Merged 2024 Election Thread

[Skeptic Ginger]

Axelrod's point was that a primary campaign tests candidates, and that many (like apparently DeSantis) are considered strong contenders until they actually have to go out and gets some votes.

Come on Brainy, Axelrod is trying to boost book sales. Do you think he had some urgent need out of the blue to tell the public to get another Democratic POTUS candidate?

 

[The Atheist]

It wasn't software, you missed a bracket.

Yes, that was so obvious I tried a light-hearted response after asking for it to be fixed. I guess some people don't understand.

You're really fixated on these polling numbers from one poll. But you ignore that polls are not reliable.

Are you ok there?

Why on earth would I not ignore unreliable polls?

Nate Silver weighs polls by reliability to try to give the most accurate picture.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Why do you think that has changed now?

My best reasoning is that Americans are even dumber than I thought. I did say that in a sane world, Trump would be on single digits, but he clearly is not. The trend shows him improving his support, which is insane, but I have to accept it's happening. Biden's approval numbers are absurdly low and failing to improve.

I highly question that. Your posting history says otherwise.

And you're clearly making things up now. Show me one post where I've supported anything Trump ever said or did.

On the other hand, here are some threads I started on Trump:

Criminal charges against Trump

Mocking Trump's schooling


Mocking his family

Why Trump is worse than Hitler


Mocking Trump's reading skills

Seriously, your idea that I'm in some way supporting Trump is completely insane. Next time, actually read my posts before deciding what you think they say.

Those who are calling him senile have their own reasons for doing so, mainly political. It's mostly Republicans and far left extremists with a Debbie Downer attitude for anything/anyone not as far left as they are. I don't see many Dems calling him senile except those with a personal agenda or, frankly, have an affinity for stirring the pot or being contrary.

Yeah, right.

Biden makes himself look senile - he doesn't need anyone to make him look bad.

62% of Americans believe Biden is mentally unfit to be president. Hell of a lot of Debby Downers in America as well as a heap of outright morons I guess.

The whole blame lies with the Democrats for not having a successor.

 

[Puppycow]

I’m starting to see a pattern here for Democrats. They are hurting themselves politically because they are stubborn about retiring due to old age, and complacent voters are OK with that.

Example 1: Roe v Wade is gone because RBG didn’t retire when she had the chance.

Examples 2: Ted Kennedy and Diane Feinstein

Example 3: We just might get another 4 years of Trump because Biden didn’t know when to hang it up and complacent democratic primary voters rubber stamped it. And it’s probably going to be worse than the first Trump term. It’ll be Trump without the training wheels and without any adults to constrain his worst impulses.

 

[Hercules56]

If the bad polls continue I expect pressure will build on Biden to withdraw and he might just do it.

Lots of younger Dem governors out there who can do the job AND not look like a severally flawed geriatric on the debate stage with Trump.

 

[Hercules56]

I’m starting to see a pattern here for Democrats. They are hurting themselves politically because they are stubborn about retiring due to old age, and complacent voters are OK with that.

Example 1: Roe v Wade is gone because RBG didn’t retire when she had the chance.

Examples 2: Ted Kennedy and Diane Feinstein

Example 3: We just might get another 4 years of Trump because Biden didn’t know when to hang it up and complacent democratic primary voters rubber stamped it. And it’s probably going to be worse than the first Trump term. It’ll be Trump without the training wheels and without any adults to constrain his worst impulses.

Feinstein, RBG, Kennedy. You may have a point there.

 

[Tero]

I’m starting to see a pattern here for Democrats. They are hurting themselves politically because they are stubborn about retiring due to old age, and complacent voters are OK with that.

Example 1: Roe v Wade is gone because RBG didn’t retire when she had the chance.

Examples 2: Ted Kennedy and Diane Feinstein

Example 3: We just might get another 4 years of Trump because Biden didn’t know when to hang it up and complacent democratic primary voters rubber stamped it. And it’s probably going to be worse than the first Trump term. It’ll be Trump without the training wheels and without any adults to constrain his worst impulses.

