Will the UK actually go through with leaving the EU?

[kevsta]

You keep posting this and as has been repeatedly pointed out, that's the total exposure but not the net exposure. If I have $1bn long exposure and $1bn short exposure then by your measure, my net exposure is $2bn but my net exposure is $0.

Deutsche Bank's net exposure to derivatives is a tiny, tiny fraction of the $72tn you quote.

and as I keep saying, how did this theory about it "all netting out" work out last time round?

If you have 1Bn long exposure, and have it delta-hedged via the options market (derivatives) and your long goes bad, and your counter-party paying you your short hedge back fails, what's your exposure then?

this simplistic "it all nets out" meme only reliably works in a solvent system, but does not factor in counterparty risk, as each broker or insurer down the line (AIG) goes down due to not being paid and/or increasing borrowing costs themselves.

 

[ddt]

I suppose it is a possibility that May has set up the Three Brexiteers for failure and then declare that if it is even beyond the powers of these three most able men (Davis, Fox and Boris "Bojo" Whiff Whaff Johnson) to make a workable Brexit then it should be abandoned.

Still she would be doing this at the expense of fatally undermining confidence in her own government.

Indeed, but that leads to the possible charge of irresponsible leadership rather than cunning. I don't think she would be applauded for saying, "Aha! I have skillfully made the country a laughing stock as a way of destroying my enemies in the party."

You've put it much more succinctly than I did in the other thread. But if this is May's cunning plan, then frankly, I'm missing the turnips, because it's as cunning as all those plans of Baldrick in Blackadder.

 

[Craig B]

You've put it much more succinctly than I did in the other thread. But if this is May's cunning plan, then frankly, I'm missing the turnips, because it's as cunning as all those plans of Baldrick in Blackadder.

I wholeheartedly agree. May has appointed these lunatics because she likes them, and agrees with their political doctrines. The "cunning plan" theory is "too clever by half". Such a policy would be fantastically and prohibitively dangerous.

 

[Norman Alexander]

The chief of the Remainers, and head of government of the UK, has followed their example.

True, but we are talking about the leavers, not the remainers.

So where's Farage these days? Not head of UKIP, that's for sure. But still sucking on the teat of the EU for the next couple of years. And it took him but a few hours until the cold light of morning to realise that his whole campaign was based on patent lies, everyone could see it, and for him to turn tail and bolt with a weak excuse. All piss and wind, that bloke.

Also, it would have been hypocritical for Cameron to stay on as PM having put his position on the line to stay. So yes, he went, but at least he was brave enough to do so and not try to cling on regardless. Although the loss doesn't seem much. May seems to be a tougher package. We shall see.

 

[Craig B]

True, but we are talking about the leavers, not the remainers.

So where's Farage these days? Not head of UKIP, that's for sure. But still sucking on the teat of the EU for the next couple of years. And it took him but a few hours until the cold light of morning to realise that his whole campaign was based on patent lies, everyone could see it, and for him to turn tail and bolt with a weak excuse. All piss and wind, that bloke.

Also, it would have been hypocritical for Cameron to stay on as PM having put his position on the line to stay. So yes, he went, but at least he was brave enough to do so and not try to cling on regardless. Although the loss doesn't seem much. May seems to be a tougher package. We shall see.

David Cameron has said he will remain at Downing Street regardless of the result of the EU referendum.

The Prime Minister told The Times Magazine that he was the best person to lead negotiations after a Leave vote on account of his "strong relationships" with other EU countries.​

Independent 18 June 2016.

 

[Norman Alexander]

David Cameron has said he will remain at Downing Street regardless of the result of the EU referendum.

The Prime Minister told The Times Magazine that he was the best person to lead negotiations after a Leave vote on account of his "strong relationships" with other EU countries.​

Independent 18 June 2016.

Read between the lines: He was looking for a way to scuttle the whole deal. Didn't happen.

 

[CapelDodger]

You think Boris is at long odds to commit some appalling faux-pas?

Irony is a habit I just can't kick.

 

[CapelDodger]

So where's Farage these days? Not head of UKIP, that's for sure. But still sucking on the teat of the EU for the next couple of years. And it took him but a few hours until the cold light of morning to realise that his whole campaign was based on patent lies, everyone could see it, and for him to turn tail and bolt with a weak excuse. All piss and wind, that bloke.

I won't be surprised if he comes back to Save The Nation from the Back-Sliders and Shilly-Shallyers. His act is all about protest, not process.

 

[CapelDodger]

If the put Boris Johnson in place as a foreign secretary because she expect him to do well in the post I want some of what she's been smoking. It's good hallucinogenic stuff, apparently.

My nephew has suggested that May wrote "F Off" after Boris Johnson's name on the list and her intent was tragically misinterpreted.

 

[CapelDodger]

You've put it much more succinctly than I did in the other thread. But if this is May's cunning plan, then frankly, I'm missing the turnips, because it's as cunning as all those plans of Baldrick in Blackadder.

The strong interpretation is that they've been set up to fail : the weak interpretation is that May doesn't care either way. She's well insulated from failure and can lay claim to any success. I go with the weak interpretation.

I'm getting the impression that May gives remarkably little weight to foreign affairs. "Punching above our weight" and strutting the world stage don't float her boat like they did Blair and Cameron. Which, in my opinion, is a very good thing.

 

[CapelDodger]

I wholeheartedly agree. May has appointed these lunatics because she likes them, and agrees with their political doctrines. The "cunning plan" theory is "too clever by half". Such a policy would be fantastically and prohibitively dangerous.

Boris Johnson has no political doctrines. David Davis is cast in the Cool Hand Luke role for his narcissism, not his political doctrines, if any. And the other guy plays Lepidus.

May has been saying things about inequality and stifled life-chances that these people must be pretty appalled by, but they're inside the tent and so unable to speak out. If May is sincere in her intent to address the real internal issues the UK faces then she has the perfect opportunity to walk the walk, since the Tory right-wing opposition can so easily be diverted up the Brexit cul-de-sac.