For the naysayers-Germany sets solar power record

[mhaze]

Actually Skeptic Ginger was talking about cost framing: "Well about that cost framing, if you leave out the costs of the consequences of global warming you can frame the success one way."

The idiocy contained in the blog posts that you linked to is that they are just about the costs of photovoltaic solar power. Using the same "logic" the high costs of every form of generating power means that every country in the world should stop generating power ! .....

The articles showed that the actions of Germany will have no effect on net world Co2 production.

IMO the costs of photovoltaic solar power in general are not currently worth the benefits, e.g. in CO2 reduction, for the simple reason that it is too inefficient. .....

The problem with heavy investments in a rapidly changing and improving technology actually is "cost". Namely, if (as I would think we could agree) PV shows a 30% improvement in cost effectiveness in 5 years, then the people of Germany have LOST 30% of their 200B euro investment, for nothing.

And I think if we calculate it here and now, that's already happened with them. Likely, far in excess of 30%. That's the case with numerous large scale installations in my area.

 

[DC]

Funny to see how some people are complaining about subsidies for green tech. but they never mention the much larger subsidies most countries have for fossil fuels....

hypocrites

http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=424

 

[Belz...]

I've provided links and evidence showing why the OP article is not at all impressive. Quoting:

Translation: "Like woo-woos, I will not answer your question, as doing so would force me to be impressed at some point in the future."

 

[shadron]

I appreciate the correction. It doesn't change my perspective but it is relevant.

It would seem the argument against alternative energy is twofold, one, there will never be enough and two, it is too expensive. If there are other arguments, feel free to add.

Land used. A common solar density is 11w/m^2, so 22GW amounts to 2 Gm^2 = 2000 km^2. I'd be afraid to compute land costs in Germany on a parcel like that. Consider that optimally catching the sun (tilting the panels thru the day) will require perhaps twice that much land to achieve relatively high output in morning and evening. Thankfully that tilting can be done passively; John Denver built a system in Snowmass demonstrating that 20 years ago.

The idea there will never be enough reminds of the claim they should close the patent office, everything that can be invented has been. We all know how silly that was.

You bet your life.

Re the cost, what is the alternative? Pretending we will never run out of fossil fuels? Go all nuclear because it's cheap and just work on better safeguards? (I'm not against nuclear power but I do think the events in Japan and Chernobyl must be considered.)

OK, let's consider the safeguards required. Chernobyl? Don't use that reactor design (and the USSR did upgrade that design, and it has since been running the bulk of the Russian nuclear power since, without containment. Scary?). In Japan? Get the damned diesels off the ground - in fact, build the whole plant on a bluff built to the specs of, say, the Hoover dam foundation, 120 ft above sea level. And don't forget that the land side of a subduction zone boundary will most assuredly subside somewhat when an earthquake occurs. That's right off the top of my head; no doubt there are better alternatives. Same solution for the station in Nebraska that almost flooded last year. This isn't yet rocket science.

Why not invest in the infrastructure and the R&D of alternative energy? Seems like a no brainer to me.

Money. Days are too short. You lose 10% of power generated when you put it on the grid; keeping sources local is best economically. A transmission line into the desert to maximize sun time will cost 10% in transmission, and will not be carrying any power (that is, generating revenue) 2/3's of the time. That's a bummer for ROI.

Use solar/wind to generate power to be used locally in a rural area? That's great, if somewhat pricey. Feed it back into the grid for 4x the price of power generated in large plants? Not a really good idea, though lots of thoughtful, cash-rich people are happily doing that today.

Remember what I said about that 22GWe earlier - that is a peak reading (very probably), not likely any kind of average, and most certainly not an average over full day cycles.

 

[DC]

Slashdot posted a Reuters article indicating that Germay has set a record as far as solar power production, generating nearly 50% of it's daytime needs last weekend by solar alone:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-climate-germany-solar-idUKBRE84P0FI20120526

Not that this solves all the attendant problems of cloudy days, storage, and transmission, but it does rather strongly indicate that solar is not the pie-in-the-sky impossibility that is so often portrayed.

