Merged 2024 Election Thread

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Trausti said:
Could Biden draw even a small fraction of that crowd?
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Maybe not, but then again, Biden doesn't need the constant feedback of adoration to bolster his itty, bitty, teenie-weenie ego from sycophants too dumb to recognize he doesn't give a sheet about them.
 
Trausti said:
Could Biden draw even a small fraction of that crowd?
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The Trump show is a free spectacle. They don't have stand up comics in all those places he chooses to talk to rural people about dropping magnets into water and flushing toilets. It's free low quality entertainment.
 
Any comment on this latest poll which shows that Trump beats Biden in five of six important battleground states?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

I know for a while we heard that polls were not important, but a month or so ago, those saying that became excited when Biden pulled ahead essentially saying that now the real polling has started. So…. What do we make of this now?
 
trumps spent the last week sleep pooping himself while looking like more of a creep than a porn star. not sure what demographic he’s been appealing to lately
 
he’s definitely got his true believers. but if you’re not that idk what he’s done lately to make himself anymore appealing to anyone that isn’t that. this isn’t 2020. when i don’t even see the signs or flags out. 8 years they can’t shut up about him, now i barely hear a peep out of these people.

i think he’s played himself out
 
dirtywick said:
he’s definitely got his true believers. but if you’re not that idk what he’s done lately to make himself anymore appealing to anyone that isn’t that. this isn’t 2020. when i don’t even see the signs or flags out. 8 years they can’t shut up about him, now i barely hear a peep out of these people.

i think he’s played himself out
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What to make of those polls then? They're just completely wrong?
 
You need to look at more than one poll, over what time frame, who was the target market they polled and how were the questions framed for starters.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
You need to look at more than one poll, over what time frame, who was the target market they polled and how were the questions framed for starters.
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This is all very easily discoverable by clicking the links, which I have already done, and read through the questions to find out what is the most important issues for those polled.

Link

You need to look at more than one poll,

Why?

Over what time frame?

Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in five of six states polled by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College from April 28 to May 9, 2024.
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who was the target market they polled

You should look at the methodology section:

How These Polls Were Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this set of polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College:

• We spoke with 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• When the states are joined together, the margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state poll has a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to plus or minus 4.6 points in Georgia. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.
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I don't think there should be much concern that the polls were badly constructed.
 
The point seems to be that what is going to decide things for people is the economy and in particular inflation.

What will absolutely NOT work is anyone making an argument that goes something like this...

"What people don't realize is that the economy is good, ackshually!"
 
From looking at polls posted in this thread, the trend of Trump being at least very competitive in swing states shows that he's likely to be very competitive in those states.

That's insane, but it's what needs to be focused on.
 
angrysoba said:
This is all very easily discoverable by clicking the links, which I have already done, and read through the questions to find out what is the most important issues for those polled.

Link

You need to look at more than one poll,

Why?

Over what time frame?



who was the target market they polled

You should look at the methodology section:



I don't think there should be much concern that the polls were badly constructed.
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From the methodology:

• We spoke with 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.

I’m inclined to comment that if only ~4,000 people out of ~450,000 answered the cellphone cold call survey, they’re mostly the <~1% of people insane enough to be still leaning towards Trump.
 
Orphia Nay said:
From the methodology:

• We spoke with 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.

I’m inclined to comment that if only ~4,000 people out of ~450,000 answered the cellphone cold call survey, they’re mostly the <~1% of people insane enough to be still leaning towards Trump.
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Sure. We can always tell ourselves that there is a baked-in methodological issue with the polls and note to ourselves that nobody we know would vote for Trump. Or whatever else would help us sleep at night.

That said, although I am in Japan, rather than the US, I find that people I know from the US tend to favour Biden, and they often talk about how their families have somewhere gone plummeting down the rabbit hole during Covid, and have all kinds of arguments for why Trump is being persecuted by the mainstream media etc…

I don’t think we should be complacent.
 
angrysoba said:
What to make of those polls then? They're just completely wrong?
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intentionally yes

i see that you’re in japan, but in my neck of the woods, which is like a 60-40 red county where the dems don’t even bother running a candidate, the energy just isn’t there. i don’t see the signs, the flag covered pick up trucks, none of it. so I don’t really buy that he’s more popular than ever.
 
dirtywick said:
in my neck of the woods, which is like a 60-40 red county where the dems don’t even bother running a candidate, the energy just isn’t there. i don’t see the signs, the flag covered pick up trucks, none of it. so I don’t really buy that he’s more popular than ever.
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He isn't. But, in an election (or a how-will-you-vote survey instead of a how-enthusiastic-are-you survey), he doesn't need to be. He just needs them to vote for him at all, regardless of how excited or unexcited they are to do it. It tends to lose more often, but, when your opponent and/or the whole opposing party is doing everything he/they can to push his/their own base away, it can sometimes be enough to not-lose.
 
angrysoba said:
Any comment on this latest poll which shows that Trump beats Biden in five of six important battleground states?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

I know for a while we heard that polls were not important, but a month or so ago, those saying that became excited when Biden pulled ahead essentially saying that now the real polling has started. So…. What do we make of this now?
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What is also notable about those polls is that in those same six states, the Democratic Senate candidates are ahead. Which says to me that the problem is Joe Biden, not the (D) after his name.
 
GlennB said:
“The late, great Hannibal Lecter is a wonderful man,” Trump said at his rally in Wildwood, New Jersey on Saturday after asking the crowd if anyone had seen “Silence of the Lambs.”

wtaf?

Am I missing some kind of in-joke?
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I'm guessing it's to do with his claims about hearing from a foreign doctor saying how all the Latin American mental hospitals have been emptied and their patients moved to the Mexico US border where President Biden will let them in.

Lecter is the only doctor's name he can remember.
 
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