Bernie Sanders town hall feat. Elizabeth Warren, Michael Moore

[Egg]

They tried it with Trump, tho, and it seemed to result in something like the "backfire effect".

That's true and there probably was some overlap in the kind of supporters that worked for and some of Bernie's appeal, but only some. I suspect much of the "backfire effect" was among the anti-Obama and anti "political correctness" crowd. I don't see Bernie having quite the same advantage there.

I realize you're probably going to disagree, but I think a whole lot of people who like him are already aware of most of the [broad category of] stuff that could be used against him, and I also wonder if what works against an "establishment" candidate might have the opposite effect against an anti-establishment one.

Well, it would have been interesting to see the approach to two apparently anti-establishment candidates. Would it be who's more anti-establishment (or maybe whose anti-establishment position is actually anti-American) and fighting that battle? Would it have been about catching the stability voters? Probably both approaches aimed specifically at different groups. Neither sits well with the "atheist commie" candidate (and Bernie could be painted as more establishment to some groups, having been in politics for some time).

Maybe the "get money out of politics" message might have given Bernie a decent hill to fight from - I don't think Trump's self-funding claims during the primaries could have carried over. But I think you need a pretty aware electorate for that approach to be strong enough to overcome the personal attacks.

 

[kellyb]

I suspect much of the "backfire effect" was among the anti-Obama and anti "political correctness" crowd. I don't see Bernie having quite the same advantage there.

Well, yeah, it would be a different demographic, for sure, but the effect might be the same or similar.

Neither sits well with the "atheist commie" candidate

I'm aware of the polls on how nobody wants to vote for an atheist, but I'm not entirely sure they'd apply to most potential Sanders voters, especially since he does the whole "I'm Jewish, and spiritual not religious" thing.

"Obama is a Muslim" had a sort of intuitive appeal to the wingnuts who really believe there's some Islamic plot to Sharia-ify the US that I think the atheist (used as a slur) claim lacks, and the sort of people who wig out over communism wouldn't ever vote for a non-republican/libertarian/etc, anyway, so they don't matter.

and Bernie could be painted as more establishment to some groups, having been in politics for some time

Yeah, but the actual "BernieBro" types aren't exactly the most high-info demographic, and even they could see that Sanders really is fairly anti-establishment, but just has the record to prove it.

Maybe the "get money out of politics" message might have given Bernie a decent hill to fight from - I don't think Trump's self-funding claims during the primaries could have carried over. But I think you need a pretty aware electorate for that approach to be strong enough to overcome the personal attacks.

Half of Sanders' appeal is his raw, unscripted, unpolished charisma. Which, in an opposite-world sort of way, is similar to Trump's appeal with a lot of people. With that seems to come a sort of immunity to personal attacks.

 

[Delvo]

Half of Sanders' appeal is his raw, unscripted, unpolished charisma. Which, in an opposite-world sort of way, is similar to Trump's appeal with a lot of people.

There's nothing opposite about it. Having clear goals and standing your ground for them when you're challenged is viewed positively all around, regardless of political spectrum coordinates. As dumb as Trump is, the fact that he's one of only a handful of politicians who seem to get that only demonstrates how badly brainwashed the rest must be by the myth to the contrary, wherever it managed to come from. Remember that speech Trump did a few weeks ago that was supposed to be supporting a local Republican candidate but was, of course, all about Trump: he actually did a little one-man skit mocking Standard Robotic Politician Behavior. The crowd loved it. It couldn't have been a plainer, more obvious message right in front of all other politicians' and political consultants' faces, showing even his own opponents what they need to do. And still they don't listen or pay attention to how things really work. Instead they wring their hands over how devastating it would be to get "attacked" with opportunities to put their case in the public's attention again and again.

 

[Egg]

Well, yeah, it would be a different demographic, for sure, but the effect might be the same or similar.

...

Half of Sanders' appeal is his raw, unscripted, unpolished charisma. Which, in an opposite-world sort of way, is similar to Trump's appeal with a lot of people. With that seems to come a sort of immunity to personal attacks.

I agree that Trump not sounding like other politicians was a big appeal for many, but I don't see that as the mechanic for the "backfire effect". That was more about upsetting liberals. When the liberals in the media attacked Trump for racism and mocking the disabled, this was seen as proof that it was working and encouraged support.

I'm not sure what an equivalent mechanic to that would look like in Bernie's case. Those who were drawn to his message aren't generally so much the vindictive types.

 

[kellyb]

I agree that Trump not sounding like other politicians was a big appeal for many, but I don't see that as the mechanic for the "backfire effect".

It wasn't the mechanism. The mechanism was people (liberals, Meagan Kelly, etc) pointing out how bad he sucked, and that made his supporters decide that they LIKED how he sucked.

I'm not sure what an equivalent mechanic to that would look like in Bernie's case. Those who were drawn to his message aren't generally so much the vindictive types.

It would be people going "Well, socialism is sounding pretty good nowadays, anyway" or "I'm tired of these religious phonies, anyhow" and "What the Reagan regime did in Latin America during those years really was criminal" in Bernie's case when attacked as a communist/atheist/Sandinista-supporter etc.

 

[PhantomWolf]

It would be people going "Well, socialism is sounding pretty good nowadays, anyway" or "I'm tired of these religious phonies, anyhow" and "What the Reagan regime did in Latin America during those years really was criminal" in Bernie's case when attacked as a communist/atheist/Sandinista-supporter etc.

wow you really are deluding yourself. You were just arguing that these same people hated obamacare because they hate Government interference, and yet with the other side of your mouth you are arguing that they'd fall in love with it.

Bernie didn't have the anywhere near the numbers to beat Clinton, and no, not all of those that voted for Clinton would have switched to him. We saw that under Obama and they went into the conference on friendly terms with Hillary really pushing for her voters and supporters to switch to Obama.

The fact is that Hillary drew voters from the middle and liberal right, voters that would never vote for an Atheistic Commie. There are still a lot of people that believe better dead than Red, and you can bet that they'd have gone rather Trump than Red.

You can't have it both way. You can't claim that Americans turned off Obamacare because of their detest for Government interference, but claim that they would flock to Bernie for supporting an even increased dosage of the same.

 

[kellyb]

You were just arguing that these same people hated obamacare because they hate Government interference, and yet with the other side of your mouth you are arguing that they'd fall in love with it.

Not the same people.
Nobody who hates "liberals" and is obsessed with "small government" is going to vote for a non-republican.

 

[kellyb]

Thinking on the Obamacare thing some more, do you think there were people who both voted for Obama and liked his healthcare plan that he campaigned on, who were swayed to dislike it as a result of the Republican attack on it?

 

[PhantomWolf]

Not the same people.
Nobody who hates "liberals" and is obsessed with "small government" is going to vote for a non-republican.

You seem to think that it was only Republicans that disliked Obamacare, yet among Independents, the people that you need to win an election, it's unfavorable rating hovered in the 50% region, peaking at 59% in June, 2014.

You can't have it both ways. If people dislike Obamacare for interference, then even more people would dislike Sanderscare FOR THE SAME REASON, only more.

If people don't like something, increasing the dosage turns more people off it, it doesn't suddenly make them like it.

 

[PhantomWolf]

Thinking on the Obamacare thing some more, do you think there were people who both voted for Obama and liked his healthcare plan that he campaigned on, who were swayed to dislike it as a result of the Republican attack on it?

Out of those that didn't like it....

I'd say that most of the Republicans who didn't like it believed the Republican attacks.

Most of the Democrats that didn't like it thought it didn't go far enough

But, most of the Independents that didn't like it also believed the attacks.

 

[Egg]

It wasn't the mechanism. The mechanism was people (liberals, Meagan Kelly, etc) pointing out how bad he sucked, and that made his supporters decide that they LIKED how he sucked.

It would be people going "Well, socialism is sounding pretty good nowadays, anyway" or "I'm tired of these religious phonies, anyhow" and "What the Reagan regime did in Latin America during those years really was criminal" in Bernie's case when attacked as a communist/atheist/Sandinista-supporter etc.

Admittedly, my view of how the backfire effect worked is based on speculation and not on data, but there would surely be a reason why Trump's supporters (and his rating rose, so also people who hadn't been supporters) would just like how he sucked?

Without data points to see what kind of attacks boosted his support, I can't think of a better explanation than what we saw on social media and discussion boards: "snowflakes" and "liberal tears".

 

[kellyb]

You seem to think that it was only Republicans that disliked Obamacare, yet among Independents, the people that you need to win an election, it's unfavorable rating hovered in the 50% region

And what was it at over time, and among those who voted for Obama?

 

[kellyb]

Admittedly, my view of how the backfire effect worked is based on speculation and not on data, but there would surely be a reason why Trump's supporters (and his rating rose, so also people who hadn't been supporters) would just like how he sucked?

Without data points to see what kind of attacks boosted his support, I can't think of a better explanation than what we saw on social media and discussion boards: "snowflakes" and "liberal tears".

Yeah, but when you look at their response to the "grab them by the ___" comment, and their "locker room talk" dismissal, it sounds like conspiracy theorists responding to contradictory evidence with " OF COURSE THAT'S WHAT 'THEY' WOULD SAY!", you know?

 

[Egg]

Yeah, but when you look at their response to the "grab them by the ___" comment, and their "locker room talk" dismissal, it sounds like conspiracy theorists responding to contradictory evidence with " OF COURSE THAT'S WHAT 'THEY' WOULD SAY!", you know?

The core of his base, yes - prepared to deny, defend, dismiss the importance, whatever. I'd agree that the Bernie effect wasn't so far away from that for a fair few of his supporters, but I think that's a different phenomenon going on - more akin to cults, authoritarian admiration and standing by a leader - as you say, similar reactions to conspiracy theorists. It'll keep supporters through rough patches, but it doesn't grow a base and neither Trump nor Bernie had the numbers of that type of core supporter to carry them through the election on their own.

Trump's favorable polling actually took quite a hit after that tape came out, so there wasn't any noticeable backfire on that incident. If I recall, most of the backfire effect was seen early on in the campaign and in the primaries and was generally more a reaction to personal attacks than scandals.

 

[Aridas]

Out of those that didn't like it....

I'd say that most of the Republicans who didn't like it believed the Republican attacks.

Most of the Democrats that didn't like it thought it didn't go far enough

But, most of the Independents that didn't like it also believed the attacks.

And what was it at over time, and among those who voted for Obama?

Just to chip in as an Obama voter for a moment... I've never actually liked Obamacare. Both the Democrats and Republicans agreed that it was deeply flawed from the start, after all, and it's pretty hard to actually like programs that everyone admits are deeply flawed for me. I consider it a step up from what we had, sure, but, honestly, I probably would have been notably happier had the energy and resources that were focused on it were used to deal with various infrastructure issues that our country is dealing with, rather than implementing an admittedly deeply flawed program.

 

[Venom]

Just to chip in as an Obama voter for a moment... I've never actually liked Obamacare. Both the Democrats and Republicans agreed that it was deeply flawed from the start, after all, and it's pretty hard to actually like programs that everyone admits are deeply flawed for me. I consider it a step up from what we had, sure, but, honestly, I probably would have been notably happier had the energy and resources that were focused on it were used to deal with various infrastructure issues that our country is dealing with, rather than implementing an admittedly deeply flawed program.

I hate that Obama dropped the public option. I mean he had to know at that point that anything he tried to do would be seen, or at least portrayed, by the Republicans in Congress as a slippery slope towards TOTAL GOVERMENT CONTROL

 

[kellyb]

I hate that Obama dropped the public option. I mean he had to know at that point that anything he tried to do would be seen, or at least portrayed, by the Republicans in Congress as a slippery slope towards TOTAL GOVERMENT CONTROL

Same. I was essentially a-political before 2008 (I knew I hated Bush and Republicans in general, but was kinda "meh" about the Democrats) and I might not have even voted for Obama if I'd known he wasn't serious about the public option and just wanted to pass the the Massachusetts version of (excuse for) "UHC".

Interestingly, the R attacks on Obamacare as a "massive government takeover of healthcare" made me warm up to the ACA, because it gave me so many opportunities to argue in favor of single payer, an actual government takeover of healthcare, which is exactly what we need.

 

[kellyb]

I consider it a step up from what we had, sure, but, honestly, I probably would have been notably happier had the energy and resources that were focused on it were used to deal with various infrastructure issues that our country is dealing with, rather than implementing an admittedly deeply flawed program.

The worst thing about 2009-2010 from my perspective was foreseeing the 2010 midterm slaughter coming as a result of voter enthusiasm dying on the left. Obama was given a mandate, and gave us the Heritage Foundations's healthcare plan and Wall Street running the treasury dept.

The R's were pretty obviously ramping up their base's voter enthusiasm with the Obama-is-a-Nazi-socialist-Muslim-communist-fascist-Kenyan stuff, and we on the left were being called emoprogs by the "socially liberal, economically conservative" centrists, and promised that Obama was simply playing 11 dimensional chess.

 

[quadraginta]

Thinking on the Obamacare thing some more, do you think there were people who both voted for Obama and liked his healthcare plan that he campaigned on, who were swayed to dislike it as a result of the Republican attack on it?

Sure. That's why, even to this day, there are people who like the ACA but hate Obamacare.

 

[kellyb]

Sure. That's why, even to this day, there are people who like the ACA but hate Obamacare.

Is that reversed from how you meant to put it, since we were talking about people who "voted for Obama and liked his healthcare plan"?

Wouldn't they like Obamacare and hate the ACA?