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Trump's Second Term

shemp said:
Jesus Christ what a load of steaming hot ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ garbage! Another fellator!
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They'd issue the same simpering boilerplate ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ if Trump shuffled out to talk to the press naked from the waist down, with his own ◊◊◊◊ smeared into his hair, and clutching an inflatable sex doll that he kept referring to as "Ivanka".
 
dudalb said:
True, but you are missing is that intelligent people are supporitng and aiding him, thining they can exploit and use him for their own purposes.

You are forgetting the most obivious and common scapegoat of them all: The Jews.
We are definently hearing Anti Semitic rumblings in MAGA, and they will only grow stronger. Aand if they are strong enouhg, Trump will not hesistate to turn on the Jews.The man will do anything to stay in power.
All this is just more proof of my contention the chances are small this will have a peaceful ending.
A lot of people will have to choose between freedom and democracy and their pacifism; they can;t have both.
I also feel that some on the left will catch the disease but that is anothr story.
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I doubt it, his son-in-law Jared is Jewish and I think Ivanka converted. Also, he wouldn't want to upset Bibi,
 
LiteBright said:
These are American style odds. You can convert them to an implied probability. Here is what that yields.

2025 10%
2026 15.38%
2027 11.11%
2028 9.09%
2029 or later 73.54%

Does the site say where they are getting these numbers from? I am a professional gambler with accounts at 13 different outs and I don't see a single one offering odds on this. Furthermore, no site actually would offer those odds because there is virtually no overlay. It doesn't make sense numerically speaking. Perhaps an exchange as those work differently and often don't have an overlay or even a negative overlay.
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Where do these odds come from? Trump's father had Alzheimer's, and Trump himself is clearly cognitively challenged. That, together with his swollen ankles and tell-tale IVT marks on his hand indicating possible heart failure, not to mention his drooping jaw; there is no way he'll be around much longer than another couple of years, at most. At some point, the excessive fluid caused by heart failure will be too much for the body to cope with.
 
Vixen said:
Where do these odds come from?
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The odds are set according to how much is bet on each outcome. The higher the bets on an outcome, the lower the odds. Evidently, a large majority of bettors believe that Trump will see out his full term (hence the low odds for 2029 and later). This might not be a realistic belief but maths is maths.
 
Dan's the man it seems.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I am pleased to announce that the great Dan Scavino, in addition to remaining Deputy Chief of Staff of the Trump Administration, will head the White House Presidential Personnel Office, replacing Sergio Gor, who did a wonderful job in that position, and will now become the Ambassador to India. Dan will be responsible for the selection and appointment of almost all positions in government, a very big and important position. Congratulations Dan, you will do a fantastic job!!! President DJT
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So much winning

China opens probe into Qualcomm and imposes retaliatory fees on US ships
Moves come as Beijing seeks leverage over Washington in trade negotiations

China has launched an antitrust investigation against US chipmaker Qualcomm and imposed fees on American-owned ships docking at Chinese ports, as trade tensions mount between the two nations.

China’s State Administration for Market Regulation on Friday said Qualcomm failed to report its June acquisition of Israeli technology company Autotalks in accordance with the country’s
laws.

https://www.ft.com/content/6f7b8f0d-e051-4463-bfe1-626e8cdae785
 
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I've just sort of dismissed the posts on social media that say Trump has late stage symphilis. But actually, he could have gotten it after his son was born and ignored it. Melania probably had no sex with him for 15-20 years. And it's not like any normal people get tested for syphilis. They could have missed in 2017-2022. Wikipedia:
Meningovascular syphilis involves inflammation of the small and medium arteries of the central nervous system. It can present between 1–10 years after the initial infection. Meningovascular syphilis is characterized by stroke, cranial nerve palsies and spinal cord inflammation.[30] Late symptomatic neurosyphilis can develop decades after the original infection and includes 2 types; general paresis and tabes dorsalis. General paresis presents with dementia, personality changes, delusions, seizures, psychosis and depression.[30] Tabes dorsalis is characterized by gait instability, sharp pains in the trunk and limbs, impaired positional sensation of the limbs as well as having a positive Romberg's sign.
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He has the gait instability and dementia. Also vascular effects.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
I'm extremely doubtful Trump's decline is anything undiagnosed. He's not some average old guy who just avoids going to the doctor, and it's not as if they'll avoid running every test under the sun on cost grounds.
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Well, like I said, it could have been in the end of 2017-2020. If he had somectreatment (10 dsys of shots) many symptoms would remain. The destruction of nervous system parts. It would have made him even more determined to run and punish enemies.
 
Vixen said:
Where do these odds come from? Trump's father had Alzheimer's, and Trump himself is clearly cognitively challenged. That, together with his swollen ankles and tell-tale IVT marks on his hand indicating possible heart failure, not to mention his drooping jaw; there is no way he'll be around much longer than another couple of years, at most. At some point, the excessive fluid caused by heart failure will be too much for the body to cope with.
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I understand all that but that's not what these numbers are saying. They are saying the most likely outcome by far is that his presidency lasts beyond 2028.

The reason I ask where the odds come from is that they make no sense. No bookie in the world would offer these because they would get taken to the cleaners by anyone who understands the math behind it. So I am skeptical that these are being offered anywhere where someone can actually bet money on them.

Put another way, if I actually knew of a reputable book offering these numbers, I would be betting the max even if that meant I had to take money out of my retirement savings because its a better investment than the stock market.
 
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