It's clear to me Biden will be reelected. Trump's senility gets more obvious by the day.
It does, but that won't stop Republicans voting for him, even those who claim to be moderate Republicans.
Merged 2024 Election Thread
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It does, but that won't stop Republicans voting for him, even those who claim to be moderate Republicans.
angrysoba
Philosophile
I'm sure if Trump literally soiled himself on stage, there would be a split second of disbelief and silence among his servile flock, before Trump points to the mess he's made and say, "That's Biden!" followed by cheers and whoops....
Skeptic Ginger
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Well let's see. The Don is getting a lot of his information about Trump from his Trump supporting in-laws. Is that right?
Angrysoba is still annoyed I have a very strong opinion about COVID originating in a Wuhan lab. I doubt he's very objective about my POV re anything including Trump.
And Dr Sid thinks:
I don't find your POV very insightful ergo I must be ignoring the data?
What data am I ignoring? More than too many Americans were stupid enough to vote for Trump once, I'll give you that. But the country wasn't fooled twice, he wasn't reelected.
Republicans make up about a third of the US voting public. 70% of those voters, give or take ~10%, are die-hard Trump cultists. That third is a lost cause. They also happen to be the folks that the mainstream news media focus on given scandal and controversy sell the news. That is the mainstream news business model. Got anything that contradicts that?
Registered Democrats make up another ~1/3 of the voters. It's safe to call these guys never-Trumpers.
That leaves the middle third. This country's POTUS elections have swung on the middle ~1/3 of the voters for a couple of decades or more. And it actually comes down to a small fraction of that middle 1/3 given most of the so-called independents really aren't so independent.
Pew Research; 2019 when Trump was POTUS: Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think
The news media and the pollsters seem to think voters have second thoughts about Biden vs Trump. The election is 10 months away. It's absurd to think that is a valid assumption. And the idea the assumption is a certainty is idiotic.
Angrysoba is still annoyed I have a very strong opinion about COVID originating in a Wuhan lab. I doubt he's very objective about my POV re anything including Trump.
And Dr Sid thinks:
That's pretty stupid. Are you claiming all Americans "ignore the data"? Seriously?
I don't find your POV very insightful ergo I must be ignoring the data?
What data am I ignoring? More than too many Americans were stupid enough to vote for Trump once, I'll give you that. But the country wasn't fooled twice, he wasn't reelected.
Republicans make up about a third of the US voting public. 70% of those voters, give or take ~10%, are die-hard Trump cultists. That third is a lost cause. They also happen to be the folks that the mainstream news media focus on given scandal and controversy sell the news. That is the mainstream news business model. Got anything that contradicts that?
Registered Democrats make up another ~1/3 of the voters. It's safe to call these guys never-Trumpers.
That leaves the middle third. This country's POTUS elections have swung on the middle ~1/3 of the voters for a couple of decades or more. And it actually comes down to a small fraction of that middle 1/3 given most of the so-called independents really aren't so independent.
Pew Research; 2019 when Trump was POTUS: Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think
That analysis was reflected in the 2020 election. Any of you have a source that establishes a major shift in that 2020 position?
The news media and the pollsters seem to think voters have second thoughts about Biden vs Trump. The election is 10 months away. It's absurd to think that is a valid assumption. And the idea the assumption is a certainty is idiotic.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
Trump got over 11 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. His share of the popular vote also went up slightly.
Fortunately the number of people who voted for the Democratic candidate went up by even more. Though it was still a scarily close thing, thanks to the way the EC works.
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
I'm done discussing with you. I haven't seen such insincere way of communication here in a long time. Bye.
angrysoba
Philosophile
I think you are getting confused and taking things personally for no reason.
acbytesla
Penultimate Amazing
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I' don't think this is possible. In 2016 Trump received 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton and in 2020 he received 7 million fewer votes than Biden.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
I suppose wiki could be wrong, I didn't check the figures.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
Skeptic Ginger
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I assure you I'm very sincere.
You said Americans are likely to ignore the data. That's a broad brush and you included me with it.
Hercules56 insulted Americans claiming, "A good 45% of America would indeed gladly kneel before King Trump."
The Don keeps ignoring the fact Trump lost in 2020 and the election is 10 months off.
Angrysoba made a rude comment that Trump could crap on stage and blame Biden and his followers would cheer.
All of those comments suggest you all think the majority of people in this country are in Trump's cult. That is what people believe who get a warped view from the news media who target crazy cultists for interviews. The media doesn't interview the boring average person not in Trump's cult.
I'm pointing out some people who don't live in this country are posting a warped idea of just how big Trump's cult is. Keep in mind every person who voted for Trump was not in his cult. Some people have fallen for the propaganda. The GOP knows how to market their candidates and a lot of them have no qualms with dishonest marketing.
Skeptic Ginger
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So Trump had a smaller share of the popular vote in 2020 though he had a larger total number of voters. It would be interesting to know out of those 74K+ how many were in the cult, how many believed the rhetoric, and how many were GOP voters regardless.
Turnout was bigger in 2020 and some of that could be attributed to people wanting Trump out. Wait until 2024 and see how many voters the pro-choice agenda brings out.
One thing we need to do in the next 10 months is some of that small market voter analysis that Cambridge Analytica did in 2016. That is how to win in the key battleground states where less than 100K votes might make the difference.
Absolutely true but he also received 8 million more votes than he did in 2016.
Think about that - after 4 years of turmoil, a pandemic and an economic collapse, eight million more people said "He's the guy for us, he's the right person to lead the USA" - it absolutely beggars belief but it's a clear indication of what might very well happen in 2024, especially as memories have faded and the right wing media machine has worked hard to create new, false, ones.
If President Trump gets another 8 million, taking him to 82 million, will President Biden be able to convince the 90+ million required to overturn the EC bias to vote for him ?
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
Another fresh poll, 6414 registered voters (ie. pretty big). Yet another "Trump lost some, but Biden lost more". Jan 19-21 by Morning Consult, the whole article sadly paywalled. Still the main graph can be snatched.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
Trump clearly must do something more extraordinary, than he did so far. Conviction could do it. But will it be enough ? And will there be one in time ?
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
Trump clearly must do something more extraordinary, than he did so far. Conviction could do it. But will it be enough ? And will there be one in time ?
Crazy Chainsaw
Philosopher
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As long as the Ecconomy stays at Record highs with declining inflation Biden will win.
Crazy Chainsaw
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Absolutely true but he also received 8 million more votes than he did in 2016.
Think about that - after 4 years of turmoil, a pandemic and an economic collapse, eight million more people said "He's the guy for us, he's the right person to lead the USA" - it absolutely beggars belief but it's a clear indication of what might very well happen in 2024, especially as memories have faded and the right wing media machine has worked hard to create new, false, ones.
If President Trump gets another 8 million, taking him to 82 million, will President Biden be able to convince the 90+ million required to overturn the EC bias to vote for him ?
Trump will lose big amount young voters because of the Abortion debate, as long as the Ecconomy doesn't crash he will win.
angrysoba
Philosophile
Hercules56
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The Gaza war is killing Biden's support among young people.
Crazy Chainsaw
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Not if Trump I the Republicans Canidate, remember he moved the Embassy to Jerusalem as is more pro Israeli than Biden.
Hercules56
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Old news. The news of the day is Biden's blind eye to the ethnic cleansing and IDF barbarism in Gaza, and its making young people want to stay home on Nov 4.
Delvo
Дэлво Δε&#
Moving an embassy is not more pro-them than continuing to both verbally and materially back them in their campaign of genocide. Trump might have done the latter too if he'd been given the opportunity during his Presidency, but he wasn't, and, even if he would've, that would only make both Presidents the same on this, not one better than the other. "Vote for the guy who's just the same as the other guy" is not much of an election rallying cry.
And it's not even Biden's first round of doing that, nor would it have been Trump's; they've also both been on the side of Saudi Arabia during their slaughter in Yemen (which apparently gave us the current Houthi crisis). Then there's backing Ukraine, sort-of but not really, just enough to keep dragging it on & on but not enough to win. The only big international move Biden has made that wasn't pro-war was leaving Afghanistan, and that wasn't even his idea; he got it straight from Trump.
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W.D.Clinger
Philosopher
From those numbers:
- Trump's share of the popular vote increased from 2016 to 2020 (from 46.1% to 46.8%).
- Trump's share of the major party vote decreased from 2016 to 2020 (from 48.9% to 47.7%).
- The two facts stated above are consistent because third parties' share of the popular vote decreased from 2016 to 2020 (from 5.7% to 1.9%).
It might be possible to learn something from that.
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