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Merged 2024 Election Thread

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Aridas said:
With an argument like that, one sorta has to wonder whether you are intent upon claiming that coups and autocoups are simply impossible or trying to argue that we should be assuming that they're effectively impossible. "It Can't Happen Here!"

It also looks like it's little more than an attempted diversion and distraction from the issues of legitimacy, because you really have nothing to stand on when it comes to the things that were actually raised. Hence the attempted appeal to some magical invulnerability and incorruptability of the system. Hence the attempted dismissal as fantasy of the hypothetical that illustrated the nature of what you actually argued and why it's problematic, rather than actually dealing with such.

Also, "Constitution, so shut up" makes for a pretty terrible argument when you've shown yourself perfectly willing to utterly ignore the Constitution when it suits you.
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When have I utterly ignored the Constitution?
 
Hercules56 said:
When have I utterly ignored the Constitution?
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The easy example is that you were quite trying in the 14th Amendment thread. There are issues that can be raised, certainly, but much of what you've tried to use in that thread has been nothing more than or has been on par with "I don't like it, so the Constitution doesn't matter."
 
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Aridas said:
The easy example is that you were quite trying in the 14th Amendment thread. There are issues that can be raised, certainly, but much of what you've tried to use in that thread has been nothing more than or has been on par with "I don't like it, so the Constitution doesn't matter."
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Ah!!!!

So you made it up.

I have never called for the 14th Amendment to be ignored.
 
zorro99 said:
Haley 47%, Biden 42%
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Did you look at what that question asked? Or at the rest of the answers on that line? 11% didn't choose either one.

If you throw Kennedy, West, Stein, and others into the mix Biden gets 36 and Haley, 29.

Opinion of Haley:
Fav 28; Unfav 43; and don't know enough 28

And so on.

The point is the classic use of poll numbers in this thread demonstrates how one has to look at the whole poll and especially the whole poll question one pulled the numbers from.
 
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Tero said:
Biden 50%, Trump 44%
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01312024_regvoter_uhdw14.pdf
but..it's just a poll.
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zorro99 said:
Haley 47%, Biden 42%
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Looks like that is in a head-to-head, but if Kennedy is there then Biden wins, so while Kennedy is taking some Democratic votes, clearly he is taking more from Republicans and Trump voters if Trump is not there.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Skeptic Ginger said:
Thanks for the link. There is a lot of survey data there. Doesn't look like opinions have changed much over time.

For anyone who is curious that is from the Quinnipiac University.
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Have you suddenly changed your opinion on polls? ;)

That's okay, I do that with the fortune papers at the shrine at New Year. "Bad luck"?!? Pah, I don't believe in this superstitious nonsense! "Very Good Luck"!! Oooh, well maybe 120,000,000 Japanese people can't be wrong!
 
angrysoba said:
... Have you suddenly changed your opinion on polls? ;)
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Not at all. In fact @Tero's link supports my POV about the poll numbers thrown around in this thread.

See my post above:
SG said:
The point is the classic use of poll numbers in this thread demonstrates how one has to look at the whole poll and especially the whole poll question one pulled the numbers from.
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That’s my fear. As before, Biden can beat Trump. Then, with his excellent administration, continue along a pretty solid path for several years. Bonus points if he gets a Democratic congress.

But if for whatever reason(s) Trump doesn’t make it to the gate and is replaced by Haley, Biden’s chief selling point in many people’s eyes - he isn’t Trump! - disappears and his negatives (again, in many people’s eyes) become harder to dismiss. Plus, her youth and gender (a vote for history!) and lack of a prominent record make her a very tempting option. Of course, the unknown is how much of Trump’s wrecking crew would simply hop from his train to hers, making for a Trojan horse occupation of the Oval, her desire/intent or no.

In the words of the Amity Island pharmacist: “You’re gonna need a bigger bottle of Pepto.”
 
Regnad Kcin said:
That’s my fear. As before, Biden can beat Trump. Then, with his excellent administration, continue along a pretty solid path for several years. Bonus points if he gets a Democratic congress.

But if for whatever reason(s) Trump doesn’t make it to the gate and is replaced by Haley, Biden’s chief selling point in many people’s eyes - he isn’t Trump! - disappears and his negatives (again, in many people’s eyes) become harder to dismiss. Plus, her youth and gender (a vote for history!) and lack of a prominent record make her a very tempting option. Of course, the unknown is how much of Trump’s wrecking crew would simply hop from his train to hers, making for a Trojan horse occupation of the Oval, her desire/intent or no.

