Trump's Tariffs

[aleCcowaN]

Maybe not. The EU's retaliation will specifically target republican districts...

how come?

...and it will come within days of the Trump tariffs.

I doubt that. Months ago Trump banned 1.2 billion of biodiesel exports from Argentina and we're still trying to negotiate.

Sanctions from the WTO take time, and in the end Trump will have the States withdrawn from it.

 

[Horatius]

The wood used for framing around here is almost entirely imported, from Canada.

...and he was making noises about adding tariffs there, as well.

 

[MikeG]

Only if ecologically speaking a "Tree farm" and a "Forest" are the same thing.

Forests are complex eco systems. You can't chop them down, plant new ones, and have it all add up.

You can actually, other than in thin-soiled tropical regions. The re-planting bit is the one thing you don't do, as that tends to compress the soil and produce a mono-culture. Natural re-growth is the preferred option. Forestry is a thing, you know. All of which is beside the point. Comparing timber and steel was the point.......and burning massive amounts of fossil fuel to melt massive amounts of mined material is vastly more destructive than managed forestry.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

how come?

Reportedly, the EU has been working on a list for months now. Starting with a list from back when Bush jr was talking trade war.

I doubt that. Months ago Trump banned 1.2 billion of biodiesel exports from Argentina and we're still trying to negotiate.

Were those illegal?

Sanctions from the WTO take time, and in the end Trump will have the States withdrawn from it.

Punitive tariffs can be levied immediately. If the case before the WTO is lost, they have to be reimbursed.

 

[Trebuchet]

You can actually, other than in thin-soiled tropical regions. The re-planting bit is the one thing you don't do, as that tends to compress the soil and produce a mono-culture. Natural re-growth is the preferred option. Forestry is a thing, you know. All of which is beside the point. Comparing timber and steel was the point.......and burning massive amounts of fossil fuel to melt massive amounts of mined material is vastly more destructive than managed forestry.

Old-growth forests around here are 200-500 years old. Redwood forests in California are more like 2000. There's no replacing that.
ETA: That's the age of the trees, of course. The forests themselves are far older.

 

[MikeG]

There's nothing like having a bit of inside knowledge to help your share portfolio along. Not everyone involved with steel importing companies in the USA is going to take a big hit.

Gradiaun.

 

[BobTheCoward]

There's nothing like having a bit of inside knowledge to help your share portfolio along. Not everyone involved with steel importing companies in the USA is going to take a big hit.

Gradiaun.

What is the evidence he had insider knowledge?

 

[dudalb]

This was a campaign promise from Trump during the election.

Which does not make it any less a stupid m ove with disasterous consequences......

 

[blutoski]

There's no comparison. Wood is a crop. It grows, gets harvested, it re-grows. It is also sustainable, unlike steel, and is very low carbon. It is entirely wasteful to be using steel for something like stud walls.

You are right in principle, though, just chose a poor example to illustrate it. there will be substitution. Hopefully, one of the things substituted will be Trump.

I still think it's a good example. Deforestation of old growth destroys ecosystems, replacing them with a monocultured crop. A tree farm is not a forest.

Increasing domestic production of lumber is part of the reason Trump is deregistering millions of hectares from protected status while simultaneously jacking up lumber import tariffs. They will almost certainly be clearcut, and even if the trees are replaced, hundreds of species will go extinct.

 

[blutoski]

The wood used for framing around here is almost entirely imported, from Canada.

Which is something Trump has sworn to end, thus the anti-Canadian lumber tariffs introduced over the last year. It's only speculation, but since the current set has not impacted imports much, the industry is braced for increasing rounds.

ETA: US framing lumber overall is >90% domestic resourced.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Reportedly, the EU has been working on a list for months now. Starting with a list from back when Bush jr was talking trade war.

and how does it target republican districts? (that is what I asked)

Were those illegal?

