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2018 mid-term election

Trebuchet

Penultimate Amazing
Joined
Nov 20, 2003
Messages
43,815
Location
Port Townsend, Washington
Time for a general thread, I suppose.

Today is primary election day here The Other Washington. (Or, for you Ozzies, the other WA). The ballot was pretty boring, other than having 29(!) candidates for US Senate. Most interesting race in the state is for the eighth Congressional district, which has always been Republican but may flip. I started a thread on that one a few days ago, because the Dems are running more against Trump and the probable R than against each other.

What's happening this year in your state?
 
Here in Missouri we have U.S. Senate primaries to set up the expected McCaskill (D-incumbent) v. Hawley (R-State AG) fight that will get a lot of attention come November.

The major issue is Prop A, a referendum on a right-to-work bill passed by the legislature that has seen a lot of outside money flooding in as the latest battleground on the national battle over labor rights.

Kansas has tons of stuff going on too unimportant to mention. There's some drama around the governorship and other executive positions as fallout from the Brownback administration continues.
 
In the 2018 mid-terms, the state of West Virginia will finally get some national political attention.

One of our senators is a Democrat who is up for re-election this year (Joe Manchin) and the Republicans are hoping to flip that seat. As part of the effort, Trump has visited West Virginia three times now to push Republican themes and a few of his own themes.

So anyway, one can expect West Virginia to be in the national news one way or the other come November, 2018.
 
Here in California, Prop 6, to repeal the gas tax and require future increases to be on a ballot, is the big one for voters. In fact, it could decide which party controls the House.
A yes vote supports this initiative to:
repeal fuel tax increases and vehicle fees that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (RRAA) and
require voter approval (via ballot propositions) for the California State Legislature to impose, increase, or extend fuel taxes or vehicle fees in the future.

Californians have been big fans, across all political lines, of controlling the ability of Sacramento to impose taxes and fees and move billions around without voter approval. This could be a hard sell for Democrats who support keeping the tax but aim to keep all their seats and take 7 more from Republicans. Republicans threw all their campaign money into getting it on the ballot. It's that important.

State revenue is up, exceeding expectations by a few billion a month and creating a surplus. Does that help Democrats because they were in charge? or hurt them if they argue for keeping the tax?? idk, we'll see.

With 53 congressional seats in California (38D-14R-1vacant), control of the House of Representatives could come down to the price of gas leading up to election day.
 
In Arizona, the attention is all on the race to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake. We still have the primary to come three weeks from today. Martha McSally still holds the lead over Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio, but lately a George Soros-funded group has been running ads against her, as has another group which has ties to the Democrats. Kyrsten Sinema seems to have the Democratic nomination wrapped up.

The biggest ballot measure is a ban on increasing or imposing taxes on services. The Arizona Republic has been pushing a services tax for years; it's the old "broaden the base to decrease the rate" wheeze; in my experience governments are happy to broaden the base, but seem reluctant to follow through with the decrease the rate part.
 
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I'm curious, in general, to see if opinion polling will get its groove/respect back and how, if at all, the media and

Yeah I know that all the polls gave Trump a "chance" at winning and so didn't lie and like Trump's victory didn't... break the concept of polling technically but with pretty much everybody kinda treating Hillary as a done deal (hell we had one poster here who spent the last week or so of the campaign pretty much just ranting and raving at Nate Silver for giving Trump such good odds and even he only gave Trump a "maybe long shot if a miracle happens" chance) and with near constant opinion polling being such a core part of our insanely long campaign/news cycle... it will be interesting to watch.

If nothing else the fact that the polls were all so strongly against Trump is gonna be brought up... a lot.
 
It was mentioned this morning on the TeeVee that Trump has endorsed Kobach over Brownback.
Did the TeeVee mention that Brownback is not running for office and has not been govenor of Kansas since January when he was confirmed as U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom, a position he was nominated for by Donald Trump?
 
Dems are running more against Trump...

Right. And it is a huge mistake. It's four years now of anti-Trump hysteria, all of which has failed, and which has produced record distrust in the media.

The NDAA in 2012 allowed the CIA and other alphabet soup agencies to produce/pay for domestic propaganda. Their tentacles are everywhere: in entertainment, news, movies, etc. A list of over 400 movies the defense department was involved with has been released recently. They're running candidates now.

In the 1960's as I grew up the Democrats were the Anti-war party, the party of Labor, progressive on gay rights - some really visible, understandable principles you can run an election on. But they've been corrupted.