In the words of the Amity Island pharmacist: “You’re gonna need a bigger bottle of Pepto.”
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Trump's legal issues are growing by the day. Not sure if Haley can overcome Trump's lead but it is possible.

As to whether or not she can win in a race against Biden there are way too many variables and too much time to start worrying about that now. I will say in that Quinnipiac poll there was a large contingent of voters who answered they didn't know enough about Haley. That's one of the more important variables at this point.


ETA: Another important variable, Haley does not have Trump's cult following and I don't see she has the personality to grow one.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Not at all. In fact @Tero's link supports my POV about the poll numbers thrown around in this thread.

See my post above:
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The point is the classic use of poll numbers in this thread demonstrates how one has to look at the whole poll and especially the whole poll question one pulled the numbers from.
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Previously you linked to articles claiming "political polling is no more than statistical sophistry"

You have been endlessly dismissing them as meaningless, not making a much more reasonable claim that they need to be carefully interpreted.

Now, here is a way of interpreting the polls that are a bit worrying. If, in a head to head, Haley beats Biden, but when Kennedy and others are included, Biden inches ahead, the problem is that the electoral college votes are still only going to be distributed among Haley and Biden in all likelihood. In which case, the Kennedy vote does not necessarily make a difference and you would have to look at state-by-state results to see how each poll would come out before we can know whether Biden would win the general.

Nevertheless, the polling is looking somewhat better for Biden which is a good thing.
 
Regnad Kcin said:
That’s my fear. As before, Biden can beat Trump. Then, with his excellent administration, continue along a pretty solid path for several years. Bonus points if he gets a Democratic congress.

But if for whatever reason(s) Trump doesn’t make it to the gate and is replaced by Haley, Biden’s chief selling point in many people’s eyes - he isn’t Trump! - disappears and his negatives (again, in many people’s eyes) become harder to dismiss. Plus, her youth and gender (a vote for history!) and lack of a prominent record make her a very tempting option. Of course, the unknown is how much of Trump’s wrecking crew would simply hop from his train to hers, making for a Trojan horse occupation of the Oval, her desire/intent or no.

In the words of the Amity Island pharmacist: “You’re gonna need a bigger bottle of Pepto Valium.”
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FTFY
 
I watched 15 minutes of Trump's Nevada campaign speach. The crowd was in rapture. It was a sequence of his greatest, fact free, hits. He'd fix everything, get rid of the communists, cut taxes, close the border, end the war in Ukraine and on and on. The second coming. Scary and strangely charismatic.
 
marting said:
I watched 15 minutes of Trump's Nevada campaign speach. The crowd was in rapture. It was a sequence of his greatest, fact free, hits. He'd fix everything, get rid of the communists, cut taxes, close the border, end the war in Ukraine and on and on. The second coming. Scary and strangely charismatic.
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Donald Gantry

 
angrysoba said:
Previously you linked to articles claiming "political polling is no more than statistical sophistry"

You have been endlessly dismissing them as meaningless, not making a much more reasonable claim that they need to be carefully interpreted.

Now, here is a way of interpreting the polls that are a bit worrying. If, in a head to head, Haley beats Biden, but when Kennedy and others are included, Biden inches ahead, the problem is that the electoral college votes are still only going to be distributed among Haley and Biden in all likelihood. In which case, the Kennedy vote does not necessarily make a difference and you would have to look at state-by-state results to see how each poll would come out before we can know whether Biden would win the general.

Nevertheless, the polling is looking somewhat better for Biden which is a good thing.
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Oh for pity's sake. :rolleyes:

You can try to twist my POV all you want.

I was clear in my posts above. Try rereading them instead of posting this nonsense.
 
marting said:
I watched 15 minutes of Trump's Nevada campaign speach. The crowd was in rapture. It was a sequence of his greatest, fact free, hits. He'd fix everything, get rid of the communists, cut taxes, close the border, end the war in Ukraine and on and on. The second coming. Scary and strangely charismatic.
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Anyone know if these events are free to attend? it would be cool to say in 20 years that "I once went to a Trump rally."

One of the many perks of living in Florida is that elections are always close. This means that we get visited by every politician running for President.

The first time I saw Trump was when he was campaigning about 2 miles from my house in October 2016. I rode my bike there and was met with a pretty un-diverse crowd. About 99% were white men and women with a few token black people to make it look more diverse on camera. He was about 90 minutes late but there was no loss of enthusiasm. When he did arrive, it was like a rock star was there. Lots of cheering, flag waving, chants of USA (this never makes sense as the other party is American as well). His speech was light but had lots of other chants of “lock her up” and “build that wall”.
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https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-a...Trump-rally-What-does-one-get-for-their-money
 
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