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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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ZiprHead said:
Nice Dodge.
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What? My original point in responding to SG was that somehow she left 2016 out of the list of elections the pollsters got wrong. Given that they got it completely and utterly wrong, I was puzzled why she only mentioned 2018, 2020, and 2022.
ETA: And I don't think the pollsters recently have a good record. That said, I thought this from the article she cited was hilarious:

Fortune Mag said:
The average poll had Herschel Walker beating Raphael Warnock in Georgia by 1% when in reality Warnock outperformed Walker by 1%; and not a single poll in the week before election day projected a Warnock victory.
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Seriously 2 percentage points off is a terrific poll result and nobody but an idiot would assume that since the polls showed him ahead by 1% that he was guaranteed a victory.
 
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Segnosaur said:
That's the thing that worries some of us.

Yes, the economy is normally a major factor in a president's re-election bid, but inflation has already been declining for a while, and job growth has been strong (even surpassing that of Trump pre-covid). Stock markets are growing, deficit is down. Biden SHOULD be seen as a savior of the economy, but his approval rating is still under water, and Trump has led in several polling matchups.
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That's largely because most people aren't seeing the fruits of the strong economy. Wealth share (and this is worldwide) has never been more polarised than it is today, with the richest gobbling up more and more income (and they already have almost all the wealth) with each passing year, leaving the common people with less and less to live on.
 
It is a tie at 49% each, as to New Hampshire voters agreeing or not if Biden legitimately won the last election. America is getting exponentially more stupid.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Yeah. So much is stacked against Biden, and in general against the D candidate that I don't really have much hope. The GOP, especially with Russian help, is vastly better at propaganda than the Democrats. Theres the EC. Theres the fact that most under 25's are pro-Hamas Palestine. And they view Biden as GoP-light. Theres the fact that for whatever reason, most Americans view the economy/state of the union as poor. Which always hurts the incumbent. In the dems favor is several state's new very restrictive abortion laws are quite unpopular, especially with women.

Look at the chart:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map

CNN's EC map already has the GOP just over 272. Compared to the 2020 election, GA and MI are almost certainly lost causes for Biden. He needs to take all those yellow states (he will take PA IMO), plus something. NV or NC. In sports terms, Biden needs to run the table.
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Give GA to Biden. Give MI to Biden. Even winning Arizona Trump can't win anymore.
 
ZiprHead said:
2016 had the "More Hillary Emails" story that came out just before the election. There wasn't enough time to do more polling to adjust for that new news.

BTW, I believe Rudy Giuliani orchestrated that. The New York Justice Department had the laptop with the "new" emails on it for months. Rudy had previously said he had contacts in the NYJD. Then afterwards when he was questioned on this subject he changed his story, saying essentially all his contacts there were Retired.
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Hillary should have ditched Huma. No Huma around would mean no Weiner, and no sex chat with 15yo girls (yet AGAIN!), no confiscation of the computers and no separate department investigating and 'finding' State Department emails.

Weiner caused enough damage, in his own pervert way, to sink Hillary's billion dollar campaign.
But the emails getting anywhere near him is all Hillary's fault.


eta: as for this election, unless they swap out Biden, Trump wins- and not even close.
America just can't seem to move past this final screen of the game to see how it ends. Maybe there is too much internet immersion and constant fast edits over the covid lockdown and restricted social options. Brains are warped to think this is a good thing for the friggen "PLANET EARTH" -the only home we have.

Runners up are playing the actuarial table odds for second in line (that is NOT Kamala). Death is at about what, 10% 15%? Statistically pretty good to stay in and on 'pause'.
Brain meltdown for Biden may be higher. So far, most people have been kind enough to let him keep access to the nuclear codes. I wouldnt let him watch my goldfish for a week to be honest.
 
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angrysoba said:
In one sense, I agree with you Skeptic Ginger. 10 months out from the election is too soon to tell. But I conclude from that that I have no idea who will win. But you seem to conclude from that that Biden will win. I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion from the premise.
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My conclusion differs from yours and a few others in this thread because there are facts the news media is not reporting on. The news media's business model isn't to sell accurate information. Their business model is to sell controversy, sensation and scandal. And what's more sensational than Trump will be re-elected?

Underneath that sensational reporting are the facts.

Interviewing the person on the street.
Interview a bunch of people, maybe even ask leading questions. You'll easily find one or more that is unhappy with the economy.​
But the economy in real numbers has been improving for more than a year. By 10 more months from now it's unlikely Trump's economic doom and gloom campaign talking points will have much impact. He's a broken record. Maybe his die hard cult followers will still be convinced but that 35% in the middle will be rolling their eyes.

You can go down the list. Trump's claims there would be no new wars in the world if he were POTUS is an absurd claim. I'm not sure who believes that. We voted for Biden in 2020 to come clean up the mess Trump made of things. It won't be that hard to remind the voters of that.

It won't be that hard to remind voters about all the corruption under Trump including paying cronies during the COVID pandemic. All sorts of cronies took out loans based on lies about employees that never existed and many of them have not paid those 'loans' back.

It's not hard to put campaign ads out showing Trump bungling the COVID pandemic response. More than a million people in the US died of COVID or COVID related illnesses while Trump suggested it would go away in the Spring and a cure might be as simple of drinking bleach.

Trump and his family raked in millions in hotel and golf course profits from customers directed to his properties and from requiring secret service personnel stay at those properties to this day.


When I say there are 10 months before the election I'm trying to point out the foolishness of being misled by what people hear in today's news and by today's "polls". Campaigning against Trump and for Biden has not yet begun.
 
Aridas said:
It's perhaps worth noting that the article seems to be specifically and explicitly delving into the thinking of MAGA people. The reasoning that these MAGA people are putting forth pretty much looks like they've been willingly bamboozled on top of that. Trump leads the country into disaster, then they whine about how things are worse off during and post-disaster and blame the people fixing things, rather than the ones who broke them. Seriously, it's a bit sickening, as reasoning goes.
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None of that changes what I posted. The person on the street interview doesn't represent the whole.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
That's largely because most people aren't seeing the fruits of the strong economy. Wealth share (and this is worldwide) has never been more polarised than it is today, with the richest gobbling up more and more income (and they already have almost all the wealth) with each passing year, leaving the common people with less and less to live on.
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I think that's absolutely true. But in the US said wealth is flowing quite a bit further down the hill than it has under most GOP administrations.
 
I just wan't to voice my profound disappointment and sadness that Vermin Supreme lost in New Hampshire...cause I was really hoping to get a free pony next year. :(
 
Dr.Sid said:
Source ?
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An Economist/YouGov Poll from December found that 61% of respondents didn't want Biden to run again, and 56% didn't want Trump to run. Even those who voted for Biden in 2020 barely support him by a 40%-38% margin. Trump is much more popular with his 2020 voters, winning them by a 64%-21% margin.
 
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