With the excuse they have detected some internal tax devolutions of 9 to 11% they applied compensatory rights from 65 to 90%. That is "banning". [as some old crow is flying around this thread, I declare my next words on this will include "potatoe, potato"]

Punitive tariffs can be levied immediately. If the case before the WTO is lost, they have to be reimbursed.

But the matter is a political one. The USA is abusing of their power as nobody will "levy punitive tariffs immediately". They can, but they won't.

 

[aleCcowaN]

...and even if the trees are replaced, hundreds of species will go extinct.

isn't that a bit too much?

 

[blutoski]

...and he was making noises about adding tariffs there, as well.

Already has, a year ago. Expecting more.

 

[blutoski]

isn't that a bit too much?

Arguably, yes. Some people would say that even one species is too much.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

and how does it target republican districts? (that is what I asked)

Potentially in the EU's sights: items such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles, whose corporate headquarters is in House Speaker Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin. Bourbon is another target, having enjoyed a surge in exports to the EU. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's home state of Kentucky exported $154 million worth of bourbon to the EU, up from $128 million in 2016, according to data from the International Trade Commission.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/eu-...n-in-response-to-potential-trump-tariffs.html

With the excuse they have detected some internal tax devolutions of 9 to 11% they applied compensatory rights from 65 to 90%. That is "banning". [as some old crow is flying around this thread, I declare my next words on this will include "potatoe, potato"]

That sounds like the usual procedure on countervailing tariffs.

But the matter is a political one. The USA is abusing of their power as nobody will "levy punitive tariffs immediately". They can, but they won't.

The EU will. Juncker has been very clear.

 

[blutoski]

isn't that a bit too much?

Ah, I just realized you may have been asking if 100 species' extinction for clearcutting a few thousand hectares of North American old growth was an overestimation.

No, it's actually very conservative. "Ghost with Trembling Wings" is a recent nonfiction book on the topic of the Anthropocene aka Sixth Mass Extinction, which is our current biosphere era.

The main point, though, is that a tree farm is not a forest. It has <1% of the biodiversity.

 

[MikeG]

I still think it's a good example. Deforestation of old growth destroys ecosystems, replacing them with a monocultured crop. A tree farm is not a forest........

Demonstrating that you didn't bother reading what I wrote.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Potentially in the EU's sights: items such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles, whose corporate headquarters is in House Speaker Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin. Bourbon is another target, having enjoyed a surge in exports to the EU. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's home state of Kentucky exported $154 million worth of bourbon to the EU, up from $128 million in 2016, according to data from the International Trade Commission.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/eu-...n-in-response-to-potential-trump-tariffs.html

I think it'll mostly affect blue states and blue spots* it red states. Basically, the 45% support for Republicans amount to less than 30% of the economy. Country by county analysis are horrifying. A large mass of Trump supporters are poor people who'll remain poor for the rest of their life.

That sounds like the usual procedure on countervailing tariffs.

Not when they're VAT like taxes. But I agree, arbitrariness, lobbying and retaliation is everyday meal in the States.

The EU will. Juncker has been very clear.

I hope you're right, but I'm not betting anything on it. I'd like to see what are Ms May and company going to do about it.

* Presidential election- Milwaukee: Clinton 65%, Trump 28%

 

[Trebuchet]

Demonstrating that you didn't bother reading what I wrote.

You advocated natural reforestation, which would take 200-2000 years and ain't gonna happen.

 

[blutoski]

Demonstrating that you didn't bother reading what I wrote.

I did, but it didn't make sense. You're recommending reforesting, but that's not what American logging firms do, so not sure why you mentioned it. The old growth ecologies will take thousands of years to restore, assuming there is no initial extinction. Like: if we carefully captured each species and cultured them somehow for a couple thousand years to reintroduce them to the mature forest that was similar to the one that was cut down.

In the few states that have reforesting regulations, there is a push to scrap them and a federal government that is outright enthusiastic about it.

The point being that if this is a good substitution for downstream product shifting (eg: steel frames to aluminum, aluminum frames to softwood), that the ecological argument for steel tariffs is weakened.