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Will the UK actually go through with leaving the EU?

Nessie

Penultimate Amazing
Nessie
Joined
Jun 16, 2012
Messages
16,177
The new PM Teresa May has made it clear she will be invoking Article 50 at the moment, primarily due to SNP demands and the Scottish remain vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36819182

"Mrs May also said she would not trigger article 50 - the formal process of the UK leaving the EU - until there was a "UK approach and objectives"."

As it stands it look very like the choice for Westminster is leave the EU, lose Scotland, stay in the EU, keep Scotland.

I presently think remain and keep Scotland is the more likely outcome.
 
I don't think so. A process that complex is too easy to sabotage, and there'll be no shortage of people eager and able to do that. Possibly including the Prime Minister.

Something as simple as a NATO-Russia war will see the whole thing abandoned, mark my words. :cool:
 
Unfortunately, Brexit will happen unless I suppose things go so bad that there's demand for a second referendum. Having said that given the quality of the new Brexit ministers I suppose it's less likely than a week ago.
 
Mid said:
Having said that given the quality of the new Brexit ministers I suppose it's less likely than a week ago.
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I tend to agree. All the time they are left in the kitchen munching their way through Christmas pudding there is the possibility they could find a six pence.

That is assuming chef put some in the mix.
 
Nessie said:
The new PM Teresa May has made it clear she will be invoking Article 50 at the moment, primarily due to SNP demands and the Scottish remain vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36819182

"Mrs May also said she would not trigger article 50 - the formal process of the UK leaving the EU - until there was a "UK approach and objectives"."

As it stands it look very like the choice for Westminster is leave the EU, lose Scotland, stay in the EU, keep Scotland.

I presently think remain and keep Scotland is the more likely outcome.
Click to expand...

I think this is a rather peculiar interpretation of what May actually said which to me read like 'I don't have a plan yet so I'm doing committing to anything until I do. If someone wants to suggest something I will listen to it but then I will do what I decide is best'

Not triggering Article 50 has almost nothing to do with Scotland and almost everything to do with not actually being clear what they would do after they triggered it.

I would think that a bookie would make Leave and Scotland stays the most likely option right now.
 
Francesca R said:
You mean Holyrood is going to drag the UK back into the EU again it's will? Oh noes.
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You mean England and Wales, excluding London in what history will record as a largely fact free campaign that produced a marginal result.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
I think this is a rather peculiar interpretation of what May actually said which to me read like 'I don't have a plan yet so I'm doing committing to anything until I do. If someone wants to suggest something I will listen to it but then I will do what I decide is best'

Not triggering Article 50 has almost nothing to do with Scotland and almost everything to do with not actually being clear what they would do after they triggered it.

I would think that a bookie would make Leave and Scotland stays the most likely option right now.
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This "plan" may never materialize. Beginning of next year Will slip six months, then six more, then be forgotten like so many things in government.
 
BobTheCoward said:
This "plan" may never materialize. Beginning of next year Will slip six months, then six more, then be forgotten like so many things in government.
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It's possible but I'd be very surprised if that was the case.

Let's not forget that there are a LOT of Brexiteers in the ranks of the Conservative Party and May has a majority of about a dozen in parliament.

If she doesn't appear to be progressing Leave then she won't be PM very long.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
It's possible but I'd be very surprised if that was the case.

Let's not forget that there are a LOT of Brexiteers in the ranks of the Conservative Party and May has a majority of about a dozen in parliament.

If she doesn't appear to be progressing Leave then she won't be PM very long.
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And then resets the time needed to develop a leave plan.
 
My personal guess is she will first have the Brexit leaders make complete eels out of themselves trying to compose a sensible strategy of Brexit, then just sink it one way or another.

That's what I'd do at any rate. Her first step matches my plan precisely.

McHrozni
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Let's not forget that there are a LOT of Brexiteers in the ranks of the Conservative Party and May has a majority of about a dozen in parliament.
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A parliamentary majority is not something to give up lightly.

If she doesn't appear to be progressing Leave then she won't be PM very long.
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The failure will be David Davis's. Cue Gove's return and a complete re-start.

Or something. "Events, dear boy, events" (MacMillan?).
 
CapelDodger said:
Quite. The first reset might come when the Foreign Secretary has to go following some appalling faux pas (long odds, I know, but not impossible).
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Maybe the Brexit Secretary will go first. Here he is on the telly.
Speaking to Sky News, Mr Davis dismissed claims by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that Scotland could remain in both the EU and the UK.

"I don't think that works. One of our really challenging issues to deal with will be the internal border we have with southern Ireland, and we are not going to go about creating other internal borders inside the United Kingdom," he said.​
The Sky report at once corrected that faux pas thus
He said the Brexit decision meant there would be a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which posed a problem, and said it would be a mistake to create another border between England and Scotland.​
 
Craig B said:
Maybe the Brexit Secretary will go first. Here he is on the telly.
Speaking to Sky News, Mr Davis dismissed claims by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that Scotland could remain in both the EU and the UK.

"I don't think that works. One of our really challenging issues to deal with will be the internal border we have with southern Ireland, and we are not going to go about creating other internal borders inside the United Kingdom," he said.​
The Sky report at once corrected that faux pas thus
He said the Brexit decision meant there would be a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which posed a problem, and said it would be a mistake to create another border between England and Scotland.​
Click to expand...
Oh lordy. What decade are these people living in?
 
Given the drastic financial and economic response and political predicaments that have happened just by even saying they want to Brexit, it is likely they are dreading how much worse it will get when they do trigger Article 50. So I expect they are scrambling for both the best trade deals they can get in place before the event, and also looking for some way to defer the decision permanently. Unfortunately, though, there is no winding back the clock. The damage has been done and the Brexit "heroes" have turned tail and run away.
 
Norman Alexander said:
... Unfortunately, though, there is no winding back the clock. The damage has been done and the Brexit "heroes" have turned tail and run away.
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The chief of the Remainers, and head of government of the UK, has followed their example.
 
I think he set the example - he was the first to go.

In contrast, some of the leading lights of Leave have now been promoted to key government posts.
 
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