The presidency is a bit different from the rest. Most candidates can last two terms and likely Biden will . But he is not the only president with this being a major item in voters' mind. Reagan was. He was badly senile and was only able to go thru the second campaign by being a good actor. He read the teleprompter or a speech off a sheet of paper. The second term was run mainly by Nancy Reagan's psychic.

 

[Delvo]

I'm still annoyed that no serious alternative to Biden has stepped up.

A Democratic governor, or senator, under the age of 70 and with no major disqualifying problems. Anyone?? Time's running out. There are deadlines coming up I think for getting on the ballot in certain states.

They've all seen what the party machine does to anyone who opposes it. The problem isn't the lack of people to take the spotlight against Biden. It's that the show is really run by the background people we don't see doing it, and they're still stuck on Biden. (I'd say they were "in the shadows" because it fits the spotlight/show analogy, but it sounds too dramatic. ) And they'll never admit that his problems are problems because they have the same problems themselves.

I do not consider RFK Jr. or Marianne Williamson to be serious alternatives, especially the former. He's just a crank who appeals more to the right than the left.

He's left the party now, so he can't affect the party's primary/caucus process. And having him in the general election probably helps Biden by hurting both him and Trump but hurting Trump more.

And she's been getting over 10% support, which is doing spectacularly well for someone with 0% of the press coverage or access to party infrastructure that she's supposed to get. But the fact that the party machine can have that effect by freezing out whoever they decide not to let people take seriously is the perfect example of the problem. The party is run by bidens (lowercase) and has decided that it will do whatever it takes to deny anybody else even the slightest opportunity. And the other people who would be candidates know this.

We just might get another 4 years of Trump because Biden didn’t know when to hang it up and complacent democratic primary voters rubber stamped it.

We are definitely heading for another Trump "presidency", but the Democratic voters aren't being given any other choice by the party. It's the party politicians who've been refuse to let the voters have any choices.

If the bad polls continue I expect pressure will build on Biden to withdraw and he might just do it.

This looks to me like vastly underestimating both Biden's own personal compulsion to have this and the party's responsiveness to an oncoming predictable loss (which they've never done anything to avoid before in the last decade or two).

Lots of younger Dem governors out there who can do the job AND not look like a severally flawed geriatric on the debate stage with Trump.

If Biden were to quit or die, it would be Gavin. He's already been getting Presidential-candidate-like press coverage which they describe as "positioning himself" for a run for President, and Kamala has even scarier poll results than Biden but without Biden's "everybody in power in this party just happens to be just like me" factor. And the only way Gavin has said he's not running has been as an opponent to Biden, which means carefully not denying that he'd run if Biden were out. He's like DeSantis, just waiting in the background for the guy in front to get out of his way.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

In the week before the 2016 election, the top 13 polls had Clinton winning in all but one.

As can be seen in your link, the RCP average had Clinton up by 3.2%.

Clinton won by 2.1%, so the polls were awfully close to the final result.

That's the popular vote that Clinton won. National polls predict the popular vote. As the 2016 election reminded us, winning the popular vote is not the same as winning the Electoral College.

The recent poll that kicked off this discussion is alarming precisely because it is not a national poll, but a poll of the swing states that were critical for Biden's 2020 victory in the Electoral College.

Nate Silver weighs polls by reliability to try to give the most accurate picture.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Although fivethirtyeight.com does indeed weight polls by assessed reliability, and that process began under the direction of Nate Silver, Nate Silver is no longer associated with fivethirtyeight.com.

 

[lobosrul5]

I’m starting to see a pattern here for Democrats. They are hurting themselves politically because they are stubborn about retiring due to old age, and complacent voters are OK with that.

Example 1: Roe v Wade is gone because RBG didn’t retire when she had the chance.
Examples 2: Ted Kennedy and Diane Feinstein

Example 3: We just might get another 4 years of Trump because Biden didn’t know when to hang it up and complacent democratic primary voters rubber stamped it. And it’s probably going to be worse than the first Trump term. It’ll be Trump without the training wheels and without any adults to constrain his worst impulses.

