Bitcoin - Part 2

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Belz... said:
Does anyone know the volume of BTC being traded around this time, compared to a year ago ?
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Noticeably lower for January; hugely lower for Nov-Dec '13.

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It peaked during the bubble, basically. The second jump was on much lower volume, interestingly; only a few months after the pop, not too many people were biting on any sort of increase.

You can see where once it topped 1000, a bunch of people (likely mostly miners and early adopters) started immediately cashing out. Hard to blame them; the opportunity for a 1000% return wouldn't come around very often since there has to be someone buying those coins at that price as well. I believe that also corresponds with the time VCs were pouring money into the market, but I'm too lazy to go back and dig it out precisely.
 
jhunter1163 said:
$226 now. Can $150 be far behind?

ETA: If it does go to $150, some of us are going to owe wrs an apology.
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$1000 don't panic, it's still good.
$500 Don't panic, it's still good, it's still good
$224 Don't panic it's still good, it's still good.

The folks that bought at the peak got wiped out. The folks that set it up effectively raped them.
 
Why bother making these posts when you can just copy and paste the posts from 2011? Admittedly the collapse was more severe back then but otherwise, it is just history repeating itself.

Maybe this time the price won't recover. Who knows?
 
jhunter1163 said:
$204. Is there any hint as to why it's crashing again?
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It's not crashing, it's just a very cyclical "currency" :rolleyes:

IMO the value of Bitcoin is largely driven by demand for Bitcoin (given how relatively few are being mined these days). As I see it the demand is driven by a number of factors:

  • People using Bitcoin as a way to shelter money from their own failing currencies/economies. IMO we saw that with the Russians with money in Cyprus
  • Speculators who have no particular need or use for Bitcoin but see it as a way to get a return
  • The curious who also have no need for Bitcoin but just want to have some. Would it be too stereotypical to suggest that some of these are hipsters ?
  • People who use Bitcoin because it's a convenient way to effect payment
  • People who use Bitcoin to hide their activities from the authorities

I'm sure there are many, many others but bear with me.

At the moment there don't seem to be any economic crises to drive demand for Bitcoin. Speculators have had their fingers burned and whilst there may be some buying at these prices, the casual speculator who really provided the froth at the top of the market, has been scared off not. The merely curious have had their curiosity sated - and in some cases their fingers burned. The big commercial payers like Apple are moving in to the payments market which only leaves the final category currently propping up the value of Bitcoin.

Drug dealers, child pornographers and the terminally paranoid do form a market but not a very large one so Bitcoin will retain some value - I'm just not sure how much.
 
There it is for you Belz, 150

Boom, as predicted, $150 for ****coin.

Edited by jhunter1163: 
Edited for Rule 10 breach. Do not swear in your posts.


Sorry about that, I guess I thought the software would bleep it anyway.
 

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Incredible. You really think it's a hit ?

As expected you consider "something will happen, at some point, somewhere" to be a useful prediction.

As long as it hits 150 at any point on any exchange for any amount of time you are correct. :rolleyes:
 
Belz... said:
Incredible. You really think it's a hit ?

As expected you consider "something will happen, at some point, somewhere" to be a useful prediction.

As long as it hits 150 at any point on any exchange for any amount of time you are correct. :rolleyes:
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Yep, lump it. Go back to the original post, it hit my target range then and you bitched about it not getting to $150 but here it is. Prediction completely correct. Lump it.
 
We've been through this and I have no desire to get back to that. Apparently it matters so much to you that you came back to this thread after a year to yap the same thing all over again.
 
wrs said:
Boom, as predicted, $150 for ****coin.
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It looks like you jumped the gun again. The price came ever so close at $152.40 before rising again. So your prediction is yet to come to pass.

