• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

Status
Not open for further replies.
TurkeysGhost said:
open question how many members of NATO are really wiling to totally sever their supply lines through China or India, considering how economically disastrous that would be. These sanction threats would be huge bluffs that I'm not sure anyone actually wants to follow through on.

Sanctions work best against pissant countries whose economic output is negligible.

Any realistic approach to increasing economic sanctions against Russia would require the willing cooperation of non-NATO countries, which could be feasible if they actually deployed a nuclear weapon.
Click to expand...

Not really. What large economies are left outside of China/India and NATO: Japan, S Korea, Australia. They are very minor trading partners with Russia currently. Theres also semiconductors from Taiwan, but the US could easily put pressure on them to cooperate... so you guys want defense guarantees or no?

I mean... to me this is the incorrect response to Russia using nukes anyways, but its something. That would be putting 20 2,000lb JDAM's at every location we even think Putin might be in. Sinking their entire navy, crippling their nuclear capacity etc.

Aside from a piece of paper there is no reason we'd risk actual or economic calamity for Poland, Romania, or The Baltic states either. We may as well just let Russia have them if we let them get away with nuking Ukraine. Germany too.
 
theprestige said:
I'm pretty sure the US government made statements last year to the effect of, "we wouldn't bother retaliating with nukes, we'd just use conventional weapons to destroy your military."
Click to expand...


Not sure there's much of a distinction. NATO forces directly engaging Russian targets, especially if those targets are in Russia, would be initiating WWIII.

I don't really have much objection to the notion of a proxy war per se, but I do get nervous when I see so many war hawks in the US who seem eager to convert a proxy war into a direct conflict.

At least during the Cold War there was a general understanding that two nuclear powers going to war was a Very Bad Idea. The US public seems to have deeply internalized the attitudes of the GWOT era where the USA can engage in warfare anywhere it pleases with no consequences, which is so dangerous in this context it's practically a suicide drive.
 
Last edited:
TurkeysGhost said:
open question how many members of NATO are really wiling to totally sever their supply lines through China or India, considering how economically disastrous that would be. These sanction threats would be huge bluffs that I'm not sure anyone actually wants to follow through on.
Click to expand...
I think you're trying to imagine a world where someone has started using nukes in regional conflicts, but nobody has noticed they're using nukes in regional conflicts. The scenario is already economically destabilizing. China and India have more to offer by helping isolate Moscow quickly and completely, than by exacerbating and prolonging the situation.

Sanctions work best against pissant countries whose economic output is negligible.
Click to expand...
Moscow's economic output is negligible, so China and India should have no problem getting on board. It's especially in China's best interest to not have a nuke-using Moscow in their backyard.

Any realistic approach to increasing economic sanctions against Russia would require the willing cooperation of non-NATO countries, which could be feasible if they actually deployed a nuclear weapon.
Click to expand...
That's exactly the scenario we're talking about, so I don't understand the nature of your concern. Is this supposed to be some sort of weird crypto-tankie rebuttal?
 
theprestige said:
Presumably "NATO" (i.e., "the West" in this context) would point their trade sanctions at China and India if they don't get on board. Honestly, if Moscow starts throwing nukes around, China and India might not even need much convincing.

It's one thing to back the second-ranked bully in the hopes he'll stay strong enough to counterbalance the top-ranked bully. It's another thing entirely to keep backing the second-ranked bully when he starts burning down the neighborhood.
Click to expand...

China is in particular becoming wary of supporting Russia. If the Russian economy collapses after the West puts sanctions on China then they are essentially isolated. It will mean a collapse of the Chinese economy. In other words, don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Some detailed analysis I watched yesterday on the economic side of things...



absolutely sickening how much US technology is still getting to Russia BTW.
 
theprestige said:
That's exactly the scenario we're talking about, so I don't understand the nature of your concern. Is this supposed to be some sort of weird crypto-tankie rebuttal?
Click to expand...

I'm saying that Russia using a nuke might be wildly unacceptable enough that even self-interested, neutral parties like China or India might decide to distance themselves, but I wouldn't assume it out of hand. Have either articulated a red-line policy concerning Russia's potential use of nukes?
 
Last edited:
HansMustermann said:
Hmm, now that you mention it, you definitely have a point. Thanks for bringing that up to my attention.

Still -- and I might be wrong, not being an actual historian, nor a WW2 one -- while the Nazis certainly did promote infighting and whatnot, I'm not aware of anything being outright sabotaging each other like in Russia. Mind you, a non-historian not being aware doesn't actually say much.
Click to expand...

It's a feature not a bug.

One doesn't want those who might be a physical threat to one to be in a position to threaten one, even if it means that the war Sims are less likely to be met, it's better than having an overly strong underling or rival depending on whether one is at the top or just the second tier.

I don't think Prigozhin thought he had much chance, just more than if he let Shoigu take his power.
 
One can hope. One can at least hope that somewhere along the line, America and Friends will find something Moscow is doing to be so unconscionable that they'll intervene directly and end this horrorshow.

It's not the daily war crimes.

It's not the kidnapping of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children.

It's not the heinous ecocide.

It's not the attacks on the grain storage and transport facilities, an egregious crime against humanity.

But maybe, just maybe, if Moscow makes limited use of nuclear weapons to stall Ukraine's offensive, the west will finally un-ass the curb-stomping Moscow so richly deserves.

And then, when the dust settles, some Muscovite is going to testify at the Hague that the only reason they thought it would be safe to use nukes at all is because "honestly you had us convinced that if you were going to intervene directly, you would have done so a lot sooner."
 
Last edited:
theprestige said:
One can hope. One can at least hope that somewhere along the line, America and Friends will find something Moscow is doing to be so unconscionable that they'll intervene directly and end this horrorshow.
Click to expand...

hard to imagine any scenario of direct Nato vs Russia warfare that doesn't result in Ukraine getting hammered into dust even more so than it already is. Any escalation of war will be felt most intensely in Ukraine.
 
TurkeysGhost said:
hard to imagine any scenario of direct Nato vs Russia warfare that doesn't result in Ukraine getting hammered into dust even more so than it already is. Any escalation of war will be felt most intensely in Ukraine.
Click to expand...

I'm really not at all sure about that. I think if we started bombing Russian positions in Ukraine, Russia would withdraw and sue for peace, because continuing on is obviously pointless. Putin doesn't have an ultra tight grip on Russia like Stalin did. He depends on the oligarchs to keep him in power, and those guys would rather live to enjoy their wealth than die in a fiery nuclear holocaust.
 
lobosrul5 said:
I'm really not at all sure about that. I think if we started bombing Russian positions in Ukraine, Russia would withdraw and sue for peace, because continuing on is obviously pointless. Putin doesn't have an ultra tight grip on Russia like Stalin did. He depends on the oligarchs to keep him in power, and those guys would rather live to enjoy their wealth than die in a fiery nuclear holocaust.
Click to expand...

The biggest strength of almost any autocracy is the belief that it's strong. Prigozhin dented this.

Also, expanding on your comparison with Stalin, although Russian media is controlled, it's still far easier to find information than even in the 1970s
 
Just the threat of using nukes should be enough reason for American to at least establish a no fly zone over the Ukraine. Including Donetsk and Crimea.
 
More provocation... seeing what they can get away with???

Statement by the Polish Ministry of Defense regarding the 2 Helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force which crossed into Polish Airspace earlier today; due to the “Incident” the Polish Minister of National Defense has ordered the Deployment of additional Ground Forces as well as Attack Helicopters to the Border with Belarus.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/st...bed/15fklkg?responsive=trueis_nightmode=false
 
I would think the NATO enhanced forward presence battlegroup in Poland will be positioning itself towards the border with Belarus
 
lobosrul5 said:
More provocation... seeing what they can get away with???

Statement by the Polish Ministry of Defense regarding the 2 Helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force which crossed into Polish Airspace earlier today; due to the “Incident” the Polish Minister of National Defense has ordered the Deployment of additional Ground Forces as well as Attack Helicopters to the Border with Belarus.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/st...bed/15fklkg?responsive=trueis_nightmode=false
Click to expand...

That account is not the most reliable. Unfortunately I cannot remember what I saw that led me to that conclusion.
 
Drewbot said:
Just the threat of using nukes should be enough reason for American to at least establish a no fly zone over the Ukraine. Including Donetsk and Crimea.
Click to expand...


There's no "at least." This would mean a shooting war between Russia and NATO. A better solution is to stop with the half-measures in providing Ukraine with weapons, and give the Ukrainians what they need to win, in the quantities they need, as soon as possible.
 
SpitfireIX said:
There's no "at least." This would mean a shooting war between Russia and NATO. A better solution is to stop with the half-measures in providing Ukraine with weapons, and give the Ukrainians what they need to win, in the quantities they need, as soon as possible.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

It's the cheapest, most efficient and most ethical approach
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom