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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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It is going somewaht the route the re-eöection of previous republicans...that served 2 terms...but not quite.
What’s remarkable is that he nonetheless attracted so many competitors for the nomination, who raised a lot of money for their primary runs. Tim Scott, Niki Haley, and Ron DeSantis finished September with a total of $26.7m available for use in the primary. That’s no small change.

It’s also easy to forget that Trump began his third bid for the White House just days after Republicans took a beating in the midterms. That was the third straight national election in which Trump was a drag on his party. Across the country, his hand-picked candidates, who embraced his big lie that the 2020 election was stolen, lost critical races.

But no one should confuse Trump’s performance in the Republican primaries for success in the presidential election.

When Americans actually focus on the presidential election and the stark reality of choosing between Biden and Trump, I expect they will once again choose Biden.


Even if Trump is not yet criminally convicted, I doubt that a majority of Americans will want for their president a man who has 91 criminal charges against him, who has been impeached twice, who has orchestrated an attempted coup, who has profited financially while president, who has stolen top-secret documents, and who has been judged to be a rapist.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/23/trump-primaries-election-biden-robert-reich
 
Moving an embassy is not more pro-them than continuing to both verbally and materially back them in their campaign of genocide. Trump might have done the latter too if he'd been given the opportunity during his Presidency, but he wasn't, and, even if he would've, that would only make both Presidents the same on this, not one better than the other. "Vote for the guy who's just the same as the other guy" is not much of an election rallying cry.

And it's not even Biden's first round of doing that, nor would it have been Trump's; they've also both been on the side of Saudi Arabia during their slaughter in Yemen (which apparently gave us the current Houthi crisis). Then there's backing Ukraine, sort-of but not really, just enough to keep dragging it on & on but not enough to win. The only big international move Biden has made that wasn't pro-war was leaving Afghanistan, and that wasn't even his idea; he got it straight from Trump.

So the pro Choice people are going to be highly Motivated to get out the young vote right?
 
As long as the Ecconomy stays at Record highs with declining inflation Biden will win.
That's the thing that worries some of us.

Yes, the economy is normally a major factor in a president's re-election bid, but inflation has already been declining for a while, and job growth has been strong (even surpassing that of Trump pre-covid). Stock markets are growing, deficit is down. Biden SHOULD be seen as a savior of the economy, but his approval rating is still under water, and Trump has led in several polling matchups.
 
That's the thing that worries some of us.

Yes, the economy is normally a major factor in a president's re-election bid, but inflation has already been declining for a while, and job growth has been strong (even surpassing that of Trump pre-covid). Stock markets are growing, deficit is down. Biden SHOULD be seen as a savior of the economy, but his approval rating is still under water, and Trump has led in several polling matchups.

Normally. As many of us have seen, though, it frequently feels like the news is just flat out refusing to use anything remotely close to objective standards. Its baseline seems to be heavily biased towards Republicans, even when it's being generally critical of Republicans. The economy is just one part of that, really. With Trump, the economy mostly did fine on its own in the aftermath of Obama's handling. While the media did note that Trump repeatedly acted to artificially prop up the economy in ways that were likely to cause serious problems down the road and screw over the average citizen, there was mostly praise. At least until Covid, which was just a general mess that Trump greatly exacerbated in all kinds of ways. People still look fondly back on Trump's irresponsibility, though, of course. With Biden (just like Obama), America was left with an economy in a mess and general unpleasantness all around. Biden's taken real action to rebuild our economy and help the average citizen, despite the outright sabotage attempts of the Republicans, and the praise that he's received frequently is closer to backhanded compliments and efforts to diminish it into nothing. It's nice that public opinion does seem to gradually be becoming more positive, yes, but it sure looks like that has more to do with the hard facts gradually overcoming the skewed towards serving Republican political interests information/attitudes being disseminated.
 
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That's the thing that worries some of us.

Yes, the economy is normally a major factor in a president's re-election bid, but inflation has already been declining for a while, and job growth has been strong (even surpassing that of Trump pre-covid). Stock markets are growing, deficit is down. Biden SHOULD be seen as a savior of the economy, but his approval rating is still under water, and Trump has led in several polling matchups.

People are feeling worse off regardless of the economic statistics and have been told that Biden and the Democrats don't care about the "little people". :mad:

Just a few years ago under Donald Trump, I felt like I could afford groceries and bring my girls skiing, and do all the things we wanted to do

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68053918
 
For the reason in the post above I too detect an undercurrent running through even the magats that Trump betrayed them.

His boys got pardoned before anything hit them yet thousands of his unpaid footsoldiers are suffering consequences of thier actions. Lost jobs, precious guns, serving time and best of all, cannot legally vote anymore.