A "smart" power grid with a variety of local generation devices would seem to be quite possible if only we develop the political will to actually do it.

Considering waht the goals of Germany are, this was to be expected and they still have a very very long way to go. but good to see them going the way this time, and not only talk like in the past

 

[LTC8K6]

23 cents is more than double what I pay though.

 

[mhaze]

23 cents is more than double what I pay though.

It's not 23 cents, it is 0.23 Euro, which is more like 35 cents per kwh.

But haven't you heard? High energy prices are "good".

 

[DC]

It's not 23 cents, it is 0.23 Euro, which is more like 35 cents per kwh.

But haven't you heard? High energy prices are "good".

they are indeed, so we are less wastefull with it.

 

[LTC8K6]

they are indeed, so we are less wastefull with it.

Yeah, I guess if electricity prices tripled, us poor and middle class folks would have to be less wasteful, if we can afford electricity at all.

Al Gore and friends won't be concerned about the price. Maybe we can stay at his giant mansion in the summer heat? I'm sure it will be nice and cool throughout.

Thank goodness solar power remains only a small component of Germany's electricity supply, and will remain a very small component of mine.

 

[DC]

Yeah, I guess if electricity prices tripled, us poor and middle class folks would have to be less wasteful, if we can afford electricity at all.

Al Gore and friends won't be concerned about the price. Maybe we can stay at his giant mansion in the summer heat? I'm sure it will be nice and cool throughout.

Thank goodness solar power remains only a small component of Germany's electricity supply, and will remain a very small component of mine.

there we go again with that Al Gore..... i never ever mentioned him or his movie, i never quote him or anything. but somehow constantly his name gets trown at me. laughable.

we all have to be less wastefull. sure rich people will have less troubles with keeping up their wastefull lifestyles. so what? is that worth wrecking our climate for it? just becuase others do it too? i assumed you are not that dumb. don't tell me im wrong with that.

 

[Fishstick]

It's not 23 cents, it is 0.23 Euro, which is more like 35 cents per kwh.

But haven't you heard? High energy prices are "good".

23 eurocents is around 28 dollarcents around the time of this thread, actually.

 

[LTC8K6]

there we go again with that Al Gore..... i never ever mentioned him or his movie, i never quote him or anything. but somehow constantly his name gets trown at me. laughable.

we all have to be less wastefull. sure rich people will have less troubles with keeping up their wastefull lifestyles. so what? is that worth wrecking our climate for it? just becuase others do it too? i assumed you are not that dumb. don't tell me im wrong with that.

Don't tell me how to live my life or how to spend my money.

Live your own life your own way, and I'll do the same.

When and if solar power makes economic sense, it will become a mainstream source of electricity.

At the moment, it's a bad joke on the world, imo.

 

[DC]

Don't tell me how to live my life or how to spend my money.

Live your own life your own way, and I'll do the same.

When and if solar power makes economic sense, it will become a mainstream source of electricity.

At the moment, it's a bad joke on the world, imo.

whenever you can be a danger to other people you are told how to behave, be it in traffic or how to handle toxic waste etc etc. and so it will be with energy.

 

[Checkmite]

Does solar power have to generate "enough" for absolutely everything? Is using solar power to merely significantly reduce the amount of coal that needs to be burned for instance morally reprehensible or something? What does this all-or-nothing mentality of solar energy detractors stem from?

 

[mhaze]

Don't tell me how to live my life or how to spend my money.

Live your own life your own way, and I'll do the same.

When and if solar power makes economic sense, it will become a mainstream source of electricity.

At the moment, it's a bad joke on the world, imo.

