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Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

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The Great Zaganza said:
It only took two decades for regulators in the EU to force cellphone makers to standardize their charging connector.
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Yes but that was not about saving the world. This is, so there are guaranteed to be only adults in the room.
 
8enotto said:
Many EV types are specific to a battery type. Probably for type of charge circuit installed.

Make the car a generic set voltage setup with a universal type charge circuit. Give all cars a universal battery size and compartment. Now as battery technology improves one could just change to new tech without changing to a new car. The battery pack would be adjusted to use the universal circuit.

Or you could run your lead acid commuter battery pack for work as the road trip lithium unit is at home charging up for the weekend vacation.
If one gets unreliable it's not too difficult to do a core trade for a fresh unit.

Trucks could just use several standard packs depending on how far or power requirements. Locals carry one or two, interstate traffic more.
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Fundamental problems:

Battery packs are extremely heavy. You're not going to be able to change them without specialist lifting equipment. You aren't going to bed able to swap your lead-acid battery with your lithium battery at home.

Battery packs constitute an extreme electrical hazard. They are designed to supply high voltages and high currents. If people are able to swap them out easily, there will be fatalities.

Modern EVs use the structure of the EV itself to package the battery cells. If you want them to be easily removable as a unit, you have to add extra packaging which will increase the weight of the battery/car combination.
 
Samson said:
Yes but that was not about saving the world. This is, so there are guaranteed to be only adults in the room.
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...

Given past behaviors, I would absolutely not trust that argument. So long as strong pressure to act in the best interests of all is kept on those making the decisions, it's likely that they'll act correctly, but only if that pressure is maintained and kept greater than those who oppose such.
 
mgidm86 said:
Also, that's a lot of friggin batteries to make and discard, especially world wide. Lots of issues to tackle.
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A very large percentage of the materials of an EV battery at end-of-life are recyclable. Companies are springing up to do just that. The vision of landfills filled with depleted EV batteries is probably not valid.

And “end of life” is a vague concept. Imagine an EV with 300 miles of range losing 2/3 of its battery’s capacity over the years. That 100 mile range used EV could still be useful to a city dweller, let’s say. And the battery pack could still serve other functions, such as home power backup.

Tesla’s take, for one: https://www.tesla.com/support/sustainability-recycling

The technology will improve and that's been interesting to see so far.
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No doubt.
 
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Solid-state batteries could be coming soon, which would make the batteries lighter and more energy-dense.

https://electrek.co/2022/07/19/how-solid-state-ev-batteries-could-cut-emissions-by-up-to-39/

For a skeptical take on the Tesla semi, I found this interesting:



Musk has a long history of overpromising, and underdelivering. The video makes it pretty clear.

Like, in 2017 he promised that the electricity would be available for 7 cents/kwh. Even at the time that was wildly optimistic, to put the kindest possible spin on it. (Retail prices were 13-14 cents/kwh at the time, and Tesla currently charges close to 50 cents/kwh for its superchargers.)
 
mgidm86 said:
I think it is best to phase out gasoline, and all the gas stations (they will convert), and all the trucks that deliver the fuel, and everything else associated.

Didn't Tesla say they have a 700 mile car coming out? Takes away excuses from people like my Dad - "300 miles isn't enough!" (and btw...poor you)

Guys on the fishing forum I used to frequent are saying they're going to use ICE as long as possible. They don't realize maybe that it will get very expensive, supply and demand, plus new regulations and fees that may be applied to the providers and to drivers. You will pay extra taxes if you still drive ICE vehicles.

However there may be limited demand for gas for a long time. Fine, but it will get very expensive.
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I've not seen an announcement about that, but I think it's unlikely.

The current limitations of lithium batteries have more to do with the laws of physics than the inadequacies of our technology. You can only pack so many lithium ions into a given volume. A doubling in range means a doubling in the size and mass of the battery unless there has been some amazing breakthrough in battery chemistry and I think we'd have heard about that.

