Merged 2024 Election Thread

[TellyKNeasuss]

Practically speaking, in four years he has to replace hundreds of generals, colonels, admirals, and (naval) captains, across all branches of service.

That's simply not practical. The armed forces would notice an attempted wholesale purge of their flag ranks and senior field ranks. And that's just not how the US military works.

1) the president wouldn't have to replace every single one, only replace those in key leadership positions.
2) most military officers stay in a posting for 3 years, so in fact there are a significant number of appointments in any presidential term.

And that's just the military. There's also the civil services, the Secret Service, the Capitol Police, etc. I think you're vastly underestimating the scope of what Trump would have to replace, just to get things to a point where he could actually unmake the US the way you fear.

Have you heard of Schedule F? Trump's plan to drastically reduce the number of federal employees who have civil service protection? I, for one, would not assume that Trump would prioritize keeping agencies functional over stocking them with loyalists. And, again, it would only take only replacing leaders. Government employees are only permitted to work on what they are authorized by management to work on and in general are required to work on the tasks they are assigned whether or not they agree with those tasks.

 

[thaiboxerken]

They aren't paying what they've promised to pay, they aren't carrying their weight in terms of capability.

What's the promise? Do you have evidence to support this?

Here's the funny thing. The last thing Putin wants is for all the NATO members to meet those spending goals, because if they do, that means NATO is stronger and can more easily stand up to PUTIN. You don't like how Trump is trying to reach that goal, and it's not unreasonable to object to that. I'm definitely not arguing that this is the optimal approach. But the goal he's pushing really is to the alliance's benefit, and it's silly to call that treasonous. That's no less hyperbolic than Trump himself.

Trump's goal is not to strengthen NATO at all. His entire goal is to help Putin. He's demonizing NATO to convince Americans that NATO is bad and ineffective. Trump's goal is to dismantle NATO so that Putin can do whatever Putin wants in Europe. He is in Putin's pocket, and so are most Republicans these days.

 

[Ziggurat]

Legally, a president can appoint any officer who is currently any rank of general or admiral to the Joint Chiefs of Staff and promote them to 4-star general or admiral (as long as the Senate approves). Do you think that Trump would not be able to find a loyal general from among, for instance, the 200+ generals in the Army, e.g., another Michael Flynn?

Loyal to what degree? That they would stage a coup for him? No, I don't think he could. Furthermore, getting a general willing to do that isn't enough either. Generals don't lead operations from the front. You need lower ranking officers too, as well as the actual soldiers.

You seem to think that everyone who wants Trump to be president also wants him to become a dictator. And that's just ridiculous. It's not even remotely true. There are very few people who would actually be willing to stage a coup for him, and there's no way he can reliably identify them let alone get them all into the correct places in the military to pull it off. Hell, he's got enough problems even identifying the people in government who want to carry out his legal policy agendas, there's no way in hell he's ever pulling off a coup.

Seriously, just think about how many people who used to work for him who no longer support him. Where's he going to find the necessary support for something like this? It's not plausible. I don't think he's up to even attempting a coup, and given the risks (ie, possible death) I can't imagine why he would even want to try. And for what? What's the upside? Having to watch his back for the rest of his life? After four more years, I think he's going to want to get out of DC and just stay in Mara Lago

 

[Hercules56]

They aren't paying what they've promised to pay, they aren't carrying their weight in terms of capability.....

Really???

All members of NATO committed in writing to spend at least 2% of their budget on defense?

When did this happen?

Please provide evidence that all members of NATO agreed to such a commitment, cuz I think you're lying.

 

[Hercules56]

What's the promise? Do you have evidence to support this?



Trump's goal is not to strengthen NATO at all. His entire goal is to help Putin. He's demonizing NATO to convince Americans that NATO is bad and ineffective. Trump's goal is to dismantle NATO so that Putin can do whatever Putin wants in Europe. He is in Putin's pocket, and so are most Republicans these days.

Its beyond absurd to suggest that a stronger more robust NATO alliance is Trump's goal. Its a pathological lie or pathological delusion.

 

[theprestige]

Legally, a president can appoint any officer who is currently any rank of general or admiral to the Joint Chiefs of Staff and promote them to 4-star general or admiral (as long as the Senate approves). Do you think that Trump would not be able to find a loyal general from among, for instance, the 200+ generals in the Army, e.g., another Michael Flynn?

