Merged Bitcoin - Part 3
- Thread starter Dr.Sid
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It is really easy for bitcoin to go north.
25k would be margin of error and not mean a bull market.
It may be just that, but I recommend looking at the logarithmic weekly chart to see what a mammoth task is ahead for crypto generally.
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
So far it's just a spike, very like that one from December 14th. It also started to drop again.
Chanakya
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Heh, if you're invested into this thing to any substantial degree, then you'd better not have a weak heart. This endless yo-yo-ing, it's bound to result in some failed hearts, for those who've put a great deal into it.
eta: Although I suppose the skeptical thing to do would be to ask, Has it actually? I'm sure there are lots of folks who've very substantial investements in BTC (substantial not just in absolute amounts, that's kind of an irrelevancy, but as proportion of their entire investment portfolio). But I haven't actually heard or read of people dying off of it. (Or, it could be, that it's just that I've not happened to have heard of it, I don't know.)
eta: Although I suppose the skeptical thing to do would be to ask, Has it actually? I'm sure there are lots of folks who've very substantial investements in BTC (substantial not just in absolute amounts, that's kind of an irrelevancy, but as proportion of their entire investment portfolio). But I haven't actually heard or read of people dying off of it. (Or, it could be, that it's just that I've not happened to have heard of it, I don't know.)
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Dr.Sid
Philosopher
Well BTC is volatile and always was. Sane people won't invest money they can't live without. I know nobody who did. I know many people who lost inconsequential amounts though. And I know one guy, who made millions from nothing, as he started early.
Chanakya
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Well, I don't know. I mean, for one thing there's lots of people that aren't quite "sane" in that sense, and do make risky investments they can't afford. And besides, this might apply even to those who might have actually made a great deal of paper money off of BTC ("a great deal", in comparison with the rest of their NW in terms of real, fiat money) --- seeing like 75% of your NW, maybe even more, go yo-yoing around can't be good for anyone's heart. On the other hand, if they haven't that kind of appetite, then I suppose they can just bail next time there's a spike, indeed they'd already have done that.
In any event, given that I haven't actually heard news reports saying (in fact screaming, given how dramatic that would sound) "Investor so-and-so lost all his money in the BTC slump, and either killed himself or had his heart give out", this is just idle speculation, is all.
wareyin
Penultimate Amazing
You surely haven't heard of it because (as we've been told in this very thread!) simply hang on to bitcoin and you absolutely will make money. These people who've invested substantially into BTC know that despite current the massive drop off in value, if they just hang on long enough a bunch of rich suckers will forget all the crypto problems and start buying them again.
Although, we have heard of a lot of crypto investors who have lost a lot. Some lost it all, some (like Tom Brady) are wealthy enough to eat a massive loss and not even feel it. So maybe people can (and do) lose a lot of money and either not die or not be considered important enough that their death would be reported.
lomiller
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That's something that applies to gambling, but not to anything I would consider investing. IMO the limit to investing is how much money you can raise because the expected return on an investment should exceed the cost of borrowing.
Consider, for example, a Vegas casino. While the patrons are gambling, the house most certainly is not. The casino *knows* that over time they will make more than they loose, IMO investing means emulating the casino not it's customers.
This is true even for speculators. Eg A speculator may look at how the Jewelry market in India has on the price of gold, and see that Indian economic data shows Indians will be able to afford even more Jewelry in the future. Know this they "bet" on gold prices going up. Like the Casino the speculator won't win every bet, but because they started with the odds stacked in their favor, like the casino, they can expect to win more often then they loose.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is pure gambling. There are no underlying market forces pushing prices up and down other than the actions of the speculators themselves, and that's the best case scenarios. In the worst case scenarios, large bitcoin players are manipulating prices in their favor, meaning everyone else is more likely to loose than win.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
After all the relatively rational discussions about "wash trading" and other short comings associated with crypto exchanges it was only a matter of time before somebody decided to gild the lily and start reposting crap.
wareyin
Penultimate Amazing
After all the relatively rational discussions about "wash trading" and other short comings associated with crypto exchanges it was only a matter of time before somebody decided to gild the lily and start reposting crap.
Wah, someone said something accurate about BTC that made it look bad!
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Like I said, CRAP!
wareyin
Penultimate Amazing
It's ok, there really are still suckers willing to pay for BTC. For now. Me pointing out that they're suckers isn't what will do your precious BTC in.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
No it isn't. You deliberately posted BS just so that if anybody called you out then you could say "bitcoin lover". That is how dishonest you are.
wareyin
Penultimate Amazing
jeremyp
Philosopher
After all the relatively rational discussions about "wash trading" and other short comings associated with crypto exchanges it was only a matter of time before somebody decided to gild the lily and start reposting crap.
But it's precisely how Bitcoin speculation works. If you bought at the top of the market, your only hope of realising a profit is that people forget how badly burned you can be by BTC trading and start buying again. The only thing you might be able to protest about in terms of the comment is the use of the word "suckers", but it's really just a restating of "bigger fool".
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
"Bigger fool" is true of every commodity in the world. The only way you can profit from a purchase is to find somebody who is willing to pay a higher price than you paid for it.
Cue the special pleading.
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Suddenly
No Punting
"Bigger fool" is true of every commodity in the world. The only way you can profit from a purchase is to find somebody who is willing to pay a higher price than you paid for it.
Cue the special pleading.
Is pointing out that the final buyer of a commodity actually ends up with something special pleading?
I mean, I don't see the problem anyway. Any currency or store of value is essentially built on the trust that other people will want it.
Currency trading is a sign that the a currency isn't all that stable in value and is necessary to ever bring that currency to a stable value.
I think the perception that bitcoin at $100K or whatever means success is most of the problem. Bitcoin staying at a stable predictable price would mean success. Whether that's possible with a deflationary currency is a whole other thing, and the hodlers are just making adaption less likely by effectively running a largely unintentional pump and dump scheme
I'm all for crypto in theory. A lot of interesting things could be done with it. Bitcoin is imo what e-mail is to internet communications. Garbage protocol that holds on by becoming a standard. The adoption of better currencies right now is being crippled because it's just so easy to get away with fraud.
A lot of that is fixable...
jeremyp
Philosopher
Except when you buy a commodity, you have the commodity. When you buy Bitcoin, all you've got is a number.
And so what? Just because there are other bigger fool "scams" doesn't make it any less problematic that BTC is one.
gnome
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"Bigger fool" is true of every commodity in the world. The only way you can profit from a purchase is to find somebody who is willing to pay a higher price than you paid for it.
Cue the special pleading.
I can also profit from a purchase if it is of more utility to me than what I spent on it.
lomiller
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Unlike bitcoin, with actual commodities there can be good economic reasons why the value goes up because people actually USE them for something.
Cue the special pleading.
Well poising noted. The funny thing is that's it's really bitcoin that is the subject of special pleading. Commodities can rise in value because people want to drive their cars, build things, buy jewelry, eat, etc. All we ever get from you is claims that bitcoin is so special that these things don't apply.