Then there's the fact that Tesla is appallingly bad at bringing new cars to market. The Cybertruck was meant to be here in 2021 and now it's going to be 2023 at the earliest. The semi is even worse and they don't seem to have any other new mass production models on the horizon.
 
Yes, with current battery technology and significant advances in range will be down to more efficient vehicles and/or on car solar. IMO this can only deliver modest, incremental increases in range.
 
TSLA stock now at $109 a share, down 11.4% for the day, ~71% off its all time high from late last year. I cannot recall a stock behaving this poorly compared to the market at large and not going bankrupt except Netflix in 2011. I'll buy some if it hits ~30 a share.

ETA: someone needs to start a "will this head of lettuce outlast Elon as CEO of Tesla" Twitter feed.
 
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lobosrul5 said:
TSLA stock now at $109 a share, down 11.4% for the day, ~71% off its all time high from late last year. I cannot recall a stock behaving this poorly compared to the market at large and not going bankrupt except Netflix in 2011. I'll buy some if it hits ~30 a share.
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I bought 7 more shares @ the market this morning when the market opened, so about $117/share.

They say “Never try to catch a falling knife”, and this is probably why. Still, even with this purchase my basis for the shares I now own is $47.97/share, so I’m still up. We’ll have to see if that continues to be the case.
 
In regards to trucking going electric being far off - that's overall not very true.

Sure, if you only think about OTR (Long-Haul) trucking, maybe. But that's probably the last kind of trucking to go fully electric. In-port trucking is very quickly becoming dominated by electrics and even semi-autonomous. It's cheaper to have two electrics replace one diesel in those applications for a host of reasons even beyond the fuel savings (including safety in buildings, mechanical maintenance being cheaper, etc).

Regional and local will go electric faster than OTR for many of the same reasons. Distribution centers are very often under 200 miles from their served stores, where they spend quite a lot of time waiting at each location. It isn't hard to see the benefits of fully electric trucks for those.

I don't think Tesla specifically is well positioned to take advantage of those though, especially compared to Volvo and Scania.
 
Shalamar said:
Tesla has started delivering their semi trucks to Pepsi/Frito Lay.
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Yeah I saw that. It's being used to deliver drinks at only short ranges. Chips at longer ranges since they'd never get to max weight anyways.

As tyr said, it's otr trucking that will be last, hence my statement
that gas/diesel stations will be around for decades. I think, in blue states anyways, we'll eventually see towns banning ice engine use in city limits except possibly on US Highways and Interstates. Long before were 100% electric. Hell I'd like to see it as reality next year, if only so I don't have to listen to all the jackasses who have nothing better to do than rev their engine at night! But political and economic reality makes me think it's decades away excepting Manhattan and SF perhaps.
 
tyr_13 said:
In regards to trucking going electric being far off - that's overall not very true.

Sure, if you only think about OTR (Long-Haul) trucking, maybe. But that's probably the last kind of trucking to go fully electric. In-port trucking is very quickly becoming dominated by electrics and even semi-autonomous. It's cheaper to have two electrics replace one diesel in those applications for a host of reasons even beyond the fuel savings (including safety in buildings, mechanical maintenance being cheaper, etc).

Regional and local will go electric faster than OTR for many of the same reasons. Distribution centers are very often under 200 miles from their served stores, where they spend quite a lot of time waiting at each location. It isn't hard to see the benefits of fully electric trucks for those.

I don't think Tesla specifically is well positioned to take advantage of those though, especially compared to Volvo and Scania.
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Frankly for long distance haulage, the solution is electrified rail, always has been and (unless something like Star Trek transporters are invented) always will be. For short distance haulage, Tesla aren't even in the game as all their efforts are squared at long distance haulage, the cybertruck is not very useful for last few miles delivery.

