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Trump's Second Term

Minoosh said:
Yeah, I'm not sure about that ... yet. I try to avoid predictions, for a couple of reasons.

One is the whole "black swan" thing. Maybe Trump IS the black swan, yet I have this "waiting for the other shoe to drop" feeling.

Another thing I tell myself, there are ALWAYS unintended consequences. One example, my state went for Trump but also passed a constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights. It actually goes beyond "Roe v. Wade." It could not have been just Democrats approving it.

And then there are optics. I'm sure the administration will try to shut down the press when guys in balaclavas start ripping babies out of their mothers' arms. When grandparents are seized and taken God knows where with a promise they'll never see their kids or grandkids again.

All of this is reversible (except maybe climate change). My worry is not that this can't be fixed, but that the majority of U.S. citizens will not think there is anything that needs fixing.
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part of the dismantling here is to ensure that even if a majority of americans don't like the direction, they're so disenfranchised and impoverished that they can't do anything about it. and that's not to discount how many dems are also captured by the oligarchs pulling the republican strings.

as far as fixing it, these aren't the kind of problems that elected lawmakers will rigorously debate away. when it comes to defeating fascists, i'm only aware of one way that's ever worked.
 
So Zelensky in, Putin Out.

He's like a child. You didn't say something nice so you are not my friend.
Until next week anyway.

Trump on Zelenskyy: "We had a good call. We talked about different things. We had a very good call. I think a very strategic call. We've been helping them and we'll continue to help them. It's a pretty tough situation. We'll see what happens. I told you I was very unhappy with my call with President Putin. It just seems like he wants to go all the way and just keep killing people. No good. It's not good. I wasn't happy with him."
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1941516989832331421
 
Mojo said:
Isn't it the intended ones you need to worry about?
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Who says I'm not? My point is action-reaction. As effects ripple through the population people will respond. I'm not *worried* about unintended consequences, I'm relying on them!

I worked in journalism a long time but mostly as an editor. I need a refresher on the hard-nosed stuff - "follow the money." What legally they have to disclose, what databases to access. How to cultivate sources, use spreadsheets fluently, submit a proper FOI form. Anyone can do it and I hope more people learn how.

For example, it turns out the bill helps all Social Security recipients with an income less than $75K a year. But the bottom 20 percent of Social Security recipients won't get a benefit. That's because they are so poor they pay no federal income tax.

Is this fair? Discuss. Some poor person is about to be shattered if they thought *they* were going to get a break.

Something weirder, though: CBS news says: Social Security will still be taxed but most recipients will be eligible for a tax deduction of $6,000.

Looking at that I realize they use the word *deduction.* There's a world of difference between a deduction and a credit. I'm actually not sure which it is, but the MSM says deduction. So I'm going with that.

If you get $2,700 a month ($32,400 a year), you can deduct $6,000 from your income. To me, it seems you're still taxed on $26,400. But in common parlance do people believe this was sold as "no tax on Social Security"?

So a REACTION I would love to see is more people becoming literate about how the federal government handles things.

I'm almost certain that if you delve into this bill it rewards red states and punishes blue states. Trump would not be able to help himself. But it's going to take a lot of work to ferret out any such punishment.

Speaking of ferrets, Elon Musk would probably be a good source to cultivate.

ETA: Apologies if this is old - I'm just seeing reports.
 
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What am I getting wrong? A bunch of people are criticizing the political *tone* of an email crowing about these amazing benefits. But as far as I see it, they're getting into the weeds about how this doesn't technically end the taxing of Social Security.

And NOT getting into the difference between a deduction and a credit!

Sure, if you're living on $2,700 a month, a $6,000 credit would eliminate your tax burden.

If you're living on $2,700 a month, you will be taxed not on $32,400 but $26,400. *They still owe 12 percent of that* or $3,120*

If I'm wrong I'll look terrible. But not sure I am.

ETA: In fairness, they are being given a tax break of about $768. But based on language from the Trump administration they think they're saving $3,888.
 
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With respect to the massive $175 billion given to ICE, it's possible the funding could turn the organization into a highly efficient one that, by using a variety of sources locates, arrests, and deports every person who is in the USA illegally and has been criminally charged and convicted. With an estimated 12-16 million in the States illegally and as of October 2024 about half a million of them with criminal convictions, the budget allows for $350,000 for each convicted person.

Unfortunately, I doubt this will happen. I'm quite concerned what ICE will do with its huge budget.
 
dirtywick said:
part of the dismantling here is to ensure that even if a majority of americans don't like the direction, they're so disenfranchised and impoverished that they can't do anything about it. and that's not to discount how many dems are also captured by the oligarchs pulling the republican strings.

as far as fixing it, these aren't the kind of problems that elected lawmakers will rigorously debate away. when it comes to defeating fascists, i'm only aware of one way that's ever worked.
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Violence, yes, but don't underestimate the power of propaganda.

I don't know if I'd call the Shah of Iran a fascist but he did just kind of melt away. (To be replaced by something worse, IMIO. Hoping they'll melt away or get bought off).

Stories move people. Narratives. We can all make content.
 
Blue Mountain said:
With respect to the massive $175 billion given to ICE, it's possible the funding could turn the organization into a highly efficient one that, by using a variety of sources locates, arrests, and deports every person who is in the USA illegally and has been criminally charged and convicted. With an estimated 12-16 million in the States illegally and as of October 2024 about half a million of them with criminal convictions, the budget allows for $350,000 for each convicted person.

Unfortunately, I doubt this will happen. I'm quite concerned what ICE will do with its huge budget.
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They're not talking about convicted people. They're talking about *everyone*. Also "conservatives" think there are 60 million, don't ask me why. They think they are removing 60M people from the country.

They will all be convicted of a misdemeanor, probably in a plea deal so they can't challenge it. Then they will all be "convicted criminals." Visa overstay is not a crime but soon will be.

I don't know how you find someone guilty of a misdemeanor if you can't prove they're in the country illegally. It's a negative proof. So they will plead guilty.

Somewhere in here business is going to squawk, But Trump will continue to restrain ICE in local districts.

They may also have a hard time finding personnel. Border agents were going to double, I think it was 5K to 10K, bill was passed, it never happened. Turnover was high and they couldn't hire fast enough. But those guys were often constrained to within 100 miles of the border which would make it a tougher hire.

Plus I think there's going to be a lot of corruption.
 
Minoosh said:
They're not talking about convicted people. They're talking about *everyone*. Also "conservatives" think there are 60 million, don't ask me why. They think they are removing 60M people from the country.

They will all be convicted of a misdemeanor, probably in a plea deal so they can't challenge it. Then they will all be "convicted criminals." Visa overstay is not a crime but soon will be.

I don't know how you find someone guilty of a misdemeanor if you can't prove they're in the country illegally. It's a negative proof. So they will plead guilty.

Somewhere in here business is going to squawk, But Trump will continue to restrain ICE in local districts.

They may also have a hard time finding personnel. Border agents were going to double, I think it was 5K to 10K, bill was passed, it never happened. Turnover was high and they couldn't hire fast enough. But those guys were often constrained to within 100 miles of the border which would make it a tougher hire.

Plus I think there's going to be a lot of corruption.
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Bet on it. Trump is involved. The bigger story will be how soon the whole Ponzi scheme that is the Trump administration is going to collapse like one of Trump's casinos, inevitably taking the USA with it.

Trump may end up being shot against a village wall by partisans while trying to escape the country, and have his rotting corpse strung up from a gas station canopy for public humiliation. And his fawning handlers could easily suffer similar fates. But none of that will alleviate the cesspit that the USA will be in by that time.

So what are you going to do about it now?
 
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