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2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

2026 Mid-Term Election Outcome: US Congress

  • Republicans retain control of House and Senate

    Votes: 6 27.3%
  • Republican House, Democrat Senate

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • Democrat House, Republican Senate

    Votes: 10 45.5%
  • Democrat House and Senate

    Votes: 3 13.6%
  • On Planet X, Greens take house and senate

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Total voters
    22
IMO the US population will be so gaslit and the electoral process so skewed in the GOP controlled states that the Republicans will increase their majorities in both houses.

Trump's popularity will be just under 50% as people get used to the deportations and economic chaos and all problems will in any case bbe blamed on Biden and the Democrats.
I think Trump will be wildly boring and the social media will lose interest. Democrats finally master social media and get the house. But Susan Collins is still very concerned and the rest of the GOP senators will be clutching their pearls at awful things happening. But somehow hold on by one seat and then the VP to vote when Susan Collins is still concerned. She wins Maine by 2%. Less than 2020.
 
If past history is any guide, the Democrats should take the House, but the Senate looks unlikely. The Republicans are only defending one seat in a state won by Harris (Maine), while the Democrats have two seats up in states where Trump won (Georgia and Michigan). Even if the Democrats can defend the latter states, win Maine and North Carolina and Ohio, the GOP will still hold 50 seats and have the tie-breaker in Vance.
 
I still think the way things are going Democrats are likely to win the House.

But if Trump gets some sort of miraculous foreign policy breakthrough that might change.
 
If a free and fair election were held in 2024, TACO wouldn't have won a single state with more than eleven electoral college votes. Given that and how far down the nazism pipeline the country has subsequently slid, any Democrat being elected might be a miracle.
 
Ok, I voted: Republicans retain control. Not because I think that'll be the will of the voters, but because of shenanigans. Voter suppression will be rampant, and affect purple states with gerrymandered Republican legislatures. And some of those legislatures will vote to overturn results they don't like, and Trumpist courts will go along with it. It's also not unlikely that Republicans in the house will simply refuse to seat new electees they don't like, on various specious grounds.
Basically, I think we're totally ◊◊◊◊◊◊.
Bump! Gerrymandering under way; R's set to steal five seats in Texas with Florida soon to follow. Trump working on redoing the "fraudulent" 2020 census. And there's still almost 15 months to the election.
 
In the last five midterms, the President's party has lost seats in the House, with the losses ranging from 9 seats in 2022 to 63 seats in 2010 and the average loss being 31 seats.
 
In the last five midterms, the President's party has lost seats in the House, with the losses ranging from 9 seats in 2022 to 63 seats in 2010 and the average loss being 31 seats.
This time rampant gerrymandering from the GOP will attempt to buck that trend. I expect them to lose the popular vote by a considerable margin but still have a majority in the House.

I expect them to lose the popular vote in some red/purple states and still have a significant majority of seats in those states.
 
This time rampant gerrymandering from the GOP will attempt to buck that trend. I expect them to lose the popular vote by a considerable margin but still have a majority in the House.

I expect them to lose the popular vote in some red/purple states and still have a significant majority of seats in those states.
Not just gerrymandering, there's more to come. Trump is talking about issuing an executive order to outlaw mail voting and voting machines. No, he has no authority to do that, but as always, who's going to stop him? It's not unlikely R's in Congress will push through a bill for him to sign doing the same thing. That way while it's being fought in the courts, R's can just declare elections in blue states illegal and refuse to seat the winners. Except their winners, of course.
Disenfranchisement will of course proceed apace.
Note that none of this is just Trump's doing. The Republican Party has been trying to destroy democracy for several decades.
 
Not just gerrymandering, there's more to come. Trump is talking about issuing an executive order to outlaw mail voting and voting machines. No, he has no authority to do that, but as always, who's going to stop him? It's not unlikely R's in Congress will push through a bill for him to sign doing the same thing. That way while it's being fought in the courts, R's can just declare elections in blue states illegal and refuse to seat the winners. Except their winners, of course.
Disenfranchisement will of course proceed apace.
Note that none of this is just Trump's doing. The Republican Party has been trying to destroy democracy for several decades.
Yeah, there's gonna be all sorts of nonsense and shenanigans. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump declares martial law before the midterms if he doesn't think the other cheating efforts are gonna yield desired results.
 