What is your problem? You should report to the twice weekly party meeting for a group discussion on your capitalist-lackey attitudes. Many who have done this have become good comrades of the people's republic. But rest assured - in the absence of that, loyal socialists on the internet tubes will kindly inform you of correct behavior. They know they know more and are wiser than you. It is only needed that you, too, realize this.

Have you ever encountered a truly wacko religious cult? When you first meet them, they do not tell you all of the inner secrets and truthinesses. Only after you've been with them a week or two do they start to reveal these, and then, bit by bit.

The ManBearPig, Al Gore, is like that. They are devout believers in his doctrine, but do not discuss it openly with outsiders. Sort of like the way that certain cults marry the 12, 13 and 14 year olds off to the Profit Leader, but would they ever discuss this openly? Of course not.

 

[DC]

What is your problem? You should report to the twice weekly party meeting for a group discussion on your capitalist-lackey attitudes. Many who have done this have become good comrades of the people's republic. But rest assured - in the absence of that, loyal socialists on the internet tubes will kindly inform you of correct behavior. They know they know more and are wiser than you. It is only needed that you, too, realize this.

Have you ever encountered a truly wacko religious cult? When you first meet them, they do not tell you all of the inner secrets and truthinesses. Only after you've been with them a week or two do they start to reveal these, and then, bit by bit.

The ManBearPig, Al Gore, is like that. They are devout believers in his doctrine, but do not discuss it openly with outsiders. Sort of like the way that certain cults marry the 12, 13 and 14 year olds off to the Profit Leader, but would they ever discuss this openly? Of course not.

yeah there we go again the usual nonsense from the science deniers like you and your fellow creatards

 

[mhaze]

23 eurocents is around 28 dollarcents around the time of this thread, actually.

Wow! That currency is dropping like a wind tower in a Texas hurricane.

Does solar power have to generate "enough" for absolutely everything? Is using solar power to merely significantly reduce the amount of coal that needs to be burned for instance morally reprehensible or something? What does this all-or-nothing mentality of solar energy detractors stem from?

Seems to either indicate a complete misunderstanding of the problems involved, or a reframing and misrepresentation of a group of arguments a-la strawman fashion.

yeah there we go again the usual nonsense from the science deniers like you and your fellow creatards

Let's see, 22Gw for 200B Euros is about 18 Euro/watt, which is $23 dollars per watt, give or take.

I can cite a dozen installations here which cost $8-10/watt for five year ago build costs. But now, with the cheap Chinese PV imports at $1/watt, the book value of these installations has dropped way down. In other words, the people that installed systems at $10/watt and often took out bank loans, have have systems worth about $4/watt plus five years of depreciation. On a 20 year useful life, the residual value is some $3/watt.

So they've lost 7 out of 10 dollars they invested. Lost = wasted.

It would appear this analysis would be far, far worse for the German solar array installation. Even artificially jacking up the cost of electricity does not change that. In other words, the free market wins.

You here who are devout and faithful to the Green Gaia, should wise up and look at these numbers and think them over.

 

[fishbob]

. . . . .
The problem with heavy investments in a rapidly changing and improving technology actually is "cost". Namely, if (as I would think we could agree) PV shows a 30% improvement in cost effectiveness in 5 years, then the people of Germany have LOST 30% of their 200B euro investment, for nothing.

And I think if we calculate it here and now, that's already happened with them. Likely, far in excess of 30%. That's the case with numerous large scale installations in my area.

Somebody has to go first, and great that the Germans have the cash and incentive to do it now.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The articles showed that the actions of Germany will have no effect on net world Co2 production.

That is short term, and short sighted framing. You are of course, welcome to point out the short term effects of investing in PV power.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...When and if solar power makes economic sense, it will become a mainstream source of electricity.

At the moment, it's a bad joke on the world, imo.

Better close the patent office, there's no reason to think innovation could possibly continue.

I'm sorry but I get your attitude here even less than MHaze's, "it's too expensive". Are you saying any R&D investment in solar power is a bad joke?