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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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I don't hold Special Report 14 to be a holy grail.
Then stop holding it up and singing hallelujah every other post as if your fallacious statement about it hasn't been shown for the crock of crap that it is.

Certainly there are evaluations as are mentioned in SUNlite associated with Special Report 14 and other studies, however that does not minimize the results because they knew all that going into the study in the first place. We are also dealing with probabilities, not concrete proof. In other words, knowing the above at the start, they still ended up with the statistical results as I stated. Then some after the fact efforts were made to try to eliminate all unknowns, and what these add up to is a reflection of how much they turned up their bias dial ( Bias: STATISTICS distortion of results: the distortion of a set of statistical results by a variable not considered in the calculation, or the variable itself ). Turn it up far enough and sure, all sightings could possibly be explained by something mundane.
So you've got enough time to dodge the bullet here, but still haven't got the time to actually post the relevant section they say what you claim they say about some of these objects being alien craft? :boggled:

But what we are really dealing with in plain terms is a margin of error. Some are of the opinion that the margin of error is sufficient to explain all the unknowns while other people of the opposite opinion, and I fall in the latter group because those who did the investigating at the time ( not the statisticians ) also took those factors into account at the time and were in a much better position because of their expertise to make the judgement calls.
Cool, then you'll be able to point specifically to the part where one of the statisticians backs up your silly statement about "some of these objects being alien craft"?
Because at the moment, it look like you're backing away from that claim and trying to go down the "some anonymous people may have thought this and I believe them"... which is a completely different kettle of fish.

Do I think this means they were always right? No. I'm willing to conceed that there were probably some unknowns that weren't alien craft ... perhaps quite a few. But add to that all the civilian sightings and I still maintain that the probabilities that craft unknown to our technology and civilization or more succinctly alien craft, are a virtual certainty.
So now it's just you that thinks that?
What's happened to the USAF intelligence agents who apparently agreed with you only a few posts ago?
 
Your accusations of lies are prejudicial and unfounded. I've posted independent dictionary definitions for both "unknown" and "alien" within the proper context of this dicussion along with the primary synonyms for each; each word has the other as a synonym, and the word "alien" does not necessitate ET. So enough of your slander and bad mouthing. Keep your comments civil and in context.


"The cause of the crash is as yet unknown."

Aliens caused the crash.
 
"The cause of the crash is as yet unknown."

Aliens caused the crash.


Or, to keep it closer to ufology's repeated nonsense:

"What is that thing up in the sky?"

"I don't know."

"It's unknown? Wow! An alien craft!"

:boggled:
 
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ehcks,

Thanks for making an excellent point. There is no reasonable way to back the claim that given the number and quality of reports that have accumulated that the margin of error is equal to or greater than 100%. Therefore there must be, among the reports someplace, at least one that represents an alien craft. The problem is determining which ones those are on a case by case basis. That gets very difficult. One of the best I've seen so far is the 1952 DC RADAR/Visual intercept incident we've been discussing. I've heard more sesational accounts, but the DC case was so well publicized that claiming it didn't happen isn't reasonable, the specific incident within the larger flap was also well publicized and corroborated, it too is worth taking seriously. Still, even this incident isn't sufficient as proof ... only as evidence to take the claim of alien craft seriously enough to continue studying the various other reports, interviewing witnesses, watching the sky and so on.
Must be, fug? Must be just one incident of something we don't even know exists? Why must there be? Because if there isn't just one little alien space ship amongst all that paperwork your whole belief system comes a'tumblin' down? Is that why?
 
[I've heard more sesational accounts, but the DC case was so well publicized that claiming it didn't happen isn't reasonable, the specific incident within the larger flap was also well publicized and corroborated, it too is worth taking seriously.[/SIZE][/FONT]


Because we all know that everything reported in the news is always correct, yes?

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/doubleissue/mysteries/great.htm

http://dailyperspective.newspaperar...erspective/2009-10-19/top-hoaxes-news-history

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2011/011411-wikipedia-hoaxes.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0330/p18s01-hfks.html
 
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Well time to log off again. NOTE: I'm going to have to make a schedule to participate here because left unchecked it takes up too much of my time. I'll post it up when I decide what it's going to be. In the meantime cheers and all the best to everyone.
 
