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Merged Australian Politics / Australian election

arthwollipot said:
Unfortunately the empty ideologue seems rather popular right now.
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I’m not so sure. I think most of the electorate takes the word of the CSIRO rather than Dutton, and telling young people that housing is not a problem because he bought a house decades ago is not going to win votes.
 
lionking said:
I’m not so sure. I think most of the electorate takes the word of the CSIRO rather than Dutton, and telling young people that housing is not a problem because he bought a house decades ago is not going to win votes.
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I'm hoping that my poor track record for predicting the results of elections is maintained this year.
 
lionking said:
The more Dutton speaks the more he becomes exposed as an empty ideologue.
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It really doesn't matter what they say. For the average voter who isn't bound by party loyalty, if their perception is that they are worse off than they were before the last election then they believe that the incumbent government has to be punished - even if they are aware that the opposition would be even worse for them (not that the average voter thinks that deeply).
 
Dabop said:
And a very dangerous one....
(nothing like an ex (crooked) cop running as PM...

His time as the 'security minister' for the libs should have exposed him as the power hungry clown he is...
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Dutton could end up proving that Australian voters are as stupid as American voters.
 
psionl0 said:
Dutton could end up proving that Australian voters are as stupid as American voters.
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Yes. We will have no right to continuing to laugh at the US.

I still think that Labor, the Greens and a handful of Teals will form a minority government.
 
I predict minor parties will see a massive increase in votes and probably seats at the next election. Big losers, the Liberals. Labor may lose votes and seats, but not sure about that.
 
rjh01 said:
I predict minor parties will see a massive increase in votes and probably seats at the next election. Big losers, the Liberals. Labor may lose votes and seats, but not sure about that.
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The polls are not backing you.

Coalition lead over ALP tightens in mid-January: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% - Roy Morgan Research

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with two-party preferred vote narrowing from last week: L-NP 51.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
www.roymorgan.com www.roymorgan.com

The betting markets are even more decisive with the coalition forming government quoted at $1.53, Labor at $2.50 .
At this stage, the shortest price is on Labor forming a minority government at $2.63 compared with $2.90 for a coalition majority government or $2.80 for a coalition minority government. (Nobody seriously thinks that Labor will form a majority government. The quoted price is $15.00).
 
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psionl0 said:
The polls are not backing you.

Coalition lead over ALP tightens in mid-January: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% - Roy Morgan Research

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with two-party preferred vote narrowing from last week: L-NP 51.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.
www.roymorgan.com www.roymorgan.com
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The gap is tightening though, and in any case it isn’t the overall polling that counts, but where it falls by electorate. Dutton would have to win a record number of extra seats to get up, and he is no Hawke. Plus his increasing Trumpian persona will not win votes.
 
The other thing which will happen is interest rate cuts. Looking at the latest bank projections, inflation will be close to 2% in months, which should lock in 3 rate cuts this year. It might only add 1% to Labor’s polling, but in a close election, that could be significant.
 
lionking said:
The gap is tightening though, and in any case it isn’t the overall polling that counts, but where it falls by electorate. Dutton would have to win a record number of extra seats to get up, and he is no Hawke. Plus his increasing Trumpian persona will not win votes.
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It's getting some ironic laughs though. But that won't get him an election win.
 
"Clive Palmer has lost his High Court bid to re-register the United Australia Party ahead of this year's federal election.

"The United Australia Party was voluntarily deregistered after the last federal election, and under the law cannot re-register within the same electoral cycle.
"The High Court ruled the law is valid and ordered the plaintiffs to pay the costs of the case."

www.abc.net.au

Clive Palmer loses bid to re-register United Australia Party

Clive Palmer has lost his High Court bid to re-register the United Australia Party for this year's federal election, meaning the party's candidates will not be identified with the UAP on ballot papers for the House of Representatives and the Senate.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
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