Time stamped prediction

Lucianarchy said:
:rolleyes:
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So, are you conceding that you haven't made a prediction yet?

There were two major attacks on the news yesterday. I thought of you ;) . You could have made your prediction for yesterday and claimed these attacks. And of course, 'planned' opens up all the failed attempts that may come up too.

How are we to distinguish your so-called 'prediction' from all the other events in the world?
 
Is it worth continuing debate with this troll? Obviously there si no way It will clarify or specify because It cannot - that would show that It has no powers. This "prediction" gives the usual amount of "blagging room" needed to pretend they were on the money.

Nice reasoned and balanced response Luci...you must be damn proud.
 
OK.

I feel something like Lucianarchy being wrong is being planned for 14th February 2004. On this message board.

Million dollars here I come.

Peace.

I also predict that thaiboxerken will miss the intended sarcasm of this post.
 
Actually, I think most people here are thinking that Lucianarchy's "prediction" will come true. With the general nature of his prediction, however, the odds are against Luci's prediction not coming true.

Ok, I have a strong feeling that there will be an attack this Sunday. I don't know where, bu there will be an attack. Who wants to bet that my prediction doesn't pan out?
 
Re: Re: Time stamped prediction

Darwin'sGoat said:
OK.

I feel something like Lucianarchy being wrong is being planned for 14th February 2004. On this message board.

Million dollars here I come.

Peace.

I also predict that thaiboxerken will miss the intended sarcasm of this post.
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My prediction has come true!!!
 
Ratman_tf said:

How are we to distinguish your so-called 'prediction' from all the other events in the world?
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No answer?

I could have predicted that. How Psironic!
 
Please! Do I sense surprise? The creature known as Luci will claim success if Aunt Mabel overpays newspaper monger Abdul by 5p.
 
So, I am constantly checking this thread to see if there are some clarifications as to what will happen on the 14th of February 2004.

But noooo. Nothing. And actually it isn't even a surprise.

Here is my prediction:

- There will be no further clarification.

A few more:

- There will happen something on 14th of February 2004 that Lucianarchy will use to fit the prediction.

- I, and many, many others will still not believe in Lucy's superpowers.

- I, and many, many others will be even more convinced about somebody's [enter appropriate expression].

Do I win?





Yawn
 
I can't help but think you're all being a little unfair.

If we assume that Luci genuinely believes in this premonition, it's a bit ridiculous to demand details that he/she/it didn't sense (times, places, type of attack and so forth).

It's very easy to rant, shout and mock about lack of definition. But perhaps - just perhaps - the premonition simply didn't include these details. I see no rule that says 'all predictions of future events must list every possible detail'. Perhaps only vagueness comes through?

My suggestion is to wait and see. If something 'big' (ie, hugely out of the ordinary) happens, then Luci can chalk up a hit. It could still be coincidence, but the probability of such a coincidence is fairly low. If it's just the run-of-the-mill suicide bombings and ambushes on troops in Iraq, you can ignore the prediction as insignificant.

For those that are waiting to pounce on me: I am a skeptic that doesn't believe in premonitions. I just think that most of the ranting that followed the OP is depressingly predictable and is simply judging the post without having actually waited until the date in question.
 
I guess one thing that I'm uncomfortable about with letting Lucianarchy get away with a vague prediction is that it will be difficult to judge the significance of the prediction.

If, for example, Nuclear war breaks out between North Korea and the Unites States on 14 February 2004, then fair enough that's significant but does it prove Lucianarchy's ability to predict, mean that Lucianarchy "got lucky" (though clearly in this case there's no lucky involved) or is a member of the North Korean politburo and is planning the attack as we speak (in which case I suggest that there are other items of more importance than posting to skeptical message boards) ?

If nothing out of the ordinary happens, is Lucianarchy going to say "sorry guys - guess I was wrong - there's no precognicence" ?

Of course the reverse is also true. I WILL not say "sorry Lucianarchy - guess I was wrong - you can see into the future". I would expect a much more controlled experiment than some vague prediction.


So for everyine involved, this whole thing will be a colossal waste of time and effort
 
The Don said:
Of course the reverse is also true. I WILL not say "sorry Lucianarchy - guess I was wrong - you can see into the future". I would expect a much more controlled experiment than some vague prediction.
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True. But I'm sure you'd agree that a hit is a hit. If something extraordinary happens, you can say 'Okay, that's a hit', without saying 'yes, I believe that you're magic'.
 
An Infinite Ocean said:
I can't help but think you're all being a little unfair.

If we assume that Luci genuinely believes in this premonition, it's a bit ridiculous to demand details that he/she/it didn't sense (times, places, type of attack and so forth).
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All true but ...

If Luci were not a troll would you not expect such a reasoned from Luci itself?
 
Yep...

An Infinite Ocean said:
I just think that most of the ranting that followed the OP is depressingly predictable and is simply judging the post without having actually waited until the date in question.
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Guilty as charged - and not sorry about it either - as Luci thinks that she (is she a she?) has this miraculous gift. Yet the result of this miraculous gift - her premonition - is so vague that it adds up to little more than a feeling of "something is going to happen".

What is a rational mind to make of a claimed supernatural power that is akin to simple "worrying"?

I for one will be back on 02/14 to assess the results of the premonition.

Barkhorn.
 
Hannibal said:


Nice reasoned and balanced response Luci...you must be damn proud.
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I am sure you'll get over it, poppet.

There is nothing more to add. But don't let me stop you.
 
Lucianarchy said:


There is nothing more to add. But don't let me stop you.
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Are you saying that there is nothing more to add to your prediction? That your "vision" (or however you make the prediction) has no further potential details that could help narrow the prediction?

I am perfectly willing to accept that what you have posted is all that there is. I just don't think that it is all that useful an ability, if it is indeed an ability.
 
An Infinite Ocean said:
I can't help but think you're all being a little unfair.

If we assume that Luci genuinely believes in this premonition, it's a bit ridiculous to demand details that he/she/it didn't sense (times, places, type of attack and so forth).
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We're asking for clarification. There may be none, but Luci hasn't said anything either way. That there is or is not more information.

In cold reading, it's better to leave as much ambiguous as possible so more options are availalble to fit.

It's very easy to rant, shout and mock about lack of definition. But perhaps - just perhaps - the premonition simply didn't include these details. I see no rule that says 'all predictions of future events must list every possible detail'. Perhaps only vagueness comes through?
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If so, Luci hasn't said.

My suggestion is to wait and see. If something 'big' (ie, hugely out of the ordinary) happens, then Luci can chalk up a hit. It could still be coincidence, but the probability of such a coincidence is fairly low. If it's just the run-of-the-mill suicide bombings and ambushes on troops in Iraq, you can ignore the prediction as insignificant.
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Then it becomes a subjective judgement on what makes an attack fit the prediction. How do you know Luci didn't 'see' a small attack? Or a planned attack that will fail?

Even a full thermonuclear exchange or invasion by aliens wouldn't qualify as a hit becuase we just don't have enough information to link ANYTHING to this so-called predicion yet.

For those that are waiting to pounce on me: I am a skeptic that doesn't believe in premonitions. I just think that most of the ranting that followed the OP is depressingly predictable and is simply judging the post without having actually waited until the date in question.
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At this point, with what information we have been given, I feel justified in judging that this is not a prediction yet. Not a prediction that is validatable. It's just too damn vague to be anything but fishing for results at this point.
 
Lucianarchy said:


There is nothing more to add. But don't let me stop you.
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So is there nothing more to your 'prediction'?

Luci, I'm going to say that an attack will happen or be planned on or near the 14th as well. Not because I'm psychic, but because things like that happen

all

the

time.

Your so-called prediction is indistinguishable from guesswork.
 
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