but it isn't really.

The null hypothesis is that all your observations are due to mundane explanations. You can falsify that if there is an observation that has no possible mundane explanation. Unfortunately, that is never the case. If all else fails, your telepathic 'hit' could be due to sheer luck.

So one must design a series of experiments where all mundane explanations are ruled out, including luck (luck can be ruled out by statistics).

Such experiment protocols have already been suggested, and you could perform some of them. I must warn you, though: You are not the first to try that, and so far, all have failed.

Hans

 

[Pixel42]

In here, getting your claims challenged is a sign of respect.

Seconded.

Kleonaptra: it may seem like we're giving you a hard time, but it's a genuine pleasure to have someone putting the other side of this argument who is articulate and prepared to actually read and understand the responses. Most people who come here and make paranormal claims are barely coherant, and interested only in lecturing the regulars who they assume know far less than they do about the paranormal - an assumption that is usually the most hilariously wrong of a large collection of provably wrong assumptions. [There's a textbook case also posting at the moment, I'm sure you know who I mean].

So don't be put off; continue to explore and discuss your gift (which is still remarkable even if it does turn out not to be paranormal) with people who will be open to what you say, but quick to point out any assertions which cannot be supported.

 

[Kleonaptra]

That is an unsupported paranormal claim. You claim telepathy exists.



Yes, I have noticed your attempt to redefine or blur the definition, but 'telepathy' is a clear and unambiguous term.



Did you go into labour at an unexpected time?
Did she blurt "I can feel your pain!" before you even had time to say "hello" when you picked up the phone?
No and no?
So she called you, expecting it might be your time, and even when you said "hello", she sensed the strain in your voice.

When I call my wife (I travel a lot) I can hear her mood as soon as she answers the phone. You can that with people you know well.



How many of your rescue animals do NOT have intestinal worms?



It is none of our business. And it was irrelevant for the discussion at hand.



It is none of our business. And it was irrelevant for the discussion at hand.



Why do you keep making unsubstantiated claims? This is a sceptical discussion forum, so when you say you will work on improving your telepathic powers, don't expect people to pat you on the back and say "cool".

- Or if we do, you'll know we have stopped taking you seriously altogether.

In here, getting your claims challenged is a sign of respect.

Hans

I am genuinely sorry. I didnt think believing was claiming. I came here to learn and boy, am I ever learning. I thought if I said I believed in telepathy without evidence you would all just go 'woo' and not keep asking me for evidence I admitted I dont have.

I wasnt trying to blur it or change the definition, Im trying to understand and show that I know why I wont be believed. What I understand now is that its possible Im a victim of confirmation bias, and I'll start taking notes to see if thats true.

Actually, yes, she did just that. I was having pains for about half an hour. My phone rang. Before I could even say hello, she yelled, "Its started hasnt it! I can feel it - you're having pains!"

But probably the most paranormal thing about that is that I have a good relationship with my mum in law.

The majority of flying birds have massive resistance to intestinal worms. I expected to be wrong, because its rare. Most birds that are still able to fly that Ive caught did not have worms or lice. The ones that did ended up dying and Ive concluded that if they are sick enough to have worms and lice, their survival mechanisims are so depleted they are going to die with or without me.

Point taken. I appreciate that and Im sorry I used that for an example. I only mentioned it in the first place to give anyone that wanted it an excuse to dismiss anything i said.

As I mentioned, I didnt think my beliefs amounted to claims. Just because I believe something doesnt mean I have scientific evidence to prove it, thats just faith, (No Im not religious, failed catholic) and wondering how science would explain things.

Well. I thought since I was the first person to actually try and strengthen my ability before I went for the million, you might give me a little credit for that.

And in that case, thankyou very much.

 

[Kleonaptra]

You are allowed to assume what you will. And we are allowed to challenge your assumption, if you post it here.

However, and I put this down to your lack of education, mentioned by yourself, making such assumptions is not the proper way to investigate a subject.

What you have is some observations that might be interpreted as telepathy. So you want to investigate. Fine, so far!