This is the guy that got so many to ruin thier lives and the family attached too.
And he never stood up for them, never acknowledged the sacrifices of his faithful.
Those that can still vote may not want to choose Biden but will hesitate to go Trump somewhat. Maybe throw away thier vote on West or a write in.

It's too early to tell but it's real if unspoken. If Biden has done something that improved thier lot in life he might even get a vote.
The rest of the gaggle of R types going full coocoo bird lately certainly isn't helping Trump.
 

It's sorta the classic situation. Democrats do the hard work of making things good and Republicans act to take the credit while things are good and cause problems that the Democrats have to do the hard work to fix. Naturally, the Republicans blame the Democrats for the problems that Republicans caused and a lot of people willingly fall for it.
 
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Pollsters got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Here’s why political polling is no more than statistical sophistry
Great expert resources such as the National Opinion Research Center, Pew, and Edelman have better methods, larger samples, and avoid daily headline-driven overnight readings. Some such as the Harris Poll and Morning Consult are rather nuanced and accurate. However, media pundits and forecasters jam weaker outlets and partisan pollsters with reputable institutions together in their analysis.

The GOP-funded Trafalgar Group, as Slate showed, not just heavily failed in their overall calls but wrongly pronounced swings to the GOP among millennials and Hispanics when the opposite happened.

Two years ago, the New York Times warned that “Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously.” Undeterred, however, polling aggregator Nate Silver’s site rated them an A-.
I thought it was especially interesting the polls might simply reflect the current news cycle.
 
That's the thing that worries some of us.

Yes, the economy is normally a major factor in a president's re-election bid, but inflation has already been declining for a while, and job growth has been strong (even surpassing that of Trump pre-covid). Stock markets are growing, deficit is down. Biden SHOULD be seen as a savior of the economy, but his approval rating is still under water, and Trump has led in several polling matchups.

The prevailing thought, I gather (especially among Biden supporters, but also among ex-Republicans) is that Biden's performance is not being publicised very well at all. I assume this will change as the election looms closer.

I'm not altogether surprised, given the state of the US media. Mainstream media not pro-Trump is dismissed as fake news, and the pro-Trump media (Fox News is a prime example) has an amazing reach.
 
Ginger, I wish I shared your optimism that Trump won't win. I really do. But I can't. I also think it's a toss-up.

Yeah. So much is stacked against Biden, and in general against the D candidate that I don't really have much hope. The GOP, especially with Russian help, is vastly better at propaganda than the Democrats. Theres the EC. Theres the fact that most under 25's are pro-Hamas Palestine. And they view Biden as GoP-light. Theres the fact that for whatever reason, most Americans view the economy/state of the union as poor. Which always hurts the incumbent. In the dems favor is several state's new very restrictive abortion laws are quite unpopular, especially with women.

Look at the chart:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map

CNN's EC map already has the GOP just over 272. Compared to the 2020 election, GA and MI are almost certainly lost causes for Biden. He needs to take all those yellow states (he will take PA IMO), plus something. NV or NC. In sports terms, Biden needs to run the table.
 
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And you think that one person the news anchor found represents everyone?:rolleyes:

It's perhaps worth noting that the article seems to be specifically and explicitly delving into the thinking of MAGA people. The reasoning that these MAGA people are putting forth pretty much looks like they've been willingly bamboozled on top of that. Trump leads the country into disaster, then they whine about how things are worse off during and post-disaster and blame the people fixing things, rather than the ones who broke them. Seriously, it's a bit sickening, as reasoning goes.
 
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In one sense, I agree with you Skeptic Ginger. 10 months out from the election is too soon to tell. But I conclude from that that I have no idea who will win. But you seem to conclude from that that Biden will win. I don’t understand how you reach that conclusion from the premise.
 
Do you think a record of one out of four is a good record?

2016 was the election that most people point to as an example of an election called wrong. Almost everyone except fivethirtyeight predicted a Clinton dead cert victory. Nate Silver, on the other hand, while thinking it was more likely that Clinton would win, still gave Trump a reasonable chance (about 25% instead of the less than 1% chance that other analysts gave).
 
One thing's for sure, after today we will not hear the words "New Hampshire" in the news for almost another four years.
 
2016 was the election that most people point to as an example of an election called wrong. Almost everyone except fivethirtyeight predicted a Clinton dead cert victory. Nate Silver, on the other hand, while thinking it was more likely that Clinton would win, still gave Trump a reasonable chance (about 25% instead of the less than 1% chance that other analysts gave).

2016 had the "More Hillary Emails" story that came out just before the election. There wasn't enough time to do more polling to adjust for that new news.

BTW, I believe Rudy Giuliani orchestrated that. The New York Justice Department had the laptop with the "new" emails on it for months. Rudy had previously said he had contacts in the NYJD. Then afterwards when he was questioned on this subject he changed his story, saying essentially all his contacts there were Retired.
 
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