Hopefully, when J. Randall Murphy returns from hand-coding the HTML for his online bookstore, he can get around to addressing the substance of my previous posts:

The thing is, you don't know that you've seen an alien craft; you just believe you did. You saw what you saw—whatever it was—and assumed it was an alien spacecraft, when the simple fact is you have no possible way of knowing that whatever you saw was alien, or even a "craft" as such.

For all you know, it only appeared to be the size of two Volkswagens, and only appeared to perform the "extraordinary maneuvers" that you think you saw it perform, on the scale you believe it was. In reality, it might have actually been much smaller and closer than you think it was, and it might have even been a number of different objects that you unconsciously conflated into a single one. Your perception of the experience might have been erroneous, and of course your memory might also be completely distorted by countless re-tellings and mental revisions of the story over the past 40-some odd years.

Lots of posters in this thread are content to forward the (gently mocking) assumption that whatever you saw was a firefly, but I won't even go that far. While a firefly might certainly be a reasonable explanation under some circumstances, we have no way of knowing it was a firefly, any more than any other mundane phenomenon. There's simply not enough information to know for sure, and there certainly is no evidence to support the conclusion of anything extraordinary.

Even if indeed you saw exactly what you claim to have seen, then the best opinion you can offer about its identity with any degree of certainty is that it is unknown. And I don't mean "unknown" as in "something alien from another planet," nor "unknown" as in "something of non-human manufacture." I'm saying "unknown" in the classic English definition that you quite simply "don't know what the hell it was." You cannot make any such determination with any confidence because there's absolutely no evidence to support that determination. The total and complete lack of evidence that your "sighting" was an alien craft is roughly equivalent to the lack of evidence that it was a flying witch on a broomstick, a will 'o' the wisp, an angel, a portal to Hell, or anything else that has likewise never been shown to exist.

Of course, nothing's stopping you from making the assumption, or proverbial WAG ("wild-ass guess") that what you saw was an alien craft (or a witch, will 'o' the wisp, etc. for that matter), but you should at least have the forthrightness to admit that your conclusion is a "wild-ass guess" and not a certain fact. You should at the very least be able to acknowledge that neither you nor anyone else has any actual evidence on which to claim the existence of extraterrestrial life (let alone ET intelligence or technology). You should at least be honest enough to refrain from asserting this nonsense about "firsthand knowledge," and "scientific evidence" versus "anecdotal evidence." Evidence is evidence. Anecdotes do not constitute evidence. Anecdotes are claims, and claims do not represent evidence for themselves, no matter who's telling them. Evidence is the stuff that is required to validate claims.

The kind of analysis, logical weighing of evidence, and intellectual honesty that I just described is the fundamental procedure of critical thinking. It is the exact opposite of making determinations of unproven things without any evidence. It's also the basis of Dr. Sagan's ECREE quote, which is not, as you claim, a biased assumption, but the logical extent of critical analysis when applied to so-called "extraordinary" claims, ie. claims of the existence of things which have never been proven to exist.

You saw an apparent moving light in the sky and just assumed it was an alien spacecraft because of the way it apparently moved. But the fact is, it was just as likely to have been a flying witch, a fairy, a will 'o' the wisp, a portal to Hell or anything else that has never been proven to exist. Or it might have been some strange, unidentified atmospheric phenomenon (perhaps some kind of plasma effect, "ball-lightning" or whatnot). But most likely, it was simply a mundane earthly object, phenomenon, and/or optical illusion that you mistook for a flying object and assumed to be something extraterrestrial.

Seeing something which you cannot identify does not constitute evidence that you've seen an alien spacecraft, no matter how much obtuse wordplay you try to perform. Without any physical evidence for scientists to examine for clues as to its origin, you simply have no way of knowing what the "thing" you saw was. Your insistence that it was "alien" all comes down to your own credulity and nothing else.