However, the basic assumption, what we call the null hypothesis, must always be that it does not exist. Otherwise we run an even greater risk of fooling ourselves.

So what you do now is test the hypothesis that telepathy exists, against the null hypotheses. This sounds complicated, but it isn't really.

The null hypothesis is that all your observations are due to mundane explanations. You can falsify that if there is an observation that has no possible mundane explanation. Unfortunately, that is never the case. If all else fails, your telepathic 'hit' could be due to sheer luck.

So one must design a series of experiments where all mundane explanations are ruled out, including luck (luck can be ruled out by statistics).

Such experiment protocols have already been suggested, and you could perform some of them. I must warn you, though: You are not the first to try that, and so far, all have failed.

Hans

Thankyou. I agree with what you are saying, but I cant work under the assumption it doesnt exist. My belief is that it does. I suppose that most accurately describes why Im here because I know my own feelings cant be trusted. Im trying to make friends in the scientific side of things, because I roll my eyes at the psychics reading palms at the fair, the astrologers on the morning show. I can tell they are fooling themselves. But I dont think I am. Cant explain it, dont claim to have evidence for it, but I'm looking for it, I want to find it.

 

[Kleonaptra]

Seconded.

Kleonaptra: it may seem like we're giving you a hard time, but it's a genuine pleasure to have someone putting the other side of this argument who is articulate and prepared to actually read and understand the responses. Most people who come here and make paranormal claims are barely coherant, and interested only in lecturing the regulars who they assume know far less than they do about the paranormal - an assumption that is usually the most hilariously wrong of a large collection of provably wrong assumptions. [There's a textbook case also posting at the moment, I'm sure you know who I mean].

So don't be put off; continue to explore and discuss your gift (which is still remarkable even if it does turn out not to be paranormal) with people who will be open to what you say, but quick to point out any assertions which cannot be supported.

Thanks. When I joined this forum I was thinking 'oh why are you doing this? its just gonna be blood in the water and me not making any sense' but I jumped in any way. I expected a hard time.

*sigh* I know who you mean. I agree with both sides, I think we get out of context and easily misunderstood. It happens when you dont have the right words. I'm just quick to apologise.

I am sick of any person who claims to be psychic coming into these discussions and getting incoherant and emotional. I believe any person who takes money is not truly psychic. Anyone who truly understands karma cant take money for it.

Im not put off, at all, its a pleasure on my side too. Point out my assertions, by all means. I'm not sure I agree with remarkable, since todays evidence is srongly suggesting confirmation bias.

 

[MRC_Hans]

As I mentioned, I didnt think my beliefs amounted to claims.

You worded them as claims. You even do it again below. Since you show no sign otherwise of a language barrier (a lot of posters here, including myself, btw, have English as their second language, and some of them have some difficulties with it), we take your words at face value.

Just because I believe something doesnt mean I have scientific evidence to prove it, thats just faith, (No Im not religious, failed catholic) and wondering how science would explain things.

But you did not express it as a belief.
- Let's let that lie, you have made yourself clear by now.

Well. I thought since I was the first person to actually try and strengthen my ability before I went for the million, you might give me a little credit for that.

What we would appreciate was that you tested your ability before going for the million. Strengthening it would just mean strengthening your belief, and that leads nowhere.

And in that case, thankyou very much.

You're welcome. So many come here and are not really worthwhile of debate. We tend to do so anyway ... a form of masochism I suppose , but you seem worthwhile.

Don't worry about the tone. The total amount of BS passing through promotes a certain callousness, but it is all in a good meaning. ... Well, most of it.

Hans

 

[Kleonaptra]

Can someone tell me how to split the quotes like that? I've been trying but I cant get it to work.

My tone is often homourus but I forget that without icons text can be interpreted a multitude of ways.

 

[Stray Cat]

Can someone tell me how to split the quotes like that? I've been trying but I cant get it to work.

Yup, as long as the sentence or paragraph that you wish to quote has a quote tag at the start and an end quote tag at the end it'll work.