BTW didn't you say something about $150 being the long term price of BTC? We will have quite a wait before we can pass judgement on that prediction.
 
wrs said:
Boom, as predicted, $150 for ****coin.
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Oh for cryin' out loud. Let's have a prediction review from Dec 2013:

wrs said:
Belz, I can't put a time on (bitcoin dropping to $150). Price and time should be related so it should drop as fast as it rose but that isn't a certainty. It should happen by the end of the year but that isn't a prediction. Look at the chart of silver in 1980 and in 2011. Silver is basically back now to where it ran from in 2011 but it's more real and a more liquid market than bitcoin.
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Missed by about a month; right general idea, but the date's too far away to count as a hit.

wrs said:
I already did. 500 to 150 by the end of the month. Can't do better than that. I think this is a dead cat bounce on declining volume. It was a near perfect .62 retrace of the 666 point drop from 1242 t0 576. I guess it could still try to move higher but if it's A-B-C down, then we are about to do C and C=A plenty of times so that would be another 666 from around 1000 to 450 or less. Guess we will see if the bitbulls can roll the rock back up the hill or if it rolls back down on them.
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Missed.

psionl0 said:
Bitcoin prices will probably follow a similar path to what they did during the Cyprus crisis. After the current kerfuffle settles down, the price will probability hover around the $800 mark for a few weeks before taking off again. It is not unreasonable to suppose that prices would hit the $2000 mark sometime before June next year. Of course, the volatility being what it is, it's anybody's guess what the actual price will be in June.
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Missed.

psionl0 said:
You can regard this prophecy to be a failure if the price doesn't exceed $1200 some time during the next 6 months, there is no recovery phase, the price hits the $1200 mark but then falls back and for most of the 6 months it doesn't exceed $1000 or if the price has dropped below $500 in June.
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Missed and moot (though a miss), since it was dependent on a hit.

remirol said:
Anyone purchasing Bitcoin right now without the intent of immediately getting out on short-term gains is an idiot, plain and simple. Even the ones who think they'll buy at $1000 and sell at $1100 are fools. I will admit that this current influx of idiots has definitely 'saved' the original idiots who bought in at $200, but this pattern is historically classic and it's just a matter of guessing when the crash comes now, and where Bitcoin will land when it stops.
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Hard to evaluate. Hit in the sense that it hasn't come near $1000, but it can't be marked as a full hit until Bitcoin either pancakes or floats somewhere.

mhaze said:
Okay, here's my prediction...all the bitnegs hanging on the trend line weight it down, but they are offset by the bitpositives full of hot air that buoy the chart line back up.

I'll give you a prediction, $5000 by 2015. Sorry I don't have the magic skills to forecast tomorrow. By the way I view the 5k as a very conservative prediction....
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Embarrassing failure. mhaze is surely reading this thread right now, so I'd like to take this opportunity to smug at him for being so utterly, totally wrong about everything. If you'd like me to manage your money for you, mhaze, I charge $200/hr -- that'll be cheap compared to what you're losing.

Any predictions I didn't include in here? I only hit the highlights, and I don't think Belz made a prediction. jhunter is already paying off his most recent one.
 
remirol said:
Oh for cryin' out loud. Let's have a prediction review from Dec 2013:



Missed by about a month; right general idea, but the date's too far away to count as a hit.

wrs said:
I already did. 500 to 150 by the end of the month. Can't do better than that. I think this is a dead cat bounce on declining volume. It was a near perfect .62 retrace of the 666 point drop from 1242 t0 576. I guess it could still try to move higher but if it's A-B-C down, then we are about to do C and C=A plenty of times so that would be another 666 from around 1000 to 450 or less. Guess we will see if the bitbulls can roll the rock back up the hill or if it rolls back down on them.
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remirol said:
Missed.
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The second prediction here for 500 to 150 as a range was correct. Bitcoin hit $385 just a few days later.

Here was the real prediction where I said 500 or less by the end of the month with 150 as the low end of the range.

Well now we have the 150 but it took a year and a month to get there. Just a matter of time. Belz just likes stirring the pot.
 
remirol said:
Hard to evaluate. Hit in the sense that it hasn't come near $1000, but it can't be marked as a full hit until Bitcoin either pancakes or floats somewhere.
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I'm pretty sure that's not a prediction, but a commentary on the price at the time the post was made. Checking the price history, Bitcoin hit $1120 the same day he made that post, and $1037 the day before. And fell to $947 the day after.
 
remirol said:
Missed.
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See, wrs said "500 to 150", and since the price dropped momentarily to within that range on a single exchange, he counts it as a hit. Of course it went right back up immediately, but it doesn't matter to him.

Any predictions I didn't include in here? I only hit the highlights, and I don't think Belz made a prediction. jhunter is already paying off his most recent one.
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I didn't make any predictions because other than thinking it was a scam and that the early adopters were the creators, who were going to cash out soon (something I admitted I was probably wrong about since) I didn't make assertions about BTC's future.
 
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