So you don't know you've seen an alien craft. You just think you know, in the same way that a Christian might think he knows that Jesus is his "Personal Lord and Savior." In other words, you don't really know; you simply believe. Your belief is unshakable, and is not supported by a single shred of evidence, therefore it's taken on faith. You have faith that what you saw was extraterrestrial craft, based solely on personal experience, the word of popular folklore, and your own subjective feelings on the matter.


Strange that he doesn't deem it important enough to respond to the charges that his claims about the Battelle study are bald-faced lies.

"Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is considered to be highly improbable that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technological developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge.

—p. 94, Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, a.k.a. the "Battelle Study"
http://www.scribd.com/bren_burton/d...ion-The-Investigation-of-UFO-s-22nd-Sept-1993
 
Well time to log off again. NOTE: I'm going to have to make a schedule to participate here because left unchecked it takes up too much of my time. I'll post it up when I decide what it's going to be. In the meantime cheers and all the best to everyone.


Time better spent changing your firefly story on your website?

You seriously think people care whether or not you show up here and at what time? Please, only post your schedule if you think you're part of some kind of comedy act because even telling us that you're going to post it is enough to induce laughter.

ETA: And just so you know, I don't usually come here to read your posts, I'm more interested in the replies and I'm pretty sure most people reading but not participating would be the same. Your conceit is duly noted though.
 
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Well time to log off again. NOTE: I'm going to have to make a schedule to participate here because left unchecked it takes up too much of my time. I'll post it up when I decide what it's going to be. In the meantime cheers and all the best to everyone.

When you return, you need to address your blatant dishonesty and outright lying.
 
When you return, you need to address your blatant dishonesty and outright lying.
UFO-barrel.jpg
 
An entertaining, but false analogy. Apart from the fact that we're not talking about strawberries, The USAF investigations for a certain number of sightings were able to conclude beyond a reasonable doubt that misperceptions, hoaxes and such were not the cause.


I notice that you don't mention that they were able to eliminate witches.

Telling.


So this part, "The witnesses may be lying or just misperceived events so bad that we can not resolve the remaining cases." doesn't apply to those cases.


Unless we aren't as religiously devoted to the infallibility of a 60-year-old report as your average ufologist witch denier is.


The reason, if any that continued investigation hasn't produced any material evidence is because the craft are so much further advanced that they have complete impunity, and given this state of affairs, even if one were captured by some freak of circumstance ( like a crash ) the secretive nature of the DoD and advanced weaponry would never facilitate public scrutiny.


That's not a reason. It's just some fanciful dreck that you made up all by yourself.


All we would have are rumors, and as you know they abound.


As do talking rabbits. Abounding all over the place they are, the little blighters.
 
But what we are really dealing with in plain terms is a margin of error. Some are of the opinion that the margin of error is sufficient to explain all the unknowns while other people of the opposite opinion, and I fall in the latter group because those who did the investigating at the time ( not the statisticians ) also took those factors into account at the time and were in a much better position because of their expertise to make the judgement calls. Do I think this means they were always right? No. I'm willing to conceed that there were probably some unknowns that weren't alien craft ... perhaps quite a few. But add to that all the civilian sightings and I still maintain that the probabilities that craft unknown to our technology and civilization or more succinctly alien craft, are a virtual certainty. However do I think that such probabilities quailfy as proof? No. A "holy grail" as the article puts it, wouldn't simply, "seem to indicate good good UFO reports are actual physical craft of some unknown origin." So far as I am concerned reports in and of themselves prove nothing material. The holy grail would be the craft backed by some hard lined verification regarding it's point of origin.

You seem to think that BBSR14 involved in depth investigations of the events. It did not. It was an office exercise. They sat at desks evaluating the raw reports. That was all they did. They attempted to see if it was possible they could be explained from what they had. As previously noted, a lot of these were simply a single report with nothing more than that. You have to realize that after project Sign, the USAF did not expend a lot of manpower on the problem. Each base was assigned a UFO officer. This was a secondary duty and if the officer was not very motivated, you did not get a very good investigation. So, stating these cases that were evaluated had thorough investigations is not understanding what transpired in the Battelle study.
 
