2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

[Norman Alexander]

"Federal-state partnership to promote law and order in St Louis"

U.S. Senator Eric Schmitt has announced a “historic FBI investment to combat violent crime in St. Louis.”

On Wednesday morning, Schmitt’s office put out a press release announcing that St. Louis will receive one of the largest per capita infusions of full-time agents and intel personnel in the nation. The release said that the announcement comes following the Senator’s coordination with FBI Director Kash Patel, Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.

“Today marks the beginning of a new era of federal-state partnership to promote law and order in St. Louis. This permanent investment in St. Louis by the FBI will be coupled with increased multilateral joint agency operations, increasing overall crime fighting capacity and building upon the important work being done on the state level to restore public safety. I want to thank Director Patel for engaging closely with me from the moment I made this request. His vision of getting agents out of politics and into the field is helping to restore law and order across the country. This investment in St. Louis will be felt for years to come,” said Senator Schmitt.

Interesting times.

Know what might help reduce crime a LOT, Schmiddy?

Get Trump to resign. After all, he's a 34-count felon but he's still in charge of a country.

 

[Segnosaur]

It's unclear why you think this stops at Texas and those five seats.

It is very possible that other red states (such as Florida) will follow the lead of Texas.

But the problem for the republicans is that they have been gerrymandering for decades, and whatever advantage they have had for it has already been "baked in". (And gerrymandering isn't a magical "win seat out of nowhere"... You have to take some of your own support and attach it to a "swing district", but if you push things too far you could turn "one republican district, one swing district" into 2 swing districts". Rather than 2 republican districts.)

So yes, republicans may get another few seats by gerrymandering Florida in addition to texas, possibly one or 2 smaller red states as well, but I doubt they will "find" enough seats to make up for the seats they would be expected to lose because of the trend of "presidents party loses seats at midterms".

 

[shemp]

"Federal-state partnership to promote law and order in St Louis"



Interesting times.

I hope you'll be able to write to us from Alligator Alcatraz.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I hope you'll be able to write to us from Alligator Alcatraz.

Don't be silly. They're building a lot more of those, I'm sure they'll send me to one closer to save on transport costs. Of course I live in a ethnically-mixed neighborhood so I might not survive the initial round-up depending on whether they use explosives first. It's not all gloomy though: the roads here are in such bad shape you could drive tanks all over them without adding any more damage!

 

[The Don]

It is very possible that other red states (such as Florida) will follow the lead of Texas.

But the problem for the republicans is that they have been gerrymandering for decades, and whatever advantage they have had for it has already been "baked in". (And gerrymandering isn't a magical "win seat out of nowhere"... You have to take some of your own support and attach it to a "swing district", but if you push things too far you could turn "one republican district, one swing district" into 2 swing districts". Rather than 2 republican districts.)

So yes, republicans may get another few seats by gerrymandering Florida in addition to texas, possibly one or 2 smaller red states as well, but I doubt they will "find" enough seats to make up for the seats they would be expected to lose because of the trend of "presidents party loses seats at midterms".

They're getting far more brazen with the gerrymandering. Expect 29 GOP districts each with 10,000 electors and a single Democrat district with hundreds of thousands.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

They're getting far more brazen with the gerrymandering. Expect 29 GOP districts each with 10,000 electors and a single Democrat district with hundreds of thousands.

Like pre direct rule Derry.

 

[Brainster]

It's unclear why you think this stops at Texas and those five seats.

How do you create five new Republican seats in Texas? The only way you can do it is by pulling a few Republican voters from each district that already has a GOP representative and replacing them with Democrats. This may result in them picking up a few seats, but only if things go really well for them. If things don't go well, it means they lose more seats than they would otherwise.

 

[johnny karate]

How do you create five new Republican seats in Texas? The only way you can do it is by pulling a few Republican voters from each district that already has a GOP representative and replacing them with Democrats. This may result in them picking up a few seats, but only if things go really well for them. If things don't go well, it means they lose more seats than they would otherwise.

I think you’re failing to see the bigger picture. This is an opening salvo for Republicans to see how much they can get away with in an effort to steal elections.

The endgame is forever Republican rule, not five seats in Texas.

 

[azazal]

I think you’re failing to see the bigger picture. This is an opening salvo for Republicans to see how much they can get away with in an effort to steal elections.

The endgame is forever Republican rule, not five seats in Texas.

I read an article earlier in the week, I'll see if I can find it again to link. The gist was that several of the redrawn districts in Texas would cover Latinos that went for Trump in 2024 but could very easily go against GOP in 2026 and result in a net loss of for the GOP.

Personally, given all the crap Trump has managed to come out on top of, I give that a 50/50 chance at best.

