Merged 2024 Election Thread

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angrysoba said:
Any comment on this latest poll which shows that Trump beats Biden in five of six important battleground states?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

I know for a while we heard that polls were not important, but a month or so ago, those saying that became excited when Biden pulled ahead essentially saying that now the real polling has started. So…. What do we make of this now?
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I learned from 2016: don't trust polls but don't underestimate the stupidity of people, either. I can almost understand 2016... kinda...sorta...but 2024? There's no excuse if Trump gets elected again except stupidity.
 
Brainster said:
What is also notable about those polls is that in those same six states, the Democratic Senate candidates are ahead. Which says to me that the problem is Joe Biden, not the (D) after his name.
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I find it hard to believe that anyone who would vote for a Dem Senator would vote for Trump.
 
Stacyhs said:
I learned from 2016: don't trust polls but don't underestimate the stupidity of people, either. I can almost understand 2016... kinda...sorta...but 2024? There's no excuse if Trump gets elected again except stupidity.
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I don’t think the lesson of 2016 should have been “don’t trust polls”. The polls somewhat favoured a Clinton victory but, as people such as Nate Silver pointed out at the time, the margin of error still made a Trump victory possible especially if there was a systemic error in the polling which turned out to be the case.

Either way, the election looks, to me, too close to call and anyone making supremely confident claims that Trump can’t win are deluding themselves.
 
oh, well i don’t think he can’t win. i think there’s good reason to believe he won’t win.
 
Brainster said:
in those same six states, the Democratic Senate candidates are ahead. Which says to me that the problem is Joe Biden, not the (D) after his name.
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To some extent, Genocide Joe is taking the blame for the cumulative effect of decades of his whole party's behavior toward its own base. He was a part of that all along himself, but not all of it.

To me, the most telling result of recent surveys, in assessing the reason(s) why he's losing, is the Marist poll about candidates as threats/dangers "to democracy". I keep seeing Democrats or others who generally prefer Ds over Rs saying that's what Trump is, and even seeming to count on that to eventually turn out to cost Trump the election, but it actually turned out that close to the same numbers of people say Biden is too. I think it was both in the 40s overall with Trump a few points higher, but Biden (and not Trump) going up a bit over 50 among independents. So Biden is just a few points below Trump overall and a few points above him among independents on a question that lots of Democrats take it as perfectly obvious should just be all-Trump. Apparently, it's hard to position yourself/yourselves as the great defender(s)/savior(s) of democracy when your party, not the other one, is the one that's gone thoroughly antidemocratic with its own internal procedures, and/or when your response to expected protests at the convention is to hide it online and pretend they don't exist, and/or when you explicitly side with the goons attacking peaceful protesters. (And explicitly siding with the psychotic monsters slaughtering a minority ethnicity in another country probably doesn't help; it's not really about democracy, but it is about how minorities should be treated, which is pretty solidly linked with most Americans' idea of democracy and might have spilled into some people's responses to the survey.)

angrysoba said:
I don’t think the lesson of 2016 should have been “don’t trust polls”... anyone making supremely confident claims that Trump can’t win are deluding themselves.
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Self-delusion is what "don't trust the polls" is all about, both with and without the "because 2016" clause attached.
 
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dirtywick said:
trumps spent the last week sleep pooping himself while looking like more of a creep than a porn star. not sure what demographic he’s been appealing to lately
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Well .. the same way Biden's main quality is he is not Trump, Trump's very important quality is he's not Biden. I think not many his voters are really happy with the options.

As for the polls, fivethirtyeight.com runs graphs over time, averaged over available polls .. and they link several polls per week. The situation is surprisingly unchanging and undecided.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

I read great interview with poll company guy recently (unrelated to US election) .. and he was asked what is the biggest problem for polling. And he said it's not the method, not the question, not the number of people asked .. it's if the people themselves don't know yet. And with US election, the gap is big enough to be decisive.

My biggest fear is still Biden will simply die. Trump can as well, but damn, does he look healthy recently. Not much hope for that.
 
Democrats win as long as Trump is in the Race where it really matters a: in donations.
Running against Trump has been the most lucrative thing ever.

Winning is actually bad for fundraising.
 
Delvo said:
To some extent, Genocide Joe is taking the blame for the cumulative effect of decades of his whole party's behavior toward its own base. He was a part of that all along himself, but not all of it.