The black-bag military and domestic police/war/spy agency operations have trillions of $ in resources all over the world at their command. You take control of the resources by bribing or extorting the leadership. All you need then is control of US ports, and ideally you want them run by foreigners with zero allegiance to the country. Like, say the UAE, officially an Islamic State. That's six US ports. What could go wrong, other than a lot of dead Americans, dead Afghanis, dead Pakistanis, dead Syrians, dead Iraqis, dead Yemenis, etc.

Once you control opium production in Afghanistan, shipment to Pakistan for processing, and then by diplomatic "pouch" (ocean container) to the USA to kill people by overdose of Fentanyl, you don't need taxpayer money. Once you are in control of weapons distribution to ISIS, you have all the stunningly beautiful whores and Chivas Regal you'll ever need.

The problem for the billionaires and deep state is that there are elections where people vote every now and then. When new people come in they have to either already be on board with the war crimes and drug money or Brownstone operations need to be set up for them. Get them filmed having sex with the beautiful hooker you sent in or the little boy.

It is bizarre with Trump in that he clearly aligns with the Military-Industrial-Security complex as it pertains to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni crazies. Yet, he is so utterly loathed, so there is some big piece of this complex that Trump threatens. It seems to me this piece is mostly about nationalism vs globalism.

To run against Trump puts you on the side of the globalists. Trump ran on an "America First" platform while in fact pursuing an Israel First foreign policy, but nevertheless Trump means nationalism. Israeli nationalism mostly, but again it is perception that counts.

America is the wrong thing to be running against. You need to run FOR values that resonate with voters. Not a person, but values. Most elections are about the economy. Trump has stats you just cannot deny with unemployment and growth. It doesn't matter whether he can take credit for it or not, what is important is the unemployment rate and money in family wallets come election eve. It's the economy, stupid.

We learned in the 2016 how much of the election-related industries of polling and analysis has been completely compromised and is untrustworthy. The night of the 2016 race I watched the odds of Hillary winning go from 95% to the exact opposite prediction of 95% Trump from one screen to the next. That wasn't bad guessing. I'm trained in statistics. For more than a year Democrats were purposefully oversampled by polling firms. It was a huge red flag to me about the industry.

Their playbook appears to be the same in all the major respects so we should expect biased polls and analysts predicting blue as a means to herd voters. People want to feel like they're in the herd, and that's why the strategy of "racist, sexist, homophobe, label label label" worked well for years. Having Hollywood stars high on cocaine and booze, fresh from sex with a 12 year old make virtue-signalling noises for people supporting CIA drug and weapons operations.

The legacy media is controlled by a club that, in the words of George Carlin, you and me ain't in. Their agenda is so vastly different from what is portrayed by them.

Globalism isn't about black and white people holding hands and singing. It is about corporations being put in charge of who you can buy a pair of socks from. It's about blowing up babies for Raytheon.

Check out Jimmy Dore's show back in March on CIA running as democrats and a number of articles many have done since then. Dore is a hard core liberal, he isn't a Trumpist.

I don't want to pose Trump as the anti-deep state candidate because he is clearly all-in with the Middle East part of their program, and other places too. He's just not with their European plans and world trade agreements.

It is a huge problem for Democrats when the battle is really about weapons and drug rat-lines, MIC plunder, and globalism. Because then you need this giant noise machine producing fake reasons to be against anything perceived as "Trump". You need fake news, fake polls, fake analysis, and fake support from movie stars, etc. You need control over social media platforms so you can censor.

According to advertising spending patterns, congressional Democrats are hitting health care as their largest issue. Their second largest advertisement is jobs and the economy, so they're running on Trump.

Republicans are running on Trump, Trump, and Trump:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/07/2018-election-exclusive-health-care-trump-dominate-political-ads-senate-races/914978002/

Trump directly, the Trump tax cut, and Trump immigration.

This is very unusual in mid-term elections. Voters usually go against the president's party in midterms. So the congressman of the party in power distance themselves from the president.

When Trump ran for office, the entire Republican establishment was against him. Now look. A lot of people have learned not to bet against Trump.

It is important to see that the Democtatic leadership nationally is still full-on Trump Derangement Syndrome. But the people actually producing the advertising for congressional campaigns are going with health care and the Trump economy.

When we drill down on the Health Care ads, its pretty lame. Protecting people with pre-existing conditions. Neither party can claim moral high ground on health care. Obama brought in a baby with severe birth defects while Trump and the republicans didn't do repeal and replace.

Ironically, Democrats are also taking out ads against corruption in government. Because it looks like Trump is waiting for maximum electoral impact to release the juiciest redacted/withheld FBI documents. It's going to be shooting themselves in the foot.
 
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Right. And it is a huge mistake. It's four years now of anti-Trump hysteria, all of which has failed, and which has produced record distrust in the media.

The NDAA in 2012 allowed the CIA and other alphabet soup agencies to produce/pay for domestic propaganda. Their tentacles are everywhere: in entertainment, news, movies, etc. A list of over 400 movies the defense department was involved with has been released recently. They're running candidates now.

In the 1960's as I grew up the Democrats were the Anti-war party, the party of Labor, progressive on gay rights - some really visible, understandable principles you can run an election on. But they've been corrupted.

The black-bag military and domestic police/war/spy agency operations have trillions of $ in resources all over the world at their command. You take control of the resources by bribing or extorting the leadership. All you need then is control of US ports, and ideally you want them run by foreigners with zero allegiance to the country. Like, say the UAE, officially an Islamic State. That's six US ports. What could go wrong, other than a lot of dead Americans, dead Afghanis, dead Pakistanis, dead Syrians, dead Iraqis, dead Yemenis, etc.

Once you control opium production in Afghanistan, shipment to Pakistan for processing, and then by diplomatic "pouch" (ocean container) to the USA to kill people by overdose of Fentanyl, you don't need taxpayer money. Once you are in control of weapons distribution to ISIS, you have all the stunningly beautiful whores and Chivas Regal you'll ever need.

The problem for the billionaires and deep state is that there are elections where people vote every now and then. When new people come in they have to either already be on board with the war crimes and drug money or Brownstone operations need to be set up for them. Get them filmed having sex with the beautiful hooker you sent in or the little boy.

It is bizarre with Trump in that he clearly aligns with the Military-Industrial-Security complex as it pertains to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni crazies. Yet, he is so utterly loathed, so there is some big piece of this complex that Trump threatens. It seems to me this piece is mostly about nationalism vs globalism.

To run against Trump puts you on the side of the globalists. Trump ran on an "America First" platform while in fact pursuing an Israel First foreign policy, but nevertheless Trump means nationalism. Israeli nationalism mostly, but again it is perception that counts.

America is the wrong thing to be running against. You need to run FOR values that resonate with voters. Not a person, but values. Most elections are about the economy. Trump has stats you just cannot deny with unemployment and growth. It doesn't matter whether he can take credit for it or not, what is important is the unemployment rate and money in family wallets come election eve. It's the economy, stupid.

We learned in the 2016 how much of the election-related industries of polling and analysis has been completely compromised and is untrustworthy. The night of the 2016 race I watched the odds of Hillary winning go from 95% to the exact opposite prediction of 95% Trump from one screen to the next. That wasn't bad guessing. I'm trained in statistics. For more than a year Democrats were purposefully oversampled by polling firms. It was a huge red flag to me about the industry.

Their playbook appears to be the same in all the major respects so we should expect biased polls and analysts predicting blue as a means to herd voters. People want to feel like they're in the herd, and that's why the strategy of "racist, sexist, homophobe, label label label" worked well for years. Having Hollywood stars high on cocaine and booze, fresh from sex with a 12 year old make virtue-signalling noises for people supporting CIA drug and weapons operations.

The legacy media is controlled by a club that, in the words of George Carlin, you and me ain't in. Their agenda is so vastly different from what is portrayed by them.

Globalism isn't about black and white people holding hands and singing. It is about corporations being put in charge of who you can buy a pair of socks from. It's about blowing up babies for Raytheon.

Check out Jimmy Dore's show back in March on CIA running as democrats and a number of articles many have done since then. Dore is a hard core liberal, he isn't a Trumpist.

I don't want to pose Trump as the anti-deep state candidate because he is clearly all-in with the Middle East part of their program, and other places too. He's just not with their European plans and world trade agreements.

It is a huge problem for Democrats when the battle is really about weapons and drug rat-lines, MIC plunder, and globalism. Because then you need this giant noise machine producing fake reasons to be against anything perceived as "Trump". You need fake news, fake polls, fake analysis, and fake support from movie stars, etc. You need control over social media platforms so you can censor.

According to advertising spending patterns, congressional Democrats are hitting health care as their largest issue. Their second largest advertisement is jobs and the economy, so they're running on Trump.

Republicans are running on Trump, Trump, and Trump:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/07/2018-election-exclusive-health-care-trump-dominate-political-ads-senate-races/914978002/

Trump directly, the Trump tax cut, and Trump immigration.

This is very unusual in mid-term elections. Voters usually go against the president's party in midterms. So the congressman of the party in power distance themselves from the president.

When Trump ran for office, the entire Republican establishment was against him. Now look. A lot of people have learned not to bet against Trump.

It is important to see that the Democtatic leadership nationally is still full-on Trump Derangement Syndrome. But the people actually producing the advertising for congressional campaigns are going with health care and the Trump economy.

When we drill down on the Health Care ads, its pretty lame. Protecting people with pre-existing conditions. Neither party can claim moral high ground on health care. Obama brought in a baby with severe birth defects while Trump and the republicans didn't do repeal and replace.

Ironically, Democrats are also taking out ads against corruption in government. Because it looks like Trump is waiting for maximum electoral impact to release the juiciest redacted/withheld FBI documents. It's going to be shooting themselves in the foot.

And we hear from the Trump worshipper.
Have fun fighting a non existent "globalist" conspiracy.
And I fine you full scale buying into a cult of personality scary.
it's also amusing he buys into the "Trump is Anti Corporate Power" crap when all Trump's fiscal policies have been huge gifts to corporate America.
All in all, a good example of how Trump supporter seem to be immune to logic and reality. They just refuse to buy anything which clashes with the image of Trump the Savior.
 
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And we hear from the Trump worshipper.
Have fun fighting a non existent "globalist" conspiracy.
And I fine you full scale buying into a cult of personality scary.
it's also amusing he buys into the "Trump is Anti Corporate Power" crap when all Trump's fiscal policies have been huge gifts to corporate America.
All in all, a good example of how Trump supporter seem to be immune to logic and reality. They just refuse to buy anything which clashes with the image of Trump the Savior.

Have you seen what I said in the other thread? Some of this is the X-treme Bernie Bros (for lack of a better term). There seems to be a scary UltraRight/UltraLeft overlap in all of it.

Or he just watches a lot of the Jimmy Dore show.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Jimmy_Dore


tl;dr Jim's still pissed at Hillary for not winning (and providing him with 8 yrs. of material) that he cannot countenance anyone critiquing Trump on his show.

I'll admit that the JD show was kind of a shot in the dark but, as if by magic, it appears ...

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12387078&postcount=9
 
Right. And it is a huge mistake. It's four years now of anti-Trump hysteria, all of which has failed, and which has produced record distrust in the media.
I appreciate that you feel threatened by forces out there. You appear to be making a case that Trump is some savior from your perceived threats. Your thesis is all over the place though.
The NDAA in 2012 allowed the CIA and other alphabet soup agencies to produce/pay for domestic propaganda. Their tentacles are everywhere: in entertainment, news, movies, etc. A list of over 400 movies the defense department was involved with has been released recently. They're running candidates now.
I see no direct link between the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act and movies or candidates. The military has always been involved in movies, e.g. Top Gun. And what candidates? Ex-military, like Eisenhower? And what does any of that have to do with Trump?
In the 1960's as I grew up the Democrats were the Anti-war party, the party of Labor, progressive on gay rights - some really visible, understandable principles you can run an election on. But they've been corrupted.
Dude, the Vietnam war was Johnson's baby.

The black-bag military and domestic police/war/spy agency operations have trillions of $ in resources all over the world at their command. You take control of the resources by bribing or extorting the leadership. All you need then is control of US ports, and ideally you want them run by foreigners with zero allegiance to the country. Like, say the UAE, officially an Islamic State. That's six US ports. What could go wrong, other than a lot of dead Americans, dead Afghanis, dead Pakistanis, dead Syrians, dead Iraqis, dead Yemenis, etc.
Whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?

Once you control opium production in Afghanistan, shipment to Pakistan for processing, and then by diplomatic "pouch" (ocean container) to the USA to kill people by overdose of Fentanyl, you don't need taxpayer money. Once you are in control of weapons distribution to ISIS, you have all the stunningly beautiful whores and Chivas Regal you'll ever need.
Conspiracy Forum thataway>>>>

The problem for the billionaires and deep state is that there are elections where people vote every now and then. When new people come in they have to either already be on board with the war crimes and drug money or Brownstone operations need to be set up for them. Get them filmed having sex with the beautiful hooker you sent in or the little boy.
More conspiratorial conjecture, I see.

