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What would it take? Precognition

The 3rd eye

Student
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Aug 11, 2006
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What would it take for a sekeptic to belive in precognition?

I have asked my self this question many a time and only found ways of poking holes in the truth.
 
Make a series of predictions, let's say ten. Make them easily and unambiguously verifiable and write them out. Be as specific as possible. Names, dates, numbers, places. Things like:

This team will win the World Series in 2007.

This person will win the US presidential election in 2008. Bonus points: give percentages of votes won.

The Dow will close up/down by X points on this date.

This person will pass away on this date, cause of death [fill in the blank].

The economy of [nation] will grow/shrink by X per cent in 2007.

You get the idea. Write them down, sign and date, sealing in an envelope. Put your signature across the flap of the envelope and send a copy to the JREF, yourself and a disinterested third party, perhaps a well-known journalist with the arrangement that all know they will be coming and that they are to be stored unopened until a specified date. Certified mail, return receipt requested.

On the pre-arranged date all three parties meet to open the envelopes, with witnesses, compare to make sure all three parties have the same copy, and then proceed to evaluate the predictions.

Then I might consider it if more predictions were accurate then what would be predicted by chance alone. Until then? I doubt it.
 
Or, post them here and have someone else quote your entire post.
 
In order for precognition to work, wouldn't an even which has not yet occurred have to somehow "broadcast" information about itself backwards in time to the receiver?
This simple outline contains so many violations of known laws of physics as to make the mind boggle.
 
Make a series of predictions, let's say ten. Make them easily and unambiguously verifiable and write them out. Be as specific as possible. Names, dates, numbers, places. Things like:

This team will win the World Series in 2007.

This person will win the US presidential election in 2008. Bonus points: give percentages of votes won.

The Dow will close up/down by X points on this date.

This person will pass away on this date, cause of death [fill in the blank].

The economy of [nation] will grow/shrink by X per cent in 2007.

You get the idea. Write them down, sign and date, sealing in an envelope. Put your signature across the flap of the envelope and send a copy to the JREF, yourself and a disinterested third party, perhaps a well-known journalist with the arrangement that all know they will be coming and that they are to be stored unopened until a specified date. Certified mail, return receipt requested.

On the pre-arranged date all three parties meet to open the envelopes, with witnesses, compare to make sure all three parties have the same copy, and then proceed to evaluate the predictions.

Then I might consider it if more predictions were accurate then what would be predicted by chance alone. Until then? I doubt it.


What makes you so sure that someone who has preditions can see the future of people who arent around them or evnts that dont effect that persons life.

If i did dream of the future why would i dream of a plane thats going to crash tomarow ? Im not attached to it, It doesnt effect my life,


I find this is a repetitive theme from skeptics that they expect you know all once you can see the future.
 
What would it take for a sekeptic to belive in precognition?
As with all such claims, in order to propose a test for the claim, the claimant must first describe, with specifics, what it is he or she claims to be able to do.

Then you will have no cause to complain about skeptics assuming anything.
 
What makes you so sure that someone who has preditions can see the future of people who arent around them or evnts that dont effect that persons life.

If i did dream of the future why would i dream of a plane thats going to crash tomarow ? Im not attached to it, It doesnt effect my life,


I find this is a repetitive theme from skeptics that they expect you know all once you can see the future.


Ok then, perhaps you can tell us the parameters under which your precognitive powers work? Then we can work from that.
 
What makes you so sure that someone who has preditions can see the future of people who arent around them or evnts that dont effect that persons life.

If i did dream of the future why would i dream of a plane thats going to crash tomarow ? Im not attached to it, It doesnt effect my life,


I find this is a repetitive theme from skeptics that they expect you know all once you can see the future.

Why don't you just describe your claim? Tell us what you can and can't predict, with what degree of accuracy, etc.

Offhand, I'd say that good evidence of precognition would require:

1) That you record a series of predictions at the time you make them.

This is needed to avoid simply cherry-picking your hits and ignoring your misses. Even if you were trying to be 100% honest, confirmation bias means that you'd be likely to forget some of your misses but remember your hits.

2) That the predictions be sufficiently definite so that it will be fairly clear what constitutes a "hit." For example, if your "prediction" is "something bad is going to happen soon to a member of my family," that's hopelessly vague -- we'd end up arguing later over whether something is sufficiently "bad" or "soon," or who counts as "family."

3) That the events must be things that you can't influence, intentionally or otherwise. If you "predict" that you're going to screw up your big presentation at work tomorrow, and you do indeed screw it up, is that proof of precognition or of the importance of confidence?

4) That the number of predictions, and the probability of the results predicted, be sufficient to make it extremely unlikely that you simply got lucky.

I'm sure others can add to or clarify this, but it's a start.
 
What makes you so sure that someone who has preditions can see the future of people who arent around them or evnts that dont effect that persons life.
You asked "What would it take for a sekeptic to belive in precognition?", and we told you. We were going by our definition of precognition. If you have a different one and shared it with us, perhaps we can come to an agreement.

If i did dream of the future why would i dream of a plane thats going to crash tomarow ? Im not attached to it, It doesnt effect my life,
The statement "A plane will crash in the future" is insufficient to warrant a belief in precognition. The bar is set higher than that. It does not take a precognitive ability to say that planes will crash in the future, and have that come true.