To me, the most telling result of recent surveys, in assessing the reason(s) why he's losing, is the Marist poll about candidates as threats/dangers "to democracy". I keep seeing Democrats or others who generally prefer Ds over Rs saying that's what Trump is, and even seeming to count on that to eventually turn out to cost Trump the election, but it actually turned out that close to the same numbers of people say Biden is too. I think it was both in the 40s overall with Trump a few points higher, but Biden (and not Trump) going up a bit over 50 among independents. So Biden is just a few points below Trump overall and a few points above him among independents on a question that lots of Democrats take it as perfectly obvious should just be all-Trump. Apparently, it's hard to position yourself/yourselves as the great defender(s)/savior(s) of democracy when your party, not the other one, is the one that's gone thoroughly antidemocratic with its own internal procedures, and/or when your response to expected protests at the convention is to hide it online and pretend they don't exist, and/or when you explicitly side with the goons attacking peaceful protesters. (And explicitly siding with the psychotic monsters slaughtering a minority ethnicity in another country probably doesn't help; it's not really about democracy, but it is about how minorities should be treated, which is pretty solidly linked with most Americans' idea of democracy and might have spilled into some people's responses to the survey.)

Self-delusion is what "don't trust the polls" is all about, both with and without the "because 2016" clause attached.
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Using "Genocide Joe", blaming the Dems, and calling not trusting polls after the vast majority of polls favored Clinton over Trump as "self-delusion" is just more far-left whining about not having everything your way.
 
newyorkguy said:
The size of trump's crowd is under dispute. What a surprise, right? :rolleyes:
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To get back to this, now Roger Stone has been caught in a lie.
Republican operative Roger Stone was slammed on Sunday after he posted a picture of what he claimed was a photo of the supposedly massive crowds at former President Donald Trump’s New Jersey rally on Saturday...Although there was a crowd of people behind the former president when he spoke, the audience in front looked sparse, and got smaller toward the end of his 90-minute speech.

However, people noticed the mountains in the background, which aren’t a part of the topography of the New Jersey shore, and immediately ascertained the photo was fake. In fact, as the community note that was eventually attached to Stone’s post noted, the photo was actually from a 1994 Rod Stewart concert in Rio De Janeiro. Yahoo News news link
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[imgW=500]https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/6459466440ed44d271.jpg[/imgW]
 
By Trump fans’ logic, Rod Stewart would easily win the presidency in Brazil.
 
We should not underestimate Trump's appeal and ability to mobilize people.

More importantly, these rallies work as Instant Focus Groups for his messaging and allows him to fine tune his campaigning.

Biden's messaging would be a lot different if he got direct feedback from a stadium full of voters instead of being in a bubble of "experts" telling him what "The People" want.

Exposing himself to crowds makes Trump seem more approachable, relatable, human
What he is actually saying at these events is far less important than that.
 
newyorkguy said:
To get back to this, now Roger Stone has been caught in a lie.


[imgW=500]https://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/6459466440ed44d271.jpg[/imgW]
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Yeah, I'd like to know where those kinds of coastal hills in the background are in New Jersey?

Its actually worse than the cliff in Cherry Hill in the climax of Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle.
 
If NJ is really in play for Trump, then this election is over. But, I don't believe NJ is really in play.
 
angrysoba said:
Skeptic Ginger said:
You need to look at more than one poll, over what time frame, who was the target market they polled and how were the questions framed for starters.
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This is all very easily discoverable by clicking the links, which I have already done, and read through the questions to find out what is the most important issues for those polled.

Link

You need to look at more than one poll,

Why?

Over what time frame?

Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in five of six states polled by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College from April 28 to May 9, 2024.
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who was the target market they polled

You should look at the methodology section:

How These Polls Were Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this set of polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College:

• We spoke with 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• When the states are joined together, the margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state poll has a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to plus or minus 4.6 points in Georgia. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.
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I don't think there should be much concern that the polls were badly constructed.
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So, retirees in Florida from Cuba. Trump's rusted-on base.
 
angrysoba said:
That would be a very bad way to poll the six states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Philadelphia, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
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I can call an Australian landline phone number for a company supposedly based in Melbourne, and someone in Mumbai answers. You can forward your number to any other, or a cell phone. People move house and keep the same phone number for convenience. So there is no guarantee the numbers they actually called were households in any of those states...or even in the USA.

Phone surveys and their severe shortcomings have been analysed to death in this forum many times over the years. Even if the surveys were done entirely honestly (they're not), there's always a big blank gap between the base data and the published survey results where the injection of any newsworthy filtering and bias gets a run. And I've personally seen news organisations conspire to slant reporting of events for views/clicks/notoriety.

So I give zero credence to any phone surveys, even ones saying Biden is streets ahead.
 
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Norman Alexander said:
So, retirees in Florida from Cuba. Trump's rusted-on base.
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See link for rest of the post supporting the NYT poll? Consider this the well supported rebuttal:



If you want to watch it on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btryWjj-4hQ

Watch at least the first 10 minutes of a contradictory discussion about the poll. 18 minutes is better if you have the time. It is very interesting discussing critically thinking about this particular NYT poll.
 
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