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Trump's Second Term

newyorkguy said:
Someone explained to me the chart below indicates -- at least to the people at Oddschecker -- the most likely exit date for trump is next year, 2026. That if you bet $100 he'd be out of the White House by Dec 31 2026, a bookie would give you 5.5-to-1 odds. If you lost you'd lose one hundred bucks. If you won, you get five hundred fifty bucks.

That the odds this year are 9-to-1. In 2027 8-to-1. In 2028 10-to-1.

If you wanted to bet trump would leave in 2029 or later, the bettor would have to give the bookie odds. Have to bet $278 in order to win $100.

View attachment 64628
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These are American style odds. You can convert them to an implied probability. Here is what that yields.

2025 10%
2026 15.38%
2027 11.11%
2028 9.09%
2029 or later 73.54%

Does the site say where they are getting these numbers from? I am a professional gambler with accounts at 13 different outs and I don't see a single one offering odds on this. Furthermore, no site actually would offer those odds because there is virtually no overlay. It doesn't make sense numerically speaking. Perhaps an exchange as those work differently and often don't have an overlay or even a negative overlay.
 
Andy_Ross said:
The bad parts are Biden

NBC News: When does it become the trump economy?

Donald Trump: It partially is right now, and I really mean this. I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1977087291819516415
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The longer Trump's in power the more it will be his economy. There will come a time when most recognize what this actually means, then the 'bad parts are Biden' will ring hollow. Trump will of course try to spin it as being a good economy, but he can only fool some of the people all of the time.

Trump said there would economic pain for some of us. I'm hoping he was more right then he realizes. The average American might not understand economics, but they do understand pain. How much more can they take? My fantasy is that tariffs, deportations, tax cuts and big budgets actually turn out to be good for the economy in the long run, and Trump gets confirmation of this just as he is voted out because everybody's still hurting and nobody understands economics! Then the incoming Democrat administration takes credit for it getting better.
 
Andy_Ross said:
The bad parts are Biden

NBC News: When does it become the trump economy?

Donald Trump: It partially is right now, and I really mean this. I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy.
Click to expand...
I think I've been spoiled by fictional villains always being intelligent. The Palpatines, the Littlefingers, the Sarumen, the Moriarties...they're smart. They use guile and intellect, they persuade, they seduce, they weave brilliant webs of deception.

Trump is like a five year old with his mouth stuffed full of stolen cookies exclaiming through a shower of crumbs that it was the dog that raided the cookie jar. The crapulence of his villainy is an insult in itself.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
The longer Trump's in power the more it will be his economy. There will come a time when most recognize what this actually means, then the 'bad parts are Biden' will ring hollow.
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Oh, it won't be just Biden. He'll shift blame to the blue states, immigrants, democrats in the legislature, Antifa, the deep state, China, those penguins on the Heard and McDonald islands (they know what they did), etc, etc.

Off the top of my head, he's already said that the U.S. economy has been wrecked by:
Biden (of course)
Bad trade deals with other countries (I'm rolling several things into this one)
Immigrants
DEI
Transgender costs (I think he only said that once)
Overregulation
"The Climate Hoax"
The Federal Reserve rate

. . . so he'll have plenty of scapegoat targets to work with in future years.
 
dasmiller said:
Oh, it won't be just Biden. He'll shift blame to the blue states, immigrants, democrats in the legislature, Antifa, the deep state, China, those penguins on the Heard and McDonald islands (they know what they did), etc, etc.

Off the top of my head, he's already said that the U.S. economy has been wrecked by:
Biden (of course)
Bad trade deals with other countries (I'm rolling several things into this one)
Immigrants
DEI
Transgender costs (I think he only said that once)
Overregulation
"The Climate Hoax"
The Federal Reserve rate

. . . so he'll have plenty of scapegoat targets to work with in future years.
Click to expand...
Anyone but him and his crackpot fascist minions.
 
TragicMonkey said:
I think I've been spoiled by fictional villains always being intelligent. The Palpatines, the Littlefingers, the Sarumen, the Moriarties...they're smart. They use guile and intellect, they persuade, they seduce, they weave brilliant webs of deception.

Trump is like a five year old with his mouth stuffed full of stolen cookies exclaiming through a shower of crumbs that it was the dog that raided the cookie jar. The crapulence of his villainy is an insult in itself.
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True, but you are missing is that intelligent people are supporitng and aiding him, thining they can exploit and use him for their own purposes.
dasmiller said:
Oh, it won't be just Biden. He'll shift blame to the blue states, immigrants, democrats in the legislature, Antifa, the deep state, China, those penguins on the Heard and McDonald islands (they know what they did), etc, etc.

Off the top of my head, he's already said that the U.S. economy has been wrecked by:
Biden (of course)
Bad trade deals with other countries (I'm rolling several things into this one)
Immigrants
DEI
Transgender costs (I think he only said that once)
Overregulation
"The Climate Hoax"
The Federal Reserve rate

. . . so he'll have plenty of scapegoat targets to work with in future years.
Click to expand...
You are forgetting the most obivious and common scapegoat of them all: The Jews.
We are definently hearing Anti Semitic rumblings in MAGA, and they will only grow stronger. Aand if they are strong enouhg, Trump will not hesistate to turn on the Jews.The man will do anything to stay in power.
All this is just more proof of my contention the chances are small this will have a peaceful ending.
A lot of people will have to choose between freedom and democracy and their pacifism; they can;t have both.
I also feel that some on the left will catch the disease but that is anothr story.
 
LiteBright said:
...Does the site say where they are getting these numbers from?...
Click to expand...

I'm not a gambler period. I don't even play Powerball or Lotto. The site says:

oddschecker​

Launched in 1999 in the UK, oddschecker is now a leading betting odds comparison site serving millions of users globally. With the legalization of sports betting in the United States, oddschecker provides industry-leading picks and insights, AI-powered tools, and education to help you be the best bettor you can be. Oddschecker
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The odds quoted -- I don't know where they get them -- seem to indicate trump is likely to remain in office until 2028. I read on another website, which I can't re-find, the odds of trump leaving us before 2028 are probably not too good. They mentioned that as president, trump will get all kinds of medical care not available to the average person. That makes handicapping his longevity tricky.
 
CDC has been specifically targeted in the layoffs, it will become non functional.
Trump is out of destroy the medical communitry becuase he blames them, because of COVID for his defeat. That this will end up killing a huge number of Americans troubles him not in the least.
My real despaire is so many in the GOP are willing to go along with him to keep their power.
 
MAGAS now calling the CDC Communist Democratic Comission.
GOd, we have idiots and madmen running the country.
And IMHO a lot of the people supporting them because they think they can use them to get their ends are going to be suprrised when the mob turns on them...as the mob will.
 
dudalb said:
MAGAS now calling the CDC Communist Democratic Comission.
GOd, we have idiots and madmen running the country.
And IMHO a lot of the people supporting them because they think they can use them to get their ends are going to be suprrised when the mob turns on them...as the mob will.
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Yes, but what about your occasionally-stated contention that all this will not end peacefully? It’s been, what, three posts since the last time?
 
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Pretty sure it was originally Roy Cohn - and later reinforced by Roger Stone - who taught him…

1) Take credit for anything good that happens.

2) Blame someone else for anything bad that happens.

3) Never, ever admit a mistake.

Sad part is that despite how transparent this strategy is, it has worked well enough to make him president. Twice.
 
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