So if you took the 'X's out of this:

[quoteX]this would show as a quoted piece of text[/quoteX]

it would look like this:

this would show as a quoted piece of text

 

[Kleonaptra]

Thanks. I tried that once before but it didnt come up in a quote bar, just with brackets. Must have had something wrong.

 

[PixyMisa]

Im simply saying there is a bias to the evidence you want.

Special pleading.

I have only made one claim - that with time I can improve my accuracy in telepathy.

You first have to demonstrate that telepathy exists. You haven't even begun to do that.

On this thread I said my mother in law knew when I went into labour, can you explain that?

Sure.

Confirmation bias.

If she'd guessed that you'd gone into labour the day before, no-one would have remembered anything. People guess wrong all the time.

You forget the misses and remember the hits.

I knew, on picking up my last rescue animal, that it had intestinal worms, what are your thoughts on this?

Confirmation bias.

I claimed to have a medically diagnosed psychosis. You did not ask me to provide evidence for this claim.

It's not relevant.

I also claimed to be poorly educated. You did not ask me to provide evidence for this claim.

That's not directly relevant either.

Basically, you know I dont have evidence, Ive admitted it many times, and if I did I'd be in the MDC right now. So if we both know I dont have the evidence you want, why do you keep asking for it.

Because that's what matters. Stop fishing for explanations for something when you haven't even established that it happened in the first place.

Get the evidence first. Once you've established that there's something to explain, you can start looking for an explanation.

 

[MRC_Hans]

Can someone tell me how to split the quotes like that? I've been trying but I cant get it to work.

My tone is often homourus but I forget that without icons text can be interpreted a multitude of ways.

You need to type in [ quote ] and [ /quote ] tags (without the spaces, of course). It's a little tedious, but very useful.

Hans

 

[Kleonaptra]

Pixy -

We will never be able to communicate. I think you are looking at everything backwards, and you think I am. For example - I will never believe that experiment conducted by the nine year old girl is effective evidence against energy healing, theres too much human opinion involved. I accept that your explanation to anything Ive experienced is confirmation bias. Ive even mentioned that in my own posts because I know its a possibility.

But Im not going to stop looking in my own way. I do believe science will explain everything one day, 'it doesnt exist' just isnt good enough for me.

 

[PixyMisa]

Thankyou. I agree with what you are saying, but I cant work under the assumption it doesnt exist. My belief is that it does.

It doesn't actually matter what you believe; what matters is how you conduct the experiment. As long as you design and carry out the experiment so that your belief can't change the results, the experiment will be valid.

That's why, for example, medical trials are usually double-blinded and placebo-controlled. Neither the patient nor the researcher will know whether they are getting the trial drug or the placebo. At the end you just have a bunch of numbers, and the numbers will reflect the evidence rather than anyone's belief.

Paranormal and alternative medicine researchers are incredibly bad at this; their research is utterly worthless almost without exception because they let their personal biases colour the results.

So, a couple of things you should know:

First, there is no evidence anywhere, ever, for telepathy or any other psi or paranormal ability. You read all sorts of stuff, but whenever you dig into it, the evidence simply isn't there.

Second, telepathy is impossible. It's perfectly straightforward to communicate silently and invisibly over a great distance; you can pick up a device to do that at the supermarket these days. But there needs to be a signal sent. There is only one way to do that, and that's via the electromagnetic force, and to do that you'd need some kind of antenna to produce and receive the signal. That does not exist, not in the brain, not anywhere in the body, and the signals don't exist either.

So we know as soon as anyone brings up telepathy that they have to be wrong. It's never happened, it can't happen. So it's hardly a surprise that no-one ever has any evidence, just stories about odd coincidences.

Those coincidences may seem striking, but coincidences happen everywhere in the world, every minute of the day. If you go looking for strange coincidences, you will find them, because statistically, strange coincidences are perfectly normal. This is known as the Principle of Oddmatches.

 

[The Don]

Pixy -

We will never be able to communicate. I think you are looking at everything backwards, and you think I am. For example - I will never believe that experiment conducted by the nine year old girl is effective evidence against energy healing, theres too much human opinion involved.

