Will Donald Trump implode, and when?

[Maya22]

Yeah, my respect for Johnson took a pretty big tumble recently when he told a pretty big lie. I don't agree with all of their platform, but at least I thought they were honest.

If I do end up voting for him its purely as a protest, not because I actually want Johnson to be president.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...arian-candidate-gary-johnson-mischaracterize/

I'm not voting for Johnson, however, that seems like just a mistake on his part. It's as if I accidentally told someone that California has 29 million registered voters when it only has around 18 million registered voters.

 

[Trebuchet]

I'm already planning to vote for Johnson as a protest, because Hillary is close to the worst candidate the Dems could have nominated. The exception would be if it looks like there's any chance Dumbf could win my state. That's unlikely.

 

[lobosrul]

I'm not voting for Johnson, however, that seems like just a mistake on his part. It's as if I accidentally told someone that California has 29 million registered voters when it only has around 18 million registered voters.

Not really... he claimed we have to send in our military to defend nearly 70 countries worldwide if they are invaded. For many of them that's false. What we are bound by treaty in many cases is very vague on just what assistance we have to give. Also, he's very wrong that congress hasn't ratified any of the treaties. Just one wasn't. The rest were approved by the senate as it is spelled out very clearly in the US Constitution.

 

[lobosrul]

I'm already planning to vote for Johnson as a protest, because Hillary is close to the worst candidate the Dems could have nominated. The exception would be if it looks like there's any chance Dumbf could win my state. That's unlikely.

Yeah planning the same. Though if he gets much more traction Johnson just might take New Mexico (where I reside).

 

[CynicalSkeptic]

That would be amazing if he actually takes a state. Is he polling significantly higher in NM then the national polls are showing?

 

[lobosrul]

That would be amazing if he actually takes a state. Is he polling significantly higher in NM then the national polls are showing?

I haven't seen any polls, but he was a fairly popular governor here not too long ago. And with Jill Stein thrown in its not completely implausible that 35% of the vote will carry the state. He took 3.5% here in 2012, so that is a rather big mountain to climb though.

ETA: googled: 11% on June 6th.

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/48751/gary-johnson-at-11-percent-in-poll/

ETA2: I think that was a national poll actually.

 

[SOdhner]

Lately Johnson has been around 9% in national polls, give or take. I think he'll end up significantly higher than that but still under 20% and I don't think it's remotely plausible for him to actually win a state, though it would be super fascinating if it happened.

 

[dudalb]

Lately Johnson has been around 9% in national polls, give or take. I think he'll end up significantly higher than that but still under 20% and I don't think it's remotely plausible for him to actually win a state, though it would be super fascinating if it happened.

ANd Johnson will hurt Trump a lot more then Hillary. I think fear of Trump will keep down the protest votes on the Democratic side,And anyway,it seems to me that Jill Stein (Green Party) is a lot more attractive protest vote for those on the left then Johnson.

 

[lobosrul]

Lately Johnson has been around 9% in national polls, give or take. I think he'll end up significantly higher than that but still under 20% and I don't think it's remotely plausible for him to actually win a state, though it would be super fascinating if it happened.

If he is over 10% nationally then the odds of him taking New Mexico become very significant. He received about triple the amount of votes here in 2012 than nationally, by percentage.

 

[SOdhner]

If he is over 10% nationally then the odds of him taking New Mexico become very significant. He received about triple the amount of votes here in 2012 than nationally, by percentage.

I'm far from an expert, but I really don't think you can just scale it up. He got one percent overall, and 3.55 percent in New Mexico. That doesn't mean that if he gets ten percent overall he'll automatically get 35.5 percent in New Mexico though. I don't know enough to know what percentage is realistic, but in general most Republicans and most Democrats are still going to vote within the party.

 

[lobosrul]

I'm far from an expert, but I really don't think you can just scale it up. He got one percent overall, and 3.55 percent in New Mexico. That doesn't mean that if he gets ten percent overall he'll automatically get 35.5 percent in New Mexico though. I don't know enough to know what percentage is realistic, but in general most Republicans and most Democrats are still going to vote within the party.

Not saying automatic. And not saying he will win the state. Just that if he's in the double digits nationally, it will likely become an interesting race here. I'd sure like to see a poll.

 

[SOdhner]

Not saying automatic. And not saying he will win the state. Just that if he's in the double digits nationally, it will likely become an interesting race here. I'd sure like to see a poll.

Yeah, fair enough. Also, as I look for some kind of actual data I am starting to think I am maybe wrong anyway... while there's almost nothing to go off of for right now unless you are way smarter than I am and can make much much better educated guesses, I was at least able to look at the numbers for Perot and there was a much bigger variance than I was expecting - the range was essentially from 10-30% when I was expecting to see it way tighter. So saying that Johnson could have a big swing in New Mexico is certainly possible.

That being said, it's likely that the number to beat is about 40% which is still a tall order (I say this based on the same super outdated Perot data, where the lowest percentage that still won a state was 38.47% and most were in the 40s).

 

[dudalb]

I'm far from an expert, but I really don't think you can just scale it up. He got one percent overall, and 3.55 percent in New Mexico. That doesn't mean that if he gets ten percent overall he'll automatically get 35.5 percent in New Mexico though. I don't know enough to know what percentage is realistic, but in general most Republicans and most Democrats are still going to vote within the party.

True,but what Trump will have nightmares about is Johnson getting maybe 5 or 6% of the normal GOP vote ....that would be enough to sink Trump in the all important Swing States.In other words, being to Trump what Nader was to Gore in 2000/

 

[Foolmewunz]

Pennsylvania

RCP Average
Two-Way... Clinton 43 Trump 42
Four-Way... Clinton 40 Trump 38 Johnson 7.5 Stein 3.5

Most recent
Quinnipiac Two-Way... Clinton 42 Trump 41
Quinnipiac Four-Way... Clinton 39 Trump 36 Johnson 9 Stein 4

There are very few and relatively spaced apart individual state polls that do both the 2 way and 4 way. If the above is an indication, 8 points from Clinton and Trump shift to Johnson/Stein. Hillary loses 3 and Trump loses 5.

That's a single state and I don't know that the pattern will hold. In FL, VA, OH... they each have only a single recent poll, so you can't judge the effect. My suspicion is that a variation on the polls in PA will hold true. There are more disgruntled Republicans who will move to Johnson than there are disgruntled Dems who will move to either Stein or Johnson. Both Stein and Johnson in the Quinnipiac poll are picking up a portion of the uncommitted. Total is 83 per cent vs. 88.

Aside: There's other bad news for the GOP. Look at NC. Without the other two parties, Trump's ahead. With the L and G parties, it's a dead heat. I'm not a believer in AZ coming back into play - it's too "red". But if NC goes Democrat again, coupled with VA and PA and MI, we won't have to listen to CNN talk all night about "it all comes down to Florida and Ohio".

 

[dudalb]

Hate to say it, but you could proably have a convention of Green Party voters in NC in your living room,and still have lots of space.....

 

[lobosrul]

Hate to say it, but you could proably have a convention of Green Party voters in NC in your living room,and still have lots of space.....

Which is good for Hillary's chances. You could have a party in your backyard with all the people nationally considering a switch from Republican to Green.