It's not just one loyal general he needs, though. The Joint Chiefs don't have command authority. If he needed the military to enforce his decrees, he'd have to go to one of the combatant commands, most likely the Northern Command, which is responsible for military defense of the continental US itself. And he'd have to replace not only the commander and deputy commander, he'd almost certainly have to replace most of the colonels and lieutenant colonels responsible for the actual combat units in the Northern Command. And then cross his fingers and hope their majors and captains and senior NCOs just fall in line. All these career military men and women, who took an oath to defend the constitution from all enemies foreign and domestic. How many Michael Flynns do you think there are in the Northern Command? How many of them do you think he can find and install, in four years? How many soldiers do you think would actually fall in line behind a Michael Flynn, for the kind of project you're afraid of?

 

[Ziggurat]

Trump's goal is not to strengthen NATO at all. His entire goal is to help Putin.

Then there's no reason to ask NATO countries to increase defense spending. See, when you ask those countries to do that, you run a risk that they might, you know, actually do that. If you want NATO weak, then don't push to increase spending. Try to limit that spending instead.

He's demonizing NATO to convince Americans that NATO is bad and ineffective.

Bad and ineffective at what? That's a rather key question.

NATO is a pretty good deal for a lot of European countries. It's quite critical for the Balkan states, and has been very effective in providing them with security. But is it effective at advancing American security interests? In the cold war, I think it pretty clearly was. Now? That's a harder question, and it also depends a bit on what you think American security interests even are. And there isn't unanimous consensus on that question. This isn't really the thread to hash it out, but it's entirely possible for NATO to be effective at supporting European security interests but not effective at supporting American security interests. And "effective" here also means cost effective, not just whether or not it does anything positive.

Trump's goal is to dismantle NATO so that Putin can do whatever Putin wants in Europe. He is in Putin's pocket, and so are most Republicans these days.

First off, the worst thing Trump could ever do to NATO would be to leave it, but I don't think he can on his own. And even supposing he did, would Russia really be able to steamroll the rest of Europe? No, I don't think he could. NATO would lose a lot of combat power without the US, but Russia has alread revealed itself to be weaker than previously thought, and NATO just added two new members. Even without the USA, NATO is still more than a match for Russia.

Second, Trump has done too much against Russian interests to make it plausible that he's in Putin's pocket. One of the big ones which is frequently ignored is on energy. He opposed Nordstream 2 construction, even imposing sanctions, which Biden later removed. And he pushed for more domestic energy production, which helps lower energy prices and thus deprives Russia of revenue, while Biden has reversed course. The primary motivation for both Trump and Biden are probably domestic politics rather than concern for how it affects Putin, but it doesn't matter: it's still not what he would do if he was actually in Putin's pocket. You can argue that Trump isn't as antagonistic to Putin as he should be, but it's always been clear that he's not under Putin's control. That was always just tin foil hat conspiracy theories.

 

[Ziggurat]

Its beyond absurd to suggest that a stronger more robust NATO alliance is Trump's goal. Its a pathological lie or pathological delusion.

Whether or not it's his goal, that would still be a consequence of Trump getting what he asked for, would it not? Or do you somehow imagine that countries increasing their defense budgets will somehow weaken their militaries? How does that figure?

 

[theprestige]

You seem to be implying that it would take a large military force to shut down Congress. Why wouldn't a token force be sufficient?

A token force is just a token. As soon as it becomes clear that it's just a small number of light infantry, with no artillery or air support, no logistics to sustain their food, water, medical, and ammunition needs, a token resistance would be enough to end the "coup".

Who would resist? Certainly, the Capitol Police wouldn't engage in combat against military troops.

Why not? They're trained and equipped to resist terrorist attacks.

 

[Ziggurat]

And, again, it would only take only replacing leaders. Government employees are only permitted to work on what they are authorized by management to work on and in general are required to work on the tasks they are assigned whether or not they agree with those tasks.

Yeah, this is delusional. We aren't talking about implementing some policy that the bureaucrats don't like (which even that is harder than you imagine). We're talking about a coup. You think an entire branch of government is just going to go along with a coup because one guy at the top said to? That's not happening.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

I don't think he's up to even attempting a coup, and given the risks (ie, possible death) I can't imagine why he would even want to try. And for what? What's the upside? Having to watch his back for the rest of his life? After four more years, I think he's going to want to get out of DC and just stay in Mara Lago

After all, that's exactly what he did after his first four years.

By the way, it's Mar-a-Lago. Let's show some respect for the guy's insurrectionist's official residence, valued at somewhere between $18 million (as assessed by Palm Beach County) and $739 million (according to Trump's fraudulent financial statements).