The thing is, the experiment was designed in such a way as to remove opinion as far as possible . The experiment was merely whether Therapeutic Touch (TT) practitioners could detect her aura (as they claimed to be able to). They were unable to do better than chance.

I accept that your explanation to anything Ive experienced is confirmation bias. Ive even mentioned that in my own posts because I know its a possibility.

....and yet still you believe in telepathy.

But Im not going to stop looking in my own way. I do believe science will explain everything one day, 'it doesnt exist' just isnt good enough for me.

So despite all the evidence that there is no such thing as telepathy, despite all the failed studies you are still going to persist in the belief.

Tell me, what evidence could convince you that telepathy does not exist ?

 

[PixyMisa]

Pixy -

We will never be able to communicate. I think you are looking at everything backwards, and you think I am. For example - I will never believe that experiment conducted by the nine year old girl is effective evidence against energy healing, theres too much human opinion involved.

The experiment was very simple.

Some people claimed to have a "healing touch", including being able to sense the presence of others.

When put to the test, they could not sense the presence of others. They just couldn't do it.

They said they could do it. They couldn't.

No opinion involved anywhere; the experiment didn't care about anyone's opinion. That's what makes it a good experiment.

And they couldn't do what they claimed.

There are two big lessons here:

First, a nine-year-old girl practising proper science demolished the beliefs of any number of educated adults.

Second, this happens every single time with paranormal claims. The moment you prevent opinion from skewing the results, the claimed effect disappears.

But Im not going to stop looking in my own way. I do believe science will explain everything one day, 'it doesnt exist' just isnt good enough for me.

See my post above. Whether it's good enough for you or not, the truth is that telepathy does not exist.

 

[Resume]

But Im not going to stop looking in my own way. I do believe science will explain everything one day, 'it doesnt exist' just isnt good enough for me.

How much time will you waste on phenomena that doesn't exist? There are myriad things you could be doing in its stead that would be more productive and perhaps more gratifying. Almost anything, really.

 

[Kuko 4000]

Believe me, I'd love to work with people who can do it every day. It just wont happen, they live too far away from me.

Ok, that's too bad. Anyways, I'd like to know who these people are, can you name some, or give us a link?

And if I can demonstrate 100% accuracy all the time with the same person, it will only be proof of some wacky connection between the two of us, not telepathy.

It would be telepathy between you two, or at least something as amazing. This demonstration alone would change the whole face of science and philosophy forever. You don't seem to realize how amazing ability that would be?*
For one thing, it would make you unbelievably rich, and I'm sure we could find many positive charities that would be thrilled to receive a couple of million dollars per month from you. This would be a great way to make the world much safer, healthier and all-around better place to live in, something that all the yogis and gurus with big claims such as this seem to forget or ignore in their great wisdom...

So, Im going to put together a deck of 25 cards, and try to practise everyday. When Im home it will be my partner, at work it will be whoever I can catch on lunch break.

That's good too, let us know if you need any help with protocols and remember to report back your progress


* This is an interesting point that I come across very often, just a couple of weeks ago I met a person who was sure that some monks can actually levitate, she didn't think it was a big deal at all

 

[MRC_Hans]

* This is an interesting point that I come across very often, just a couple of weeks ago I met a person who was sure that some monks can actually levitate, she didn't think it was a big deal at all

That is very usual, both with scams and genuine believers. Telepathy would change the face of the world, at least it would completely rearrange the way human societies function. Crime would become impossible, lies would become impossible, wars would become almost impossible. Politics would be an entirely different ball game. Yet we are talking about worried horses.

It's like the guy who claimed he had invented a free energy device, and then suggested it might be used for powereing people's trailers.

There is a huge lack of perspective, here.

However, I think we should give Kleonaptra some slack: It is really, really hard to have your rug pulled from under you. Those of us who were originally believers generally took years to give it up. Let it sink in, let her do experiments. I think she has potential.

Hans