Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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gnome said:
It is not so difficult if you order a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. I bet they would agree to a cease fire to allow an orderly removal.
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I wouldn't be that trusting of the Russians to leave under those circumstances, personally.
The only 'cease fire' I'd agree to, were I them, would be, "We'll cease fire when the last member of the Russian Federation has departed pre 2014 Ukrainian territory, and not a moment sooner."
 
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gnome said:
It is not so difficult if you order a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. I bet they would agree to a cease fire to allow an orderly removal.
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Even if they (pretend to) withdraw, there'll still be separatists in Donbas and doubtless the Russians will try to use them to destabilise Ukraine. :(
 
The Don said:
Even if they (pretend to) withdraw, there'll still be separatists in Donbas and doubtless the Russians will try to use them to destabilise Ukraine. :(
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They won't be so much of a problem now. First, a lot of them are dead or disabled. Second, Ukraine's armed forces are far more capable now than they were in 2014. Third, Russia's ability to support their quislings has been severely curtailed by their massive losses of men and materiel.
 
Andy_Ross said:
A mistake Russia has always made since the start of WW2

They did finally learn the lesson that armour needs infantry support but keep reverting. Combined Arms is still a mystery to them
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That's what I was wondering. When I see them run over OBVIOUS AT mines, or even get taken out by some cheap RPG projectile tied to a cheap drone, it's always fully buttoned down and obviously not seeing much. (As you'd expect.) When there's infantry with them, it's packed inside a BMP or BTR or such... which often also runs over a mine or is taken out by a drone that it never saw.

I swear it's like their officers learned to use tanks in War Thunder or World Of Tanks... (No offence to either as games, but their game mechanics differ from real war:p)
 
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Yeah, I don't see how an orderly withdrawal of combat-capable formations is a feasible alternative for either side. Ukraine is certainly not going to break contact with troops they are forcing to retreat. That's just stupid. And Moscow certainly isn't going to expect them to.

What would make more practical sense, I think, is surrender of frontline troops, and withdrawal of backline troops after abandoning their equipment. Like those Muscovites in Bakhmut. They're not going to be able to withdraw from that kettle. They should just lay down their arms and surrender.

And that should be what Ukraine offers: Any formations that surrender will be taken as POWs and repatriated after the cessation of hostilities, according to the conventions of armed conflict. Any formations that try to retreat will be pursued and destroyed, until they outrun their pursuers. Any formations that try to stand and fight will be engaged and destroyed, until there are no more combat-capable formations on Ukrainian soil.
 
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned war is coming back to Russia after a drone attack on the capital Moscow.

Mr Zelensky said attacks on Russian territory were an "inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process" of the war between the two countries.
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And in a video address on Sunday from the western Ukrainian city of Ivano-Frankivsk, Mr Zelensky said that Ukraine was getting stronger.

"Today is the 522nd day of the so-called 'Special Military Operation', which the Russian leadership thought would last a couple of weeks," he said.

"Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia - to its symbolic centres and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process."
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Video of drone strike in link

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66352765
 
14th Spetz "Special Forces" brigade that was being held back in russia as a strategic res force has shown up on the southern front according to sources tracking sigint.

It's now on the line and fighting as regular line infantry.

Good for them. using SF as infantry is a great way to lose them.
 
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Andy_Ross said:
14th Spetz "Special Forces" brigade that was being held back in russia as a strategic res force has shown up on the southern front according to sources tracking sigint.

It's now on the line from and fighting as regular line infantry.

Good for them. using SF as infantry is a great way to lose them.
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Wow, that plus Shoigu going to N Korea to beg for weapons... its getting pretty obvious that Russia is out of weapons, and out of ideas.
 
Well, that and it's Shoigu. The guy who never served a single day in the actual army, but got successive promotions from Major General to top rank Army General, by picking the right political side to be on. And who's the dumbest general ever, even after my mile-long thread about complaining about generals like Cadorna, Potiorek and von Hötzendorf in WW1. (And if you missed that, trust me, those guys took being illogical to a whole new level. Shoigu tops it.)

We can only pray that Putin keeps him in charge, just for being a complete fanboy, and allows him to keep working hard to pry defeat from the jaws of victory.

If we ever get him dismissed and replaced by an actual professional general, who earned his promotions and has the experience -- and seriously, even Gerasimov would actually qualify there -- good elder gods help us all... That's when we have to start contemplating that, whelp, it's been good while it lasted, but now Ukraine is toast :p
 
HansMustermann said:
Well, that and it's Shoigu. The guy who never served a single day in the actual army, but got successive promotions from Major General to top rank Army General, by picking the right political side to be on. And who's the dumbest general ever, even after my mile-long thread about complaining about generals like Cadorna, Potiorek and von Hötzendorf in WW1. (And if you missed that, trust me, those guys took being illogical to a whole new level. Shoigu tops it.)

We can only pray that Putin keeps him in charge, just for being a complete fanboy, and allows him to keep working hard to pry defeat from the jaws of victory.

