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Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

Samson said:
Meanwhile bitcoin is poised to crash below production cost of 7k.

That is why Buffet and Munger see rat poison.
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Oh look, another 'bitcoin is surely doomed this time' prediction by Samson.

Just keep them coming and if you live long enough you might accidentally get it right.
 
THE TRUE PURPOSE OF BITCOIN

The Sodinokibi / REvil extortionists that struck Lion recently, encrypting and exfiltrating the beverage giant's corporate data want US$800,000 ($1.24 million) in ransom, a sum that will double in two days.

The Herald has viewed the ransom note which points to a hidden transaction site hosted on a Russian network where victims are asked to pay the REvil / Sodinokibi criminals.

READ MORE:
• Beer shortages possible after Lion brewery shut down following cyber attack
• Lion ransomware attack: Speights back online, but supply problems continue for other beers
• Lion: Ransomware attack causing significant problems
• Cyber attack at Lion brewery disrupts supply of beer

To obtain decryptor software that the ransomware criminals promise will work and not delete or corrupt the scrambled files, Lion is required to buy $800,000 worth of the Monero cryptocurrency, either directly via an exchange, or by first obtaining Bitcoin.

Monero uses an obfuscated public ledger, making it difficult to see the sender of the funds, and the destination and amount of the transaction.

The transaction site offers a live chat window for contacting the ransomware criminals, which contains a message threatening the publication of the corporate data copied.

"This is while hidden post, but it will be published after time expired. If you don't pay anyway, we publish download link for all your confidential files.

"You will lose reputation for clients, get different penals because you didn't protected personal data, your competitors or other people from public will use your financial data in their interests. If you don't want that, I recommend you pay money in time.

Behind paywall, the New Zealand Herald should not paywall this. Bitcoin and all cryptos should be made illegal on New Zealand based servers as the true horror of cryptos is exposed.
And it is true, New Zealand pubs are devoid of stock.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12340812
 
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I know the distribution manager for Lion and his life is a nightmare.
Thank you Satoshi Nakamoto and the hideous entourage who are wiping out the planet and the pleasures of existence.

Only a fast descent to intrinsic value, zero, for all cryptos, will save cyberspace now.
 
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Samson said:
I know the distribution manager for Lion and his life is a nightmare.
Thank you Satoshi Nakamoto and the hideous entourage who are wiping out the planet and the pleasures of existence.

Only a fast descent to intrinsic value, zero, for all cryptos, will save cyberspace now.
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Pls. Ransomware is here for years. And there is no warranty you get anything if you pay. When you get ransomware, you treat is as data loss. You restore from backups, and go on. Usually it's not the servers, which are the problem. Those are usually backed up. The problem is all the workstations and executive notebooks. These usually are not backed up, and bunch of interns will spend days to reinstall them all.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Pls. Ransomware is here for years. And there is no warranty you get anything if you pay. When you get ransomware, you treat is as data loss. You restore from backups, and go on. Usually it's not the servers, which are the problem. Those are usually backed up. The problem is all the workstations and executive notebooks. These usually are not backed up, and bunch of interns will spend days to reinstall them all.
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Thanks I'll let him know.
This will brighten his day.😉
 
psionl0 said:
The estimated cost to mine a bitcoin varies from web site to web site.
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Weasel words. Even if every website published precisely accurate figures (an obvious impossibility given that not all Bitcoin miners are registered companies who have to declare their costs) since costs vary over time the figures are expected to vary. That doesn't justify your assertion that the numbers have ZERO reliability.

It should be so simple. Given the estimated total average power being used globally to mine for bitcoins, you multiply that by 1/6 hours and divide by 6.25 bitcoins to get the number of KWh needed to mine a single bitcoin.
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Simple, but not so 'reliable'. The estimated total average power being used globally to mine for bitcoins is just that - an estimate. There is no reason to believe it is more accurate than other methods (eg. getting cost information directly from miners).