Bump! Gerrymandering under way; R's set to steal five seats in Texas with Florida soon to follow. Trump working on redoing the "fraudulent" 2020 census. And there's still almost 15 months to the election.
Yes, Texas will probably be able to gerrymander Texas to get a few more seats. (Assuming there isn't some successful court challenge, but I figure the chance of that happening is minimal). I wouldn't be surprised if Florida follows suit. (And California has promised its own gerrymandering in response, but given the way California runs elections it probably won't be done in time for the 2026 mid terms.)

So worst case scenario will probably come true... a dozen or so more republican seats due to gerrymandering and no new democratic seats.

But even if Republicans manage to squeeze out 10 or 12 more congressional seats, as another poster pointed out the average number of seats lost by a party that holds the white house is 31, and Trump is extremely unpopular (and that's before any downturn from his policies have full impact. The gerrymandering might limit the number of seats the Democrats can pick up, but i don't think it will be enough to allow the republicans to hold the house.
 
Yeah, there's gonna be all sorts of nonsense and shenanigans. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump declares martial law before the midterms if he doesn't think the other cheating efforts are gonna yield desired results.
Perhaps he'll have his "law enforcement" goon squads occupy several major cities during the election, and to "fight crime" the number of polling places will have to be reduced. Or eliminated.
 
Perhaps he'll have his "law enforcement" goon squads occupy several major cities during the election, and to "fight crime" the number of polling places will have to be reduced. Or eliminated.
Or ICE could turn up at polling places to pick up 'illegals' so they can't vote.
 
Perhaps he'll have his "law enforcement" goon squads occupy several major cities during the election, and to "fight crime" the number of polling places will have to be reduced. Or eliminated.
I'm sure the occupation of DC is a trial run to see what they can get away with.

Remember the good ole days when cultists claimed this sort of ◊◊◊◊ was crazy talk and hyperbole?
 
This time rampant gerrymandering from the GOP will attempt to buck that trend. I expect them to lose the popular vote by a considerable margin but still have a majority in the House.

I expect them to lose the popular vote in some red/purple states and still have a significant majority of seats in those states.
Let me point something out about the Texas redistricting. In 2020, Texas Republicans presumably gerrymandered the state as much as they could. What has changed since then that they think they can squeeze out another 5 seats with a new gerrymander? The movement of Hispanics towards Trump? I don't buy that yet as a long-term switch. Even if it works, with 5 seats won from the Democrats be enough? Remember on average the party in the White House has lost 31 seats in the House since the 2006 election (I cut it off there because there are oddball circumstances around the 2002 midterms--9/11--and 1998 midterms--Clinton's impeachment--that make them outliers).
 
Let me point something out about the Texas redistricting. In 2020, Texas Republicans presumably gerrymandered the state as much as they could. What has changed since then that they think they can squeeze out another 5 seats with a new gerrymander? The movement of Hispanics towards Trump? I don't buy that yet as a long-term switch. Even if it works, with 5 seats won from the Democrats be enough? Remember on average the party in the White House has lost 31 seats in the House since the 2006 election (I cut it off there because there are oddball circumstances around the 2002 midterms--9/11--and 1998 midterms--Clinton's impeachment--that make them outliers).

It's unclear why you think this stops at Texas and those five seats.
 
I'm sure the occupation of DC is a trial run to see what they can get away with.

Remember the good ole days when cultists claimed this sort of ◊◊◊◊ was crazy talk and hyperbole?
"Federal-state partnership to promote law and order in St Louis"

U.S. Senator Eric Schmitt has announced a “historic FBI investment to combat violent crime in St. Louis.”

On Wednesday morning, Schmitt’s office put out a press release announcing that St. Louis will receive one of the largest per capita infusions of full-time agents and intel personnel in the nation. The release said that the announcement comes following the Senator’s coordination with FBI Director Kash Patel, Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.

“Today marks the beginning of a new era of federal-state partnership to promote law and order in St. Louis. This permanent investment in St. Louis by the FBI will be coupled with increased multilateral joint agency operations, increasing overall crime fighting capacity and building upon the important work being done on the state level to restore public safety. I want to thank Director Patel for engaging closely with me from the moment I made this request. His vision of getting agents out of politics and into the field is helping to restore law and order across the country. This investment in St. Louis will be felt for years to come,” said Senator Schmitt.

Interesting times.
 

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