If we ever get him dismissed and replaced by an actual professional general, who earned his promotions and has the experience -- and seriously, even Gerasimov would actually qualify there -- good elder gods help us all... That's when we have to start contemplating that, whelp, it's been good while it lasted, but now Ukraine is toast :p
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Jesus wept...worse than an Austrian or Italian WW1 general equals someone who is quite possibly worse than... well no one in the position. Literally just let your corps and division level commanders do their own thing would be better!
 
eerok said:
The rumors about the hit on the Chonhar bridge appear to be true, though Russia continues to pretend it didn't happen.

It is now absolutely certain that the rail bridge of Chonhar connecting Russian-occupied Crimea with the remaining Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast has been severely hit. That bridge is most certainly out of action for the remainder of this war. (reddit.com)
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I... have my doubts about that assertion. It doesn't look like the span itself was destroyed. Pour some ballast and bring in some rail sections to repair should be pretty easy even for Russia to do inside a week. Hope I'm wrong though.
 
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If they have equipment and workers, that is a 1-2 day fix.

I don't think this should be considered a kill.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Jesus wept...worse than an Austrian or Italian WW1 general equals someone who is quite possibly worse than... well no one in the position. Literally just let your corps and division level commanders do their own thing would be better!
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Yeah, I'm convinced that quite literally, you could promote an actual bear to MOD, and it would work better than what the Russians have been doing. At least they'd probably lock him up in an office, and the officers underneath could just do their own thing :p
 
I'm pretty sure the officers under him are already doing their own thing. They're just not all that much better at their jobs than he is.

This isn't a matter of competent officers being led by a jackass. This is a decades-in-the-making systemic, institutional failure of doctrine, training, planning, and professionalism, at all levels of Moscow's military establishment.

There are obviously some Muscovite officers who are at least minimally competent, in a restricted scope. Moscow is still hanging in there, after all. But their troops are poorly trained and poorly equipped. They have no NCO corps to speak of. Their logistical backing is downright primitive. Their operational planning and coordination is weak. Moscow's military-industrial complex just isn't set up to let these officers really show off their personal strengths in battle.

Look at Prigozhin. Obviously the dude has something going for him. You don't get to be Moscow's prime contractor for warlording in Africa, without having some skill as a military strategist and leader of men. You don't get to put your troops into the meat grinder of Bakhmut, and see it through at any price, without being at least marginally competent. If Wagner, led by Prigozhin, were backed by a properly competent Muscovite military, they'd be pretty fearsome.

But let Prigozhin loose to do his own thing, and we see the result: He'd rather bail out, than try to fill the competency gaps left by his superiors.
 
Well, admittedly, we've seen some pretty incompetent officers down the totem pole too. I mean, I've already said that it's like they learned their job in World Of Tanks or War Thunder (which don't have supporting infantry or really any real kind of combined arms.) So you have that point.

But then we've also seen some generals who seemed competent in the past get replaced or outright dismissed because they asked for troop rotation or any other sane policy. Or just because Gerasimov or Shoigu wanted the glory instead.

I mean, since you mention Prigozhin, look at all the drama between him and Shoigu. The dud has been cut off from supplies because Shoigu wanted his own troops to take Bakhmut instead of the Wagner troops, and that's just scratching the surface of the shenanigans, culminating in Prigozhin's troops actively getting bombed by Shoigu's troops if they didn't immediately fold under his command.

Like, look, I've been complaining about WW1 generals before and we've had our differences of opinions about it. But even the top 3 WW1 idiots in my list didn't actively try to sabotage a competent underling lest he gets more glory in their stead. Like, even Cadorna or Potiorek or von Hötzendorf, FSM knows I have a lot to impute to them, but none of them went as far as to actually cut supplies or outright shell a subordinate for being TOO competent. What's happening in Russia is something on a whole other level.
 
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HansMustermann said:
Well, admittedly, we've seen some pretty incompetent officers down the totem pole too. I mean, I've already said that it's like they learned their job in World Of Tanks or War Thunder (which don't have supporting infantry or really any real kind of combined arms.) So you have that point.

But then we've also seen some generals who seemed competent in the past get replaced or outright dismissed because they asked for troop rotation or any other sane policy. Or just because Gerasimov or Shoigu wanted the glory instead.

I mean, since you mention Prigozhin, look at all the drama between him and Shoigu. The dud has been cut off from supplies because Shoigu wanted his own troops to take Bakhmut instead of the Wagner troops, and that's just scratching the surface of the shenanigans, culminating in Prigozhin's troops actively getting bombed by Shoigu's troops if they didn't immediately fold under his command.

Like, look, I've been complaining about WW1 generals before and we've had our differences of opinions about it. But even the top 3 WW1 idiots in my list didn't actively try to sabotage a competent underling. What's happening in Russia is something on a whole other level.
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The parrelels of that and Himmler vs OKW are pretty strong.
 
Hmm, now that you mention it, you definitely have a point. Thanks for bringing that up to my attention.

Still -- and I might be wrong, not being an actual historian, nor a WW2 one -- while the Nazis certainly did promote infighting and whatnot, I'm not aware of anything being outright sabotaging each other like in Russia. Mind you, a non-historian not being aware doesn't actually say much.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Wow, that plus Shoigu going to N Korea to beg for weapons... its getting pretty obvious that Russia is out of weapons, and out of ideas.
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When you commit one of your supposed elite units as line infantry things are not going well.
 
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