It is bizarre with Trump in that he clearly aligns with the Military-Industrial-Security complex as it pertains to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni crazies. Yet, he is so utterly loathed, so there is some big piece of this complex that Trump threatens. It seems to me this piece is mostly about nationalism vs globalism.
You are overcomplicating things. Trump is for Trump. If you think folks are out to get him, you need to make your case. You are inventing or borrowing phantoms, if you don't have facts.
To run against Trump puts you on the side of the globalists. Trump ran on an "America First" platform while in fact pursuing an Israel First foreign policy, but nevertheless Trump means nationalism. Israeli nationalism mostly, but again it is perception that counts.
Who cares about Israel?
America is the wrong thing to be running against. You need to run FOR values that resonate with voters. Not a person, but values. Most elections are about the economy. Trump has stats you just cannot deny with unemployment and growth. It doesn't matter whether he can take credit for it or not, what is important is the unemployment rate and money in family wallets come election eve. It's the economy, stupid.
Tell Trump, he just threw America under the bus when he met with Putin.
<Further anti-globalism stuff shortcutted>

It seems to me you have your mind made up that it is all "globalists" and "anti-globalists", and are trying to shoehorn everything into that to justify Trump and tear in to anyone who opposes him. The world isn't that simple. And Trump is no hero.
 
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Have you seen what I said in the other thread? Some of this is the X-treme Bernie Bros (for lack of a better term). There seems to be a scary UltraRight/UltraLeft overlap in all of it.

I missed your thread , but I did know about Jimmy Dore, whose who attitude I find truly bizarre.
I am reminded of how in the lead up to the Nazi seizure of power, the extreme left often ignored the Nazis to attack the SDP (Social Democratic Party) because the SDP was not radical enough for them.
But then Dore was so over the top in his worship of Bernie that even some Bernie supporters found it extreme.
I think it's a case of extreme Anti Establishmentism. It's like how left and right wing conspiracy kooks often get along well despite differences. The important thing to believe in a conspiracy.
 
I appreciate that you feel threatened by forces out there. You appear to be making a case that Trump is some sailor from your perceived threats. Your thesis is all over the place though.

I see no direct link between the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act and movies or candidates. The military has always been involved in movies, e.g. Top Gun. And what candidates? Ex-military, like Eisenhower? And what does any of that have to do with Trump?

Dude, the Vietnam war was Johnson's baby.


Whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?

Conspiracy Forum thataway>>>>

More conspiratorial conjecture, I see.


You are overcomplicating things. Trump is for Trump. If you think folks are out to get him, you need to make your case. You are inventing or borrowing phantoms, if you don't have facts.

Who cares about Israel?

Tell Trump, he just threw America under the bus when he met with Putin.


It seems to me you have your mind made up that it is all "globalists" and "anti-globalists", and are trying to shoehorn everything into that to justify Trump and tear in to anyone who opposes him. The world isn't that simple. And Trump is no hero.

Well done, though I am sympathetic to Israel (though very critical of Bibi's policies).
And the revelatation that since 2012 the Pentagon helps movie companies occasionally to be really funny, since they have been doing it since the 1920's ("Wings" ..made in 1927...for instancewas shot an an army base in Texas, and used lots of real troops and US Air Corps airplanes.)
 
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Did the TeeVee mention that Brownback is not running for office and has not been govenor of Kansas since January when he was confirmed as U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom, a position he was nominated for by Donald Trump?

No, they did not. They also did not say he was running against Brownback, that was my assumption. He's actually running against the former Lt Governor Jeff Colyer. My bad and thanks for pointing that out.

In the WTF department, "U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom"!!!!
Also, Vermin Supreme is trying to run for Kobach's old job, there being no constitutional requirements for residency or anything else.
 
So anyway, one can expect West Virginia to be in the national news one way or the other come November, 2018.

Great. That means a bunch of candidates bending over backwards to pretend that a dead industry that employed fewer people than Arbys is the lynchpin of the American economy for another year.

I started a thread on that one a few days ago, because the Dems are running more against Trump and the probable R than against each other.

It's hilarious at this point. There's between 5 and 6 political ads per commercial break at times right about now (and let me tell you more than 4 political ads in a row should be legally considered torture under some international law) and every one of them, literally every one of them, uses Trump as their main talking point.

There's one, and I'm not making this up, for one of the GOP candidate for our state's Attorney General that all I know about this person is that she once sued Trump. The ad ends with a, out of nowhere, picture of Hillary Clinton that computer morphs into a picture of the candidate. There is no context for this.

I get I harp on Tribalism a lot, but this is functionally insane.
 
It appears Kansas again manages to make things dirty. Johnson County had to fix their goddamn voting machines last night. ****@!

Now who even knows what could have been.
 
It appears Kansas again manages to make things dirty. Johnson County had to fix their goddamn voting machines last night. ****@!

Now who even knows what could have been.

Don't worry Kris Kobach is overseeing the recount into whether or not he won the GOP nomination for governor.
 

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