Oh and on the share price falling; I'd have thought it'd shore up somewhat, on the grounds of with Musk distracted, the company might be in a position to start making sensible decisions as a manufacturer.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Frankly for long distance haulage, the solution is electrified rail, always has been and (unless something like Star Trek transporters are invented) always will be. For short distance haulage, Tesla aren't even in the game as all their efforts are squared at long distance haulage, the cybertruck is not very useful for last few miles delivery.
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The problem with electrified rail is that not all of it is electrified. Even in places where it is electrified like parts of the UK, goods trains still seem to be hauled by diesel locomotives. If I was guessing I’d say this is because goods yards and quarries and so forth generally don’t have overhead wires.

The Cybertruck isn’t designed as a commercial vehicle, by the way. It’s a competitor to things like the electric F150. There are already a number of electric trucks in production that are designed for the last mile, so Tesla would have to do something it has never done before which is enter a new market with EV competitors already in place.
Oh and on the share price falling; I'd have thought it'd shore up somewhat, on the grounds of with Musk distracted, the company might be in a position to start making sensible decisions as a manufacturer.
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The problem there is that Tesla’s market cap is still too high for the size of car manufacturer it is, even If it is well run.
 
jeremyp said:
The problem with electrified rail is that not all of it is electrified. Even in places where it is electrified like parts of the UK, goods trains still seem to be hauled by diesel locomotives. If I was guessing I’d say this is because goods yards and quarries and so forth generally don’t have overhead wires.

The Cybertruck isn’t designed as a commercial vehicle, by the way. It’s a competitor to things like the electric F150. There are already a number of electric trucks in production that are designed for the last mile, so Tesla would have to do something it has never done before which is enter a new market with EV competitors already in place.

The problem there is that Tesla’s market cap is still too high for the size of car manufacturer it is, even If it is well run.
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Even going diesel rail instead of OTR trucking would massively reduce the carbon emissions for transport of goods. The problem is, politics in America. Trucking is massively subsidized by use of free to use highways in which their share of diesel tax doesn't even come close to paying for wear and tear on the roads. The alternative is for a private company to build out and operate rail lines without any significant subsidies because American's view that as socialism for corporations. Even though we do the same for trucking, its not seen that way.

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/06...to-128-billion-in-costs-on-society-each-year/

Tesla's market cap or P/E ratio never made sense for them at present, but its a growth stock. Which means its their potential future earnings that the market values it so highly. If they became a behemoth and all but cornered the EV market then eventually their valuation at present earnings would make sense. I just don't see that ever happening.
 
https://metro.co.uk/2022/12/28/six-...ly-like-owning-a-tesla-at-christmas-18004669/

"Tesla owners were having a truly British Christmas this year by queuing for hours to charge their electric cars. Several snaking queues have been spotted up and down the UK over the last few days. Nearly two dozen cars were logjammed at a charging point in a Waitrose parking lot in the Hertfordshire*village of South Mims on Christmas Day.
One TikTok user said the Tesla owners were waiting around one hour to charge their cars at the station."
 
Nessie said:
https://metro.co.uk/2022/12/28/six-...ly-like-owning-a-tesla-at-christmas-18004669/

"Tesla owners were having a truly British Christmas this year by queuing for hours to charge their electric cars. Several snaking queues have been spotted up and down the UK over the last few days. Nearly two dozen cars were logjammed at a charging point in a Waitrose parking lot in the Hertfordshire*village of South Mims on Christmas Day.
One TikTok user said the Tesla owners were waiting around one hour to charge their cars at the station."
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If Tesla doesn't keep investing in more charging stations this is just gonna be status-quo I'm afraid.
 
It's not really Tesla's responsibility to build infrastructure, though, is it?
 
Ryokan said:
It's not really Tesla's responsibility to build infrastructure, though, is it?
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Interesting, are you saying someone else should build Tesla Superchargers? Another private corporation, or should the taxpayers of the UK pay for it? Either way, I don't believe anyone can legally do so without licensing their technology.

ETA: FYI no other EV's can make use of them.
 
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