The numbers don't quite add up as Dobbs v Jackson was a 6-3 vote. Unless you are making the case that Roberts would've voted the other way had their been a 4th liberal justice on the court. That seems unlikely to me.

ETA: we know Harris does worse than Biden in polling against Trump, despite the fact she is much younger. I haven't seen much in the way of Newsom v Trump. We don't know that there are any other candidates out there that would perform better than Biden in an election versus Trump. There is no logical reason for anyone to pick Trump over Biden simply due to age. Then again, voters aren't always logical.

 

[Brainster]

I'm still annoyed that no serious alternative to Biden has stepped up.

A Democratic governor, or senator, under the age of 70 and with no major disqualifying problems. Anyone?? Time's running out. There are deadlines coming up I think for getting on the ballot in certain states.

Delvo's right. The word has gone out that anybody challenging Biden is persona non grata. The concern is that they'll end up like Ted Kennedy in 1980, wounding the President and setting him up for defeat in the general election. Of course, one could wonder if the real lesson of 1980 that a President weak enough to attract a serious challenger inside his party is doomed to lose in November.

BTW, one of the poll results had Trump losing to a "generic" (unnamed) Democrat by 8 points. Of course, there's no such thing as a generic Democrat; all of them have strengths and weaknesses. But I do think Trump would have a tougher time against Gavin Newsom or a Phil Murphy.

Still, at this point the only way Biden's getting out of the race is if he croaks.

 

[Resume]

If you're gonna switch horses, you better pick the right horse. The election is a year and several convictions away yet, and if the dems are to switch candidates, they need evidence that the switch is legit. Another trump presidency will fully seal the notion that he will do all the things people claim he can't wouldn't shouldn't do.

Remember that time when he tried to steal your vote, claiming you were dead, illegal and voted twice? Yeah, so do I.

 

[lobosrul5]

If you're gonna switch horses, you better pick the right horse. The election is a year and several convictions away yet, and if the dems are to switch candidates, they need evidence that the switch is legit. Another trump presidency will fully seal the notion that he will do all the things people claim he can't wouldn't shouldn't do.

Remember that time when he tried to steal your vote, claiming you were dead, illegal and voted twice? Yeah, so do I.

It is a sign to me, that we are truly in bizarro world, beardy Spock mirror universe, times that it just doesn't seem like that many people really care all that much that he tried to steal their vote and subvert democracy. We should, as a nation, be WAY WAY WAY angrier IMO.

 

[ZiprHead]

Delvo's right. The word has gone out that anybody challenging Biden is persona non grata. The concern is that they'll end up like Ted Kennedy in 1980, wounding the President and setting him up for defeat in the general election. Of course, one could wonder if the real lesson of 1980 that a President weak enough to attract a serious challenger inside his party is doomed to lose in November.

When and where did this "word" go out, and what did the "word" say?

BTW, one of the poll results had Trump losing to a "generic" (unnamed) Democrat by 8 points. Of course, there's no such thing as a generic Democrat; all of them have strengths and weaknesses. But I do think Trump would have a tougher time against Gavin Newsom or a Phil Murphy.

Still, at this point the only way Biden's getting out of the race is if he croaks.

Generic candidates have no baggage and no platform or record to critique. They're literally a figment of the imagination so they can have any atributes that can be imagined. The one thing they cannot do is actually run in the election.

And who the hell is Phil Murphy???

 

[The Atheist]

And it’s probably going to be worse than the first Trump term. It’ll be Trump without the training wheels and without any adults to constrain his worst impulses.

I think "probably" is a bit mild.

If he gets that desk in the White House back, the serious **** will start from day 1.

Although fivethirtyeight.com does indeed weight polls by assessed reliability, and that process began under the direction of Nate Silver, Nate Silver is no longer associated with fivethirtyeight.com.