I find this is a repetitive theme from skeptics that they expect you know all once you can see the future.
Not all. Just a sufficient amount to convince.

It's also important to remember that accuracy does not imply precognition either. The subject matter is important as well. "There will be an eclipse in the future" is not an example of precognition... and neither is "There will be a total solar eclipse on August 1, 2008".
 
What would it take for a sekeptic to belive in precognition?

I have asked my self this question many a time and only found ways of poking holes in the truth.


Hmmm....

I know i could help alot of people with the ability to win the lotto but i have to prove this to my self before i decide to prove it to the world. And theres easyer ways to prove it to my self.

Sure if i can win the lotto then surely i can take the Challange.

You have your own answer - you claim to be able to win Lotto: go ahead.

Use the money to quit your $7/hour job and travel down to Florida and claim Randi's mio.

Piece of cake.

Hey, what suit is Randi wearing when he hands you the mio?

Is there some kind of reverse school around somewhere which churns these guys out? Unbelievable.
 
What makes you so sure that someone who has preditions can see the future of people who arent around them or evnts that dont effect that persons life.

If i did dream of the future why would i dream of a plane thats going to crash tomarow ? Im not attached to it, It doesnt effect my life,

I find this is a repetitive theme from skeptics that they expect you know all once you can see the future.

I think that everyone here has given you some good answers. Beleth has some good points, too, when asking about the definition of "precognition". It's important to establish what people mean when they use the words they use.

Basically, what most skeptical folks around these parts would require is that the precognition be significantly different than just guessing.

Guessing includes: making vague statements that have to be interpreted to fit the event after the event has occured. It also includes making predictions about things that happen, generally: e.g., planes crashing (as has been pointed out), wars, famines, economic troubles, birth defects, earthquakes and other natural disasters, etc.

Your statement about the lottery is spot on in regards to what we're looking for. Pick a lottery, preferably one that announces its results online in a regular fashion. Let us know the date for which you'll be predicting. Predict the numbers, and explain what your criteria for success is: for example, do you claim to get every number right? Or just half? Three out of five? In the case of double-digit numbers, would you count a reversed number as a "hit" (i.e., if you guess 31, and the number is 13)? Doing that, and doing so successfully, would go a long ways towards making me take notice (can't speak for anyone else). I'd still be skeptical, but it certainly would be extremely interesting. : )
 
To predict, you should be able to recognize patterns, and we can only see those which are related to regular events

On the other hand, "time itself" (assuming we can talk about it as some kind of entity) is just a flux, we are in the middle of it, so to speak, and we cant do nothing but flow

Oh well, I hope you grasp the idea
 

Are you claiming anything? IN that other thread, you just seem to be asking questions.

Here you indicate that maybe you think you've dreams of future events. If that's so, I'd strongly encourage you to write them down as soon as possible (meaning before they are fulfilled). It's very easy to confuse the sequence of things in memory.

It's also easy to ready precognition into deja vu experiences. I've had deja vu where I'd swear (after the fact) that I knew that would happen, then I'd say this, then someone else would say that. Trouble is I could never have said those things would happen BEFORE they actually happened.
 
Predictions fall victim to "false accuracy", which is what the comments here are working to rule out. Predictions are only as valid as their specifics. A general prediciton can fit so many differnet events that it's effectively meaningless; any prediction must be specific to avoid this. For example, consider the following statements:

1. Something bad will happen somewhere at some time.
2. Something bad will happen somewhere within the next month.
3. A plane crash will happen somewhere within the next month.
4. A plane crash will happen in Germany within the next month.
5. A 767 will crash in Germany within the next month.
6. A 767, tail number NB-467, will crash in Hamburg, Germany, at 4:15PM (local time) on the 30th of April.

Now, 1 to 3 are so general as to be useless. They don't prove anything. The situations they describe are true more often than not, just by chance. Starting at 4 it gets interesting, but only somewhat. Predictions like number 4 could lead to statisitical proof, if enough of them were made and they held true. The same with 5, although it's quite a bit more specific and thus would be easier to prove statistically. Number 6, once you're cleared of any possibility of terrorist actions or sabotage, would go a long way towards convincing me of the possibility of precognition.

But that's the problem. Most predicitons fall into the ranges of numbers 1 to 3, especially dreams. A person dreams of someone close being hurt, for example. At almost any point in my life, someone in my family (brother, parent, uncle, cousin, close frined of the family, etc) has been ill or injured. Unless you can place a time limit on the dream, or specifics that are predicted, rather than an after-the-fact "Hey, I dreamed that!", it's uncertain.

There's also the pragmatic way to look at it. It's precognition if you have enough information to prevent or modify the outcome of the prediction. If your dream is so vague that no realistic measure could be taken to affect what you dreamt of, it's not precognition.

Especially with dreams, as well, you have mental factors. The easiest way to avoid those is to write down dreams as soon as you wake in the morning, keeping a journal, and write down as much detail as you can. Dreams, by their nature, are vague and fluid (most often). The mind fills in the details to join disjointed images and thoughts into a story of sorts. It's VERY easy, after the fact, for the mind to continue to embellish the memory of the dream by plugging in details. For example, a vague dream of danger to a loved one can easily become, in the mind, a dream of predicting a car wreck for your wife after the event (the wreck) has actually happened, even though the dream may have been nothing but the vague feelings with no details.
 

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