More misrepresentation above. I'm not trying trying to "convince everyone that the word 'unknown' means 'extraterrestrial.'"
If you actually read my posts I've consistently said that alien does not necessitate ET. By continuing to spout misinformation you are only undermining your cause.


Which reminds me. You forgot to respond to these posts earlier.


Why don't you share your thoughts on some of the other possibilities with us?


  • Unexplained natural phenomena. Examples would be the Earthlights theory or the ball lighting theory.


Natural phenomena are included in the mundane category, no matter what fanciful names you give them.


  • A human effort that is so secret that it is virtually cut off from civilization. This would be something beyond projects like those that that take place at Area 51 or other super-secret installations.


Let's hear your explanation for how an aerospace industry with capabilities above and beyond those of the one we know about plus all the infrastructure needed to support it are able to operate without a single trace of its existence ever having been revealed and without a single one of the thousands of people such an effort would require ever having spilled the beans.

This idea is even more unlikely than the space invaders one.


  • Perhaps we share the planet with an unknown cuture or species capable of producing craft that match the description of UFOs.


To start with, the highlighted phrase is invalid.

They're unidentified, Folo, and therefore you don't get to describe them as 'craft'.

Secondly, this scenario is even less likely than the secret human agency mentioned above. The same objections apply with the added one that you have to come up with an explanation for where these already-here aliens originated.

You're not a Hollow Earther™ are you?


  • Some people have proposed time travelers from Earth's future. However I don't personally see backwards time travel as possible in any way that could make this theory possible.


Really???

All you're actually doing here is trying to come up with scenarios so ridiculous that the space aliens idea seems more plausible by comparison.

And failing dismally.



Akhenaten7936602 said:
So if some guy claimed to see something the size of two VW beetles welded together, and it broke the sound barrier without the displaced air making a "sonic boom", thus violating the laws of physics it would not represent an alien space vessel?


You are referring to my sighting or something similar and I do believe what I saw was an alien craft.


That's the whole problem. Despite a complete lack of evidence you'll hold onto that belief until your last gasp and it makes it impossible for you to approach the subject of UFOs ( Unidentified Flying Objects ) in anything even vaguely resembling a logical manner.

As Mr Timbo says, it's become your religion, and as the famous Mr Anonymous once said, "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into."


However no evidence from my observation tells me that it came from space.


No evidence from your observation tells anyone that anything came from anywhere. It's just a story, and there is no evidence.


It came from behind a mountain. Where it was before that I don't know. My personal opinion is that space is not an unreasonable possibility because I don't see how the point of origin for such things could go undetected for so long here on Earth.


I'd be willing to bet that the only reason you've become so keen on positing a terrestrial origin for your UFOs ( "OMG . . . aliens!" ) is because even you realise that suggesting the occurrence of not one, not two or three, but scores and scores of extraterrestrial visitations is beyond ludicrous.

Attempting to substitute 'beyond ludicrous' with 'patently absurd' might work with other ufailogists, folo, but it'll never fly, supersonically or otherwise, in the real world.


As for breaking the sound barrier without making a sonic boom. Even as we speak scientists and engineers are developing ever quieter supersonic aircraft called QSSTs.


Your link doesn't work for me, however, I did find this:

The SAI Quiet Supersonic Transport (QSST) was a project by Supersonic Aerospace International (SAI) to develop a commercial supersonic business jet. As of 2011, no news is available about the current status of the project, and the company's website has been dormant since about 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAI_Quiet_Supersonic_Transport


You're supposed to be building men out of all that straw, folo, not clutching at it.
 
You seem to think that BBSR14 involved in depth investigations of the events. It did not. It was an office exercise. They sat at desks evaluating the raw reports. That was all they did. They attempted to see if it was possible they could be explained from what they had. As previously noted, a lot of these were simply a single report with nothing more than that. You have to realize that after project Sign, the USAF did not expend a lot of manpower on the problem. Each base was assigned a UFO officer. This was a secondary duty and if the officer was not very motivated, you did not get a very good investigation. So, stating these cases that were evaluated had thorough investigations is not understanding what transpired in the Battelle study.


Would you say it's appropriate to call the BBSR14 a "meta-analysis" of UFO reports?
 
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