Why would anyone expect the post-WW2 order to last forever? The circumstances that created it are radically different from circumstances now. The world order needs some rearranging.
Apparently, Trump works on having a border through the middle of the
Atlantic Eastern American Ocean.
The US has a trade deficit with the EU. We sell them fewer goods than they sell us. It's already the case that we aren't as dependent on their markets as they are on ours.
For one, US tariffs don't apply to our exports.
But trade wars go both ways. Europe is not going to let the US lead a trade war unilaterally. It would be better for the US to make better products at competitive prices themselves instead of leaving it to the Chines and Europeans.
For another, have you really thought about the logic of tariffs applied to goods that the government is buying?
Why on Earth should governments consider taxing themselves?
And lastly, European nations will keep buying stuff like the F-35 because 1) we make really good weapons, 2) economies of scale mean that we're competitive on price, 3) defense products are often in service for decades, one presidential term isn't going to be the deciding factor.
First of all, the US now makes it abundantly clear that you cannot rely on it as an ally. Maybe the next president may friendly, but the one after that may again not feel obligated to honour agreements. Even if weapons are not under tariffs, we can’t be sure if the weapons will be available for us when we need them, say if Trump decides that Putin is a bigger friend than Europe, if we have to defend Greenland, or Canada invokes article 5.
There is no doubt that Trump’s actions will blackmail Europe to continue buying US weapons in the short term, but in the long run Europe will beef up its own arms production, and buy it even if it more expensive, because of these strategic considerations.
HE DID! He spent his whole first term telling them to ramp up defense spending. And did they listen? No, they did not.
Not true. All countries increased their spending, and Denmark reached the target that Trump had set the first time. But then he changes the goalposts, and now we need to spend even more, which we will, but it takes time.
I'm not sure you understand what Putin wants. It isn't actually territory.
It is actually. You haven’t read his treatise where he explains that Russia has a historical destiny to be great again and recover everything from the Zarist empire. He thinks that Ukraine is not even a land, but an integral part of Russia where the Russian civilisation was born, and Ukrainians are a subhuman life form called “Little Russians”.
The claim that he has felt threatened from Ukraine or NATO is only a pretext that is accepted by his Western friends.
Whatever Putin wants? Hardly. Putin doesn't want Trump to push for more European defense spending. Putin really doesn't want the US to increase fossil fuel production. And yet, that's something Trump has consistently pushed for.
True. Putin and Trump have different goals, but that Putin can make Trump pick Putin’s own influencer for security chief, dictate a peace agreement in Ukraine that benefits Russia, and sets the stage for future expansions into the rest of Ukraine, and the Baltics, certainly shows that Trump is being played.