Eric Trump thinks it's "worth well over a billion dollars making it arguably the most valuable residential property in the country." There are two problems with Eric's assessment. One is that it isn't a residential property, and can't become a residential property because of a deed restriction. The other problem is that the most expensive residence in the entire United States recently went up for sale with an asking price of $295 million, and it's a bit of stretch to argue Mar-a-Lago would be worth five times as much as any other US residence.

 

[Random]

Loyal to what degree? That they would stage a coup for him? No, I don't think he could. Furthermore, getting a general willing to do that isn't enough either. Generals don't lead operations from the front. You need lower ranking officers too, as well as the actual soldiers.

You seem to think that everyone who wants Trump to be president also wants him to become a dictator. And that's just ridiculous. It's not even remotely true. There are very few people who would actually be willing to stage a coup for him, and there's no way he can reliably identify them let alone get them all into the correct places in the military to pull it off. Hell, he's got enough problems even identifying the people in government who want to carry out his legal policy agendas, there's no way in hell he's ever pulling off a coup.

Seriously, just think about how many people who used to work for him who no longer support him. Where's he going to find the necessary support for something like this? It's not plausible. I don't think he's up to even attempting a coup, and given the risks (ie, possible death) I can't imagine why he would even want to try. And for what? What's the upside? Having to watch his back for the rest of his life? After four more years, I think he's going to want to get out of DC and just stay in Mara Lago

Yeah, you seem to think that it would be the old, "Do what I say or you will be shot" style Fascism. The new, 21st Century version of Fascism is more like Victor Orban in Hungary.

No shots fired, just making sure all the media is run by friends and cronies, adjusting the bureaucracy to maximize work for opponents and minimize it for allies, and generally just tilting the playing field in the ruling classes favor as much as possible. Less "arrest people for protesting", more "require a permit for protesting, only grant the permit to political allies, arrest people who protest without a permit".

The big mistake that a lot of people make is thinking that there will be some line that the authoritarians will cross that will lead to a big uprising. What usually happens is that each negative step down is small enough that it doesn't really justify an uprising. Then you wait a bit for people to adjust, then another tiny step down. No one really has anything specific to protest or fight against. The idea that the military would step in in such a slow-moving transition in order to restore democracy is laughable.

This was the big failure of the January 6 riots. It was just too blatant an attempt to seize power to be ignored. The GOP just needs to get into power either legitimately, or get close enough that they can Bush vs Gore it. Once in power however...

 

[Aridas]

Second, Trump has done too much against Russian interests to make it plausible that he's in Putin's pocket. One of the big ones which is frequently ignored is on energy. He opposed Nordstream 2 construction, even imposing sanctions, which Biden later removed. And he pushed for more domestic energy production, which helps lower energy prices and thus deprives Russia of revenue, while Biden has reversed course. The primary motivation for both Trump and Biden are probably domestic politics rather than concern for how it affects Putin, but it doesn't matter: it's still not what he would do if he was actually in Putin's pocket. You can argue that Trump isn't as antagonistic to Putin as he should be, but it's always been clear that he's not under Putin's control.

Yes, you've repeatedly made it explicitly clear that you're happy to ignore everything except for the points of data that you think favor you on this. Specifically when it comes to this, you've stated that so long as Trump worked to aid the US oil and gas industry, you will completely ignore all Trump's problematic behavior related to Russia and claim that they're actually opposed. It's true that it's not much of a stretch to say that those calling Trump "Putin's Puppet" tend to be using a little bit of usually comedic hyperbole, but there are real and serious concerns about Putin's influence over Trump and how that's played out in practice.

That was always just tin foil hat conspiracy theories.

According to certain segments of the population, the whole Trump Russia relationship is tin foil hat conspiracy theories, even after numerous investigations found that the actual concerns have been very well founded in fact and reality.

 

[ahhell]

While I believe Trump is terrible and he will issue a series of illegal and unconstitutional orders that will result in a series of minor crises, the notion that he'll put a few folks in strategic positions perfectly placed have troops march on congress is.....far fetched. He has not demonstrated any such ability. Seriously, with the exception of stoking a riot, his attempt to stay in office on Jan 6th was laughable. I don't want to rely on incompetence to maintain my democracy, but Trump is as incompetent as he his malign. His administration is likely to be people of equal comeptence and knowledge as he himself.

I also think this sort of hyperbole will make it more likely that he will be re-elected.