Yes, I'm aware of that disappointing development.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Folks, friends, fellow lovers, I’ve said it once or twice or 30 times. There is no perfect candidate, there are only those who’ve revealed their weaknesses and those whose weaknesses we’ve yet to discover. Biden’s weaknesses don’t matter, because the imaginary “better candidate” to go up against Trump will have flaws a’plenty.

And whether it’s Biden, candidate X, or the last McDonalds cheeseburger sold in Iceland, I will always pick Not Trump. The rest is just crumbs.

 

[Dr. Keith]

When and where did this "word" go out, and what did the "word" say?

Didn’t the party have a written policy that they would black list any vendor who helped a candidate who tried to primary an incumbent in the last election? That seems a pretty clear word.

Generic candidates have no baggage and no platform or record to critique. They're literally a figment of the imagination so they can have any atributes that can be imagined. The one thing they cannot do is actually run in the election.

And who the hell is Phil Murphy???

I had a conference call with Phil Murphy yesterday, but I don’t think it’s the same guy.

 

[Cain]

The election is a year away. I'd still guess Biden has a better chance of winning than Trump, but this is like Clinton lamenting she's only ahead by a few points when she should be up by 50. Trump and the Republicans are criticizing Biden every day. The Democrats are keeping their powder dry on Trump because they want him to be the nominee. He's the weakest Republican opponent. After Trump is coronated, the criticisms will be unrelenting. A bottomless pit of money will blanket the landscape with ads. He staged a coup. He was convicted. He cheats in business and in politics. He's lied about losing elections since Iowa in 2016. Here's John Kelly, Bill Barr, Liz Cheney, Dick Cheney, John Bolton, and a list of Republicans who say he's dangerous, dumb, and incompetent. "This time there will be no adults in the room" blah blah blah.

Yes, Trump could win. He has always over-performed relative to the general election opinion polls. In terms of swinging the Electoral College, the election was closer in 2020 than 2016. If only 22,000 Biden supporters in three states flipped to Trump, Cheeto Von Tweeto would have remained in office. In terms of the debates, I expect at least one will happen. Everybody says the best way to defeat Biden is to just let him talk, but Trump can't help himself.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I’m starting to see a pattern here for Democrats. They are hurting themselves politically because they are stubborn about retiring due to old age, and complacent voters are OK with that.

Example 1: Roe v Wade is gone because RBG didn’t retire when she had the chance.

Examples 2: Ted Kennedy and Diane Feinstein

Example 3: We just might get another 4 years of Trump because Biden didn’t know when to hang it up and complacent democratic primary voters rubber stamped it. And it’s probably going to be worse than the first Trump term. It’ll be Trump without the training wheels and without any adults to constrain his worst impulses.

And how about McConnell not retiring?? His staff covers up for his brain damage by whisking him away.

It's a human trait, not a politically influenced trait.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I’m starting to see a pattern here for Democrats. They are hurting themselves politically because they are stubborn about retiring due to old age, and complacent voters are OK with that.

Example 1: Roe v Wade is gone because RBG didn’t retire when she had the chance.

Examples 2: Ted Kennedy and Diane Feinstein

Example 3: We just might get another 4 years of Trump because Biden didn’t know when to hang it up and complacent democratic primary voters rubber stamped it. And it’s probably going to be worse than the first Trump term. It’ll be Trump without the training wheels and without any adults to constrain his worst impulses.

And how about McConnell not retiring?? His staff covers up for his brain damage by whisking him away.

And I'm not convinced Trump isn't slipping away with senility plus his mental illness plus the stress he's under. The news media's narratives are influencing people's perceptions. Just wait until Trump blows his top over being outed as a dishonest crook in his NY case.

It's a human trait, not a politically influenced trait.

 

[lobosrul5]

And how about McConnell not retiring?? His staff covers up for his brain damage by whisking him away.

It's a human trait, not a politically influenced trait.

The rules that apply to the Democrats do not apply to the GoP. One is a cult, the other needs a broad coalition of reasonable minded people to vote for them to win.

It is without a doubt, not fair.