 

[Brainster]

I think you’re failing to see the bigger picture. This is an opening salvo for Republicans to see how much they can get away with in an effort to steal elections.

The endgame is forever Republican rule, not five seats in Texas.

Then why are they moving heaven and hell to get those five seats? These are not the actions of people who believe they are going to win the election easily, nor are they the actions of someone planning a dictatorship. They are the actions of people trying to avoid losing, because they know losing actually has negative consequences for them.

 

[Brainster]

I read an article earlier in the week, I'll see if I can find it again to link. The gist was that several of the redrawn districts in Texas would cover Latinos that went for Trump in 2024 but could very easily go against GOP in 2026 and result in a net loss of for the GOP.

This. In 2020 that the Democrats thought they'd locked up the youth vote permanently. I expect the recent Latino shift to the GOP to be equally transitory.

 

[Resume]

Mid-terms . . . Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

 

[johnny karate]

I read an article earlier in the week, I'll see if I can find it again to link. The gist was that several of the redrawn districts in Texas would cover Latinos that went for Trump in 2024 but could very easily go against GOP in 2026 and result in a net loss of for the GOP.

Personally, given all the crap Trump has managed to come out on top of, I give that a 50/50 chance at best.

I acknowledge it might not work, but that doesn’t mean the endgame isn’t exactly what I said it is.

 

[johnny karate]

Then why are they moving heaven and hell to get those five seats? These are not the actions of people who believe they are going to win the election easily, nor are they the actions of someone planning a dictatorship. They are the actions of people trying to avoid losing, because they know losing actually has negative consequences for them.

They’re trying hard because the first attempt to subvert elections is the heaviest lift.

Again, acknowledging it might not work. But just because Republicans are generally stupid and incompetent doesn’t mean they aren’t trying for one-party rule.

 

[shemp]

Mid-terms . . . Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

Mid-terms? We don't need no stinkin' mid-terms!

 

[Norman Alexander]

They're getting far more brazen with the gerrymandering. Expect 29 GOP districts each with 10,000 electors and a single Democrat district with hundreds of thousands.

By ignoring any maps, which the GOP are doing, there's no limit to how many voting districts can be created or how they look geographically.

So the Dems can create millions of electoral districts, with each one to be a single blue household. No problem getting to a polling booth for them, just walk to the dining room and deposit your paper ballot (Donny loves paper ballots!) in the family teapot. And counting the votes and phoning them in can be grandma's job.

Meanwhile, all the red households will be rounded up into one district that looks like the Amazon and its tributaries across the state. The one polling booth for them can be at the far end, up a dirt walking track in a barn. No mail-ins; you need to go there in person, on the day. And no food or drink in the queues either!

Yes, it's getting that ridiculous. But Gavin Newsom is showing that reflecting the GOP back on itself is powerful.

 

[Segnosaur]

I read an article earlier in the week, I'll see if I can find it again to link. The gist was that several of the redrawn districts in Texas would cover Latinos that went for Trump in 2024 but could very easily go against GOP in 2026 and result in a net loss of for the GOP.

From what I have heard, the redrawn districts will have pretty comfortable margins, so that even if the republicans lose the "latinos for Trump" voters, they will still likely win the new districts.

 

[Segnosaur]

They’re trying hard because the first attempt to subvert elections is the heaviest lift.

Again, acknowledging it might not work. But just because Republicans are generally stupid and incompetent doesn’t mean they aren’t trying for one-party rule.

Yes republicans are generally stupid and incompetent, when it comes to things like running the country, understanding science, etc. However, there is one thing they are good at, and that is manipulating/corrupting the voting system in order to gain/maintain political power. They are like the proverbial "Idiot savants" in that way.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

By ignoring any maps, which the GOP are doing, there's no limit to how many voting districts can be created or how they look geographically.

So the Dems can create millions of electoral districts, with each one to be a single blue household. No problem getting to a polling booth for them, just walk to the dining room and deposit your paper ballot (Donny loves paper ballots!) in the family teapot. And counting the votes and phoning them in can be grandma's job.

Meanwhile, all the red households will be rounded up into one district that looks like the Amazon and its tributaries across the state. The one polling booth for them can be at the far end, up a dirt walking track in a barn. No mail-ins; you need to go there in person, on the day. And no food or drink in the queues either!

Yes, it's getting that ridiculous. But Gavin Newsom is showing that reflecting the GOP back on itself is powerful.

You misunderstand. If a Democratic state does that it is a massive overstep of their authority, the state is in the hands of corrupt mismanagers and therefore the National Guard/Army needs to be sent in to 'correct' this.

 

[Brainster]

From what I have heard, the redrawn districts will have pretty comfortable margins, so that even if the republicans lose the "latinos for Trump" voters, they will still likely win the new districts.

Really? Then why didn't they draw the maps that way in 2020?