 

[ahhell]

According to certain segments of the population, the whole Trump Russia relationship is tin foil hat conspiracy theories, even after numerous investigations found that the actual concerns have been very well founded in fact and reality.

And also absolutely overblown to the point of tinfoil hat conspiracies.

This is the thing, if you rate Trumps actions on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is a thing any president would do and 10 off the cliff into NAZI's. Trumps spends his time between 5 and 7 but his opponents act like its all 11.

 

[Ziggurat]

After all, that's exactly what he did after his first four years.

He tried to get the military to take over the capitol? Yeah, no, he didn't.

And he's not eligible for a third term, so he can't even run in 2028 if he wins in 2024. So a repeat of what actually happened in 2020/2021 isn't possible either.

 

[Ziggurat]

According to certain segments of the population, the whole Trump Russia relationship is tin foil hat conspiracy theories

Because it was.

even after numerous investigations found that the actual concerns have been very well founded in fact and reality.

Tell me you didn't pay attention without telling me you didn't pay attention.

 

[Ziggurat]

Yeah, you seem to think that it would be the old, "Do what I say or you will be shot" style Fascism. The new, 21st Century version of Fascism is more like Victor Orban in Hungary.

No shots fired, just making sure all the media is run by friends and cronies

Have you ever seen US media? We are at zero risk of it becoming dominated by Trump allies.

adjusting the bureaucracy to maximize work for opponents and minimize it for allies

It's currently tilted against conservatives. If that's your concern, then why aren't you opposing Biden?

and generally just tilting the playing field in the ruling classes favor as much as possible.

The ruling class favors Biden. I don't think you've really thought this argument through.

The big mistake that a lot of people make is thinking that there will be some line that the authoritarians will cross that will lead to a big uprising. What usually happens is that each negative step down is small enough that it doesn't really justify an uprising.

Why do you think so many working class people support Trump? Because they see exactly this sort of thing happening under the Democrats. And the push to keep Trump off the ballot fits that pattern exactly. Not letting your opponents even run is exactly the sort of anti-democratic move that you say you're worried about. Flooding your political opponent with so many prosecutions and lawsuits that something might stick is exactly the sort of soft fascism you think is a threat. Why are you worried about Trump maybe doing this in the future when it's already happening?

 

[W.D.Clinger]

He tried to get the military to take over the capitol? Yeah, no, he didn't.

And he's not eligible for a third term, so he can't even run in 2028 if he wins in 2024. So a repeat of what actually happened in 2020/2021 isn't possible either.

Your reading comprehension fails again.

Here, I'll highlight the sentence that tickled my funny bone, and to which I responded with the obvious rejoinder:

I don't think he's up to even attempting a coup, and given the risks (ie, possible death) I can't imagine why he would even want to try. And for what? What's the upside? Having to watch his back for the rest of his life? After four more years, I think he's going to want to get out of DC and just stay in Mara Lago

After all, that's exactly what he did after his first four years.

By the way, it's Mar-a-Lago. Let's show some respect for the guy's insurrectionist's official residence, valued at somewhere between $18 million (as assessed by Palm Beach County) and $739 million (according to Trump's fraudulent financial statements).

Eric Trump thinks it's "worth well over a billion dollars making it arguably the most valuable residential property in the country." There are two problems with Eric's assessment. One is that it isn't a residential property, and can't become a residential property because of a deed restriction. The other problem is that the most expensive residence in the entire United States recently went up for sale with an asking price of $295 million, and it's a bit of stretch to argue Mar-a-Lago would be worth five times as much as any other US residence.

 

[Hercules56]

Have you ever seen US media? We are at zero risk of it becoming dominated by Trump allies.



It's currently tilted against conservatives. If that's your concern, then why aren't you opposing Biden?



The ruling class favors Biden. I don't think you've really thought this argument through.



Why do you think so many working class people support Trump? Because they see exactly this sort of thing happening under the Democrats. And the push to keep Trump off the ballot fits that pattern exactly. Not letting your opponents even run is exactly the sort of anti-democratic move that you say you're worried about. Flooding your political opponent with so many prosecutions and lawsuits that something might stick is exactly the sort of soft fascism you think is a threat. Why are you worried about Trump maybe doing this in the future when it's already happening?

So you think Trump should be immune from the 14th Amendment ban on insurrectionists holding office, should not be charged for conspiring to steal the 2020 election, should not be charged with stealing and mishandling classified govt documents, should not be charged with fraud regarding his Stormy Daniels payments?

Why do you think Trump is 100% above the law?