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Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

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Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Surely if anything, this is a good time for Tesla. One of Elon Musk's biggest fanboys, Jordan Peterson, is currently decrying Canada's decision to move to sales of zero-emission vehicles who is also now leaning into his catch phrase of "up yours, woke moralists!"

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There’s a new US government subsidy coming in in January. Nobody in America wants to buy a Tesla this month, they want them next month.
 
The general trend is for Electricity prices to remain high, as cars that used to run on gasoline become electrified.
Add to that the increased need for climate change mitigation through electric AC.
 
There are those who don't care if it's the most economical way or not, if it's private enterprise it's bad.
Equally vociferous are the "private enterprise is always better" advocates.
 
Why would the demand for electric cars be softening?

Here in the UK demand for electric vehicles is very strong but Tesla is losing market share.

Part of it is that there is far more choice at the Tesla price points from well established manufacturers and part of it is that Teslas are very expensive here in the UK and so people are choosing less expensive models both from well established manufacturers and from new entrants into the market from China.

The MG4 is currently getting good reviews. It may not have the range of a Tesla, but it'd be good enough for most people most of the time but it costs under £27k, the cheapest Model 3 is over £45k.

My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla.
 
Interesting. So this fall in price could be temporary….?

I'm going to partially walk back what I said. The new tax credit is a major factor, but there are several others.

https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/why-used-tesla-ev-prices-dropping/

I think Tesla is in trouble regardless of the tax credit situation. It's got no new models. The second hand market is saturated. Other manufacturers are beginning to erode its market position. The CEO is AWOL (although that might be a positive).
 
My next car will almost certainly be an EV, though I hope it'll be a good few years before I need to buy one. It's very likely that I'd buy a VAG group vehicle instead of a Tesla.

Likewise. My current car is a 2014 Audi but it's got plenty of life in it yet. I can wait for years before I have to make a decision on a new car. What I can say is it will be a cold day in hell before I put money into the pocket of Elon Musk.
 
At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/g41954660/2023-toyota-prius-prime-revealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.
 
At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/g41954660/2023-toyota-prius-prime-revealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.

Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...?
 
Hmm, an industry leader initially provides an inovative and wanted product. However, after being the top dog for years, it becomes complacent and stops inovating. Instead it tells it's consumers to be grateful for what they are getting and to shut up. Soon said leader is stagnent in the market and is losing its lead to German and Japanese competitors. Now where have I seen this before...?

Oh yeah there are parallels between this and Detroit (or British Leyland) circa 1980. I don't recall if any of those companies had major shareholders leverage their holdings as part of a leveraged buyout of a media company and then started using it as a mouthpiece to spew garbage that many of their potential buyers disliked though.
 
At the moment I have no frickin clue why anyone would by a Tesla Model 3 with this coming out...

https://www.caranddriver.com/photos/g41954660/2023-toyota-prius-prime-revealed-gallery/

Yeah its a PHEV, not a BEV... but I can get it for less than a Model 3 and then not have to worry about finding charging stations on a road trip. Its a Toyota so I wouldn't have to worry about Tesla's ****** build quality. And I think its a better looking car. And its MSRP is estimated at $27,450.

Why is Tesla in trouble? Because he's pissed off many of his fanboys, and the Germans and Japanese are coming for market share.

The Tesla charging network is their ace in the hole. If anyone else had anything similar there would be little reason to buy a Tesla.
 
The Tesla charging network is their ace in the hole. If anyone else had anything similar there would be little reason to buy a Tesla.

My thoughts on that are...

I've been looking at their plans for buildouts in my area (New Mexico). And they've already fallen behind what they said. Its not possible to get around all of rural NM or Colorado without being very very careful on where you charge, and if one station is down, you could be stranded. Look at the supercharger map and you'll see huge gaps in north central NM and south central Co. ETA: huge gap in SE New Mexico, but I'd never travel down there for any reason that I can think of.

But more than that... so there are resource costs to build lithium-ion batteries. Including carbon emissions. For my usage the 35 mi or so range of the new Prius is plenty for day to day usage. I'd probably only put 3 or 4 thousand miles on the ICE each year, or about 60 to 80 gls of gas. Is that enough to make building and towing around Tesla's much larger battery more economical, even from a carbon emission standpoint? I really doubt it.

I think the PHEV model for much of the world is going to be the way to go for a number of decades.
 
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I understand BEVs don’t work for as many people as a PHEV would. I was just pointing out the one real advantage Tesla currently has over its competitors: you get twice as many charging points, more or less.

So, more areas are drivable in a Tesla BEV than in a VAG, Stellantis, GM, Korean Twin, or Ford BEV.

But that may not mean that your area is driveable in any BEV, yet.
 
How long until Tesla makes some form of adapter that will allow all vehicles charge from their stations so that they can charge them for it? It would actually be a good move.
 
I understand BEVs don’t work for as many people as a PHEV would. I was just pointing out the one real advantage Tesla currently has over its competitors: you get twice as many charging points, more or less.

So, more areas are drivable in a Tesla BEV than in a VAG, Stellantis, GM, Korean Twin, or Ford BEV.

But that may not mean that your area is driveable in any BEV, yet.

There needs to be legislation to make charging points universal.
 
How long until Tesla makes some form of adapter that will allow all vehicles charge from their stations so that they can charge them for it? It would actually be a good move.

Not sure of the time frame, but Tesla definitely has plans to open its Supercharger network to other brands.

Pros: Could end up being a huge revenue source going forward, plus it may entitle them to more government incentives for doing so.

Cons: Nothing will disillusion current Tesla owners faster than having to wait for a Supercharger because the stalls are filled with other brands. Right now, a major selling point for Tesla is their Supercharger network. That selling point vanishes if any EV can use it. Tesla will need to continue to grow its Supercharger network to keep up with demand.
 
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