But do you think that any web site will give you raw data like that? No. All you get is pre-digested conclusions.
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Conclusions like "the Antminer S9... Given current difficulty, 0.04$/kWh and S9 running custom firmware bringing it down to 71W per TH efficiency. The cost to mine 1 BTC is $8206.64"? Is that data not 'raw' enough for you?

You are making this efficient market hypothesis backwards. The cost of mining bitcoin depends on the price of bitcoin (or its perceived long term price). If the price of bitcoin rises then more miners will find it profitable to join the fray thus pushing up the production cost and if the price of bitcoin falls then some existing miners will find that producing bitcoin is unprofitable and drop out thus lowering the production cost for other miners.
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The proximate cost of mining Bitcoin is the difficulty level. This has nothing to do with the price.

A short introduction to Bitcoin mining difficulty
The mining difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks which are approximately 2 weeks considering an average of 10 minutes per block. Bitcoin algorithm provides this adjustment very easily. If the previous 2016 blocks took more or less than 2 weeks to find, the difficulty is increased or decreased in the proportion of the amount of time difference to the 2 weeks.

This difficulty needs to be adjusted because there are variations on how much computing power, i.e. the total hash rate exists in the Bitcoin network. More miners contributing, bigger the total hash rate and the need to increase the difficulty...

However, in 2018 we are seeing a rather strange behavior. Although Bitcoin price has dropped quite a lot, more than 80% from the all-time high, the mining difficulty has been keeping to rise like crazy! The hash rate (and total mining power) grows 3.5x in 2018 and at the same time, the price has dropped 80%.

This fact leads to the worst moment in the history of Bitcoin mining. Even the recent drop of the mining difficulty is not enough to keep up with the price drop and keep decent profitability level to miners.
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And it's happening again.

Bitcoin has just posted its biggest mining difficulty increase in nearly 2.5 years.
The 14.95% rise is the biggest difficulty jump since January 2018, which saw a larger spike on the back of the 2017 crypto market bull run, data compiled by BTC.com shows.

As a result, miners contributing hashing power to the network are now facing the fourth-most difficult two-week mining period in Bitcoin’s history.

“With the value of hashrate set to decrease to $0.075 cents per TH/s, not many of the existing, old-gen equipment will turn back on,” said Ethan Vera, co-founder and CFO of the Luxor mining pool. “New hashrate coming onto the market will likely be driven by new-gen and high-efficiency machines.”

Kevin Zhang, director of blockchain strategies at New York-based bitcoin mining-power plant hybrid Greenidge Generation, offered a similar view, saying the firm’s strategy is to stay competitive by procuring and running the latest-generation equipment.

“Despite limited price action, we expect the hash rate to continue rising in the near term as more older generation miners go offline and newer generation ones come online,” he said.
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Miners get more advanced hardware that processes the blockchain faster, causing the difficulty level to rise. This is the reason mining costs go up. When the price goes down these more efficient miners are still working, so the difficulty rate stays high until they stop running because the price has dropped below cost. In theory the cost and price should converge, but in practice the feedback delays and external factors (improved tech, changing power prices etc.) can cause the opposite as the feedback turns positive or chaotic.
 

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Roger Ramjets said:
Conclusions like "the Antminer S9... Given current difficulty, 0.04$/kWh and S9 running custom firmware bringing it down to 71W per TH efficiency. The cost to mine 1 BTC is $8206.64"? Is that data not 'raw' enough for you?
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Certainly not! It is just a single data point and provided none of the raw data that lead to this conclusion.

Roger Ramjets said:
The proximate cost of mining Bitcoin is the difficulty level. This has nothing to do with the price.
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And what do you think drives this difficulty level (attracts more miners)?
 
crypto increasingly used for speculation not store of value

Crypto Research Report Predicts $397K Bitcoin Price by 2030
“We believe that Bitcoin is still at the very start of its adoption curve,” the report states. “The price of $7,200 at the end of 2019 suggests that Bitcoin has penetrated less than 0.44% of its total addressable markets [worth $212 trillion]. If this penetration manages to reach 10%, its non-discounted utility price should reach nearly $400,000.”

The ‎Liechtenstein-based research group analyzed cryptocurrencies based on their target addressable market, or TAM, a metric used “to estimate a cryptoasset’s implied future price.” According to the report, TAMs for cryptocurrencies include remittance, tax evasion, offshore accounts, store of value, online transactions, micropayments, crypto trading, gaming, online gambling, consumer loans, reserve currency and others.

The report also observed on- and off-chain velocity metrics for altcoins and concluded that the “growth in the number of speculative transactions on exchanges is faster than growth of utility transactions to buy goods and services.”...

“High velocity on-chain and low velocity off-chain suggests that crypto assets are becoming increasingly used for speculation and not for store of value.”
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Half the price it was 3 years ago, but don't despair. Keep HODLing those Bitcoins and that pot o' gold will soon be yours. Just another year er, I mean 5 years, and everybody will be rich!
 
Roger Ramjets said:
Crypto Research Report Predicts $397K Bitcoin Price by 2030

Half the price it was 3 years ago, but don't despair. Keep HODLing those Bitcoins and that pot o' gold will soon be yours. Just another year er, I mean 5 years, and everybody will be rich!
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Bookmark that link. It predicts a price of $19,000 by the end of the year (less than 6 months to go) which would mean that this time it took only 2 years to regain its peak price.

Of course, that article is just so much crystal ball gazing and if any part of the article is suspect then all of it is suspect - including the parts you highlighted.
 
There has been very close correlation with wall street for 2020. This is new and maybe suggests institutional uptake?
 
psionl0 said:
Bookmark that link. It predicts a price of $19,000 by the end of the year (less than 6 months to go) which would mean that this time it took only 2 years to regain its peak price.

Of course, that article is just so much crystal ball gazing and if any part of the article is suspect then all of it is suspect - including the parts you highlighted.
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Sorry but I have to disagree. They made projections based on a presumption of increased market penetration. That may not happen, but the parts I highlighted are already happening.

Samson said:
There has been very close correlation with wall street for 2020. This is new and maybe suggests institutional uptake?
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It suggests that Bitcoin has become just another vehicle for speculation. If so then it's a real shame, because it means Bitcoin has become part of the system that its inventor was trying to break free of. It also means the dream of it being 'the people's currency' is over.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
It suggests that Bitcoin has become just another vehicle for speculation. If so then it's a real shame, because it means Bitcoin has become part of the system that its inventor was trying to break free of. It also means the dream of it being 'the people's currency' is over.
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Bitcoin was meant as way to break free of speculation ? How was that supposed to work ?
 
Dr.Sid said:
Bitcoin was meant as way to break free of speculation ?
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That's not what I said. But the destabilization of fiat currencies caused by speculation was one of the things Bitcoin was supposed to be free of.

Bitcoin was invented in response to the 2008 finance crisis, which was largely caused by speculation in US housing markets. The inventor apparently naively thought that a highly deflationary 'currency' that governments can't control would not be seized upon by those same speculators. Or perhaps he knew exactly what he was doing, and had figured out a way to get rich by attracting them.

How was that supposed to work ?
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Good question. If 'Satoshi Nakamoto' was a typical libertarian anarchist type then he may simply have misunderstood the nature of his creation. Perhaps - despite the rhetoric about needing to counter the 'debasement' of fiat currencies by governments 'printing money' - he didn't think it would actually take off. Perhaps he mined those 1 million Bitcoins just to give the blockchain something to work with, not thinking about how their 'value' would increase if people actually started using it. I bet he understands now though, because he just 'printed' himself a fortune!
 
Dr.Sid said:
I actually think profit for Nakamoto was the main reason for creation of BTC. The rest of the lore is just advertisement.
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Not only are you reading the mind of somebody you don't even know exists but you are also attributing psychic powers to that person.
 
Bitcoin won't be dying off anytime soon. When it does it will be because a better crypto took it's place.

I'm curious how many people participating in this thread have actually bought/mined bitcoin or used it to purchase something.
 
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