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Variable Paranormal Ability?

The idea

Graduate Poster
T
Joined
Jul 31, 2003
Messages
1,540
What if someone makes a claim of the following sort:

(1) "On September 28th, 2004, I will be able to levitate one small object having a mass of 20 grams or less for a period of 20 seconds."

(2) "On October 27th, 2004, I will be able to close my eyes and see the serial numbers on money in the pockets of people within twelve feet of where I am."

(3) "On November 26th, 2004, I will be able to restore the sight of a blind person."

(4) "On December 25th, 2004, I will be able to make a Christmas tree grow, for a few seconds, so quickly that an alert observer will see it visibly moving."

Would a series of different and temporary abilities of that sort be eligible for the million dollar prize?
 
It seems rather theoretical to me ...

The most important thing is if it can be tested, and Randi demands two tests: the preliminary test that is not so rigorous (but enough so that noone has passed it until now), and the formal test.

How this variable claim should be tested twice, I do not know.

Randi also has other restrictions: He dismisses people whose claim is particularly improbable, like the cloud-forming claims, and he also does not accept claims that are life-threatening. Claims that are too cumbersome to test are also dismissed (like claims that will take an inordinate time to test, or demand too many resources).
 
The ability has to be repeatable. If you're talking about a one-time ability, there is no way to test that.

In the prelim, the claimant generally performs to show the ability and then adjustments are made to the testing procedure to eliminate possible avenues of cheating. Obviously, a one-time feat doesn't allow for this, and I think you won't qualify becuase of this.
 
Hand Bent Spoon said:
Obviously, a one-time feat doesn't allow for this [...]
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The question is about a series of feats rather than a single one-time feat.

Hand Bent Spoon said:
and I think you won't qualify because of this.
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I don't have any kind of paranormal ability. I'm not trying to qualify. However, it would seem that a genuine paranormal ability might be dynamic rather than fixed. In fact, someone seems more likely to develop a clever cheating system for a single task than for a variety of tasks.
 
How is a variable ability any different from a one-time ability? The ability would have to be repeated in order to be tested. So if you can levetate once today, read someone's mind once tomorrow, etc. it would be quite impossible to test it. Unless the abilities go through a repeating cycle. In that case, you could test the ability as it becomes available, while waiting during the intervening days or weeks for the ability to become available again. Possible, but difficult, tiresome, and more prone to a cheat getting through (as the cheating claimant uses the intervening days to refine/alter the technique).

Indeed, it would be easier to cheat using the variable ability excuse, as opposed to having just one ability that can be performed at will.
 
Hand Bent Spoon said:
Indeed, it would be easier to cheat using the variable ability excuse, as opposed to having just one ability that can be performed at will.
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Then why do people who do cold reading not also bend spoons and find hidden underground water? Even if you are right, what about the possibility that there are people who have genuine paranormal abilities that are variable but no people who have fixed paranormal abilities? If it is incovenient to test something, does that mean that it doesn't exist?
 
Sounds like more fogwash to me.

I think that given the fact that the claimant is stating that one of thier abilities is to know what power trhey will have, there is a basis for the preliminary.

1. "I have the power to know which day I will be granted an ability that is paranormal".
2. The claimant for the preliminary gets to demonstrate that they can predict and demonstrate a paranormal ability on a given day under the agreed to terms to test that ability.
3. If the claimant can demostrate the predicted ability on the date predicted under the test conditions, then they have passed the preliminary.
4. The formal testing is agreed to and set up, again the claimant will predict which day they will exhibit which power. As part of the formal test the claimant may be asked to demonstrate the ability to predict and the ability to use a paranormal power on more than one occasion. There may be a three out of four situation agreed to.
5. The claimant then goes through formal testing. The claimant has a number of oppotunities to predict and demonstrate a paranormal power under the stated test conditions, if the claimant predicts the required number of tests and demonstartes the paranormal abilty at the required number of tests the claimant wins the prize.

The claimant would still have the usual protocols to control for effects and abilities that are other than psychic. They can't walk around New York City just waiting for thier ability to come upon them. If they do that then the protocol would have to involve some ad hoc rules to insure controls. These could be stated in advance.
 
The idea said:

If it is incovenient to test something, does that mean that it doesn't exist?
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Gosh no Mr. Idea, that is why particle physics at one point invoved mountain climbing, the pion was discovered in a pack of plates left on a mountain top.
Difficulty is usualy not the issue, clarity on the other hand is. What is being tested determines how it is tested.
 
The idea said:

Then why do people who do cold reading not also bend spoons and find hidden underground water? Even if you are right, what about the possibility that there are people who have genuine paranormal abilities that are variable but no people who have fixed paranormal abilities? If it is incovenient to test something, does that mean that it doesn't exist?
Click to expand...

Ever hear of Uri Gellar? He is quite the bag of tricks, and I do mean tricks. ;)

Conveniece has nothing to do with the ability existing, but getting the JREF to test it can't be too much of a hassle, because chances are the 'ability' isn't genuine and you'd be jumping through some very difficult hoops for very little return (oops! Another fake.) How much inconvenience is too much? You'll have to ask them. I think they are very accomodating, but even they have their limits (of both time and patience).

It remains possible to test a variable ability, so long as the abilities repeat in a predictable fashion, and remain exactly the same each time they appear. Plus, you'd have the additional headache of designing multiple protocols, one for each (if you wanted to test for all of them; but why bother when simply repeating one genuine ability would win the prize?)
 
The $1 million dollar prize is not a priviledge to anyone with a strange paranormal power(if such people exist). You have to be able to test a paranormal ability in a scientific environment, otherwise: Too bad.
 
Yes, ask that guy who saw a UFO/flying hat in a video of 9/